Imperfection Information, Optimal Monetary Policy and Informational Consistency

This paper examines the implications of imperfect information (II) for optimal monetary policy with a consistent set of informational assumptions for the modeller and the private sector an assumption we term the informational consistency. We use an estimated simple NK model from Levine et al. (2012), where the assumption of symmetric II significantly improves the fit of the model to US data to assess the welfare costs of II under commitment, discretion and simple Taylor-type rules. Our main results are: first, common to all information sets we find significant welfare gains from commitment only with a zero-lower bound constraint on the interest rate. Second, optimized rules take the form of a price level rule, or something very close across all information cases. Third, the combination of limited information and a lack of commitment can be particularly serious for welfare. At the same time we find that II with lags introduces a ‘tying ones hands’ effect on the policymaker that may improve welfare under discretion. Finally, the impulse response functions under our most extreme imperfect information assumption (output and inflation observed with a two-quarter delay) exhibit hump-shaped behaviour and the fiscal multiplier is significantly enhanced in this case

Jews and the English countryside: some notable contributions to conservation, access, and order

As a Jewish practising solicitor and a regular rambler, the author developed an interest in the law of public rights of way.1 It was part of the English legal system, but one that was not in the standard curriculum for law students. Eventually he became the Honorary Solicitor to the Ramblers Association, which campaigned for greater lawful access to the countryside, especially by protecting the network of public rights of way. This was at a time when a doyen of the rambling movement, Benny Rothman, was attracting much publicity because he was held up as an example of a campaigner who had fought for what is known as “the Right to Roam”, which is explained later. He was also Jewish, and he became an inspiration to the author. Jews in England have largely been urban in their day to day way of life, but there are exceptions. The contributions to nature conservation and countryside recreation activities of those mentioned in this article are widely accepted by countryside managers to be significant. This paper is an attempt to bring together some strands of their influence and to explain the important effect they have had, both on the English countryside evident today and in the manner in which many people can enjoy, appreciate, and understand the countryside. With the exception of Jewish writers such as Siegfried Sassoon (1886–1967) and artists such as David Bomberg (1890–1957) in whose works nature or landscape often play an important role, the interest of most British Jewry had been confided to taking a stroll in the countryside. It is likely that one of the factors which prevented Jews from ‘mingling’ with nature was the prohibition on travelling on the Sabbath and on leaving the borders of cities and towns on religious grounds. Hence the interest of some Jews, mainly secular or less Orthodox, in the countryside had grown under the influence of the non-Jewish milieu. The particular areas to be examined are firstly nature conservation; secondly, the need to record the existing rights of the public which were being forgotten owing to changes in lifestyle, particularly as a result of modern transportation; thirdly, to achieve public access to the countryside; fourthly, the establishment of National Parks. It is in most of these that one finds notable contributions. In spite of the diverse backgrounds of the people involved, this paper does not purport to be able to find a specifically Jewish link between any of the persons identified, ranging from the wealthy to a Communist agitator, from modern Orthodox to possible convert to Christianity, and from researcher to campaigner. Their only common denominator was their Jewish creed and love of nature. I make no claim for the influence of religion, although a tenable theory is that the Jews as a people are stubborn and inquisitive by nature. In addition, Jews are said to be a “stiff-necked people” (Exodus 32:9)

A Floating versus Managed Exchange Rate Regime in a DSGE Model of India

We first develop a two-bloc model of an emerging open economy interacting with the rest of the world calibrated using Indian and US data. The model features a financial accelerator and is suitable for examining the effects of financial stress on the real economy. Three variants of the model are highlighted with increasing degrees of financial frictions. The model is used to compare two monetary interest rate regimes: domestic Inflation targeting with a floating exchange rate (FLEX(D)) and a managed exchange rate (MEX). Both rules are characterized as a Taylor-type interest rate rules. MEX involves a nominal exchange rate target in the rule and a constraint on its volatility. We find that the imposition of a low exchange rate volatility is only achieved at a significant welfare loss if the policymaker is restricted to a simple domestic inflation plus exchange rate targeting rule. If on the other hand the policymaker can implement a complex optimal rule then an almost fixed exchange rate can be achieved at a relatively small welfare cost. This finding suggests that future research should examine alternative simple rules that mimic the fully optimal rule more closely.DSGE model, Indian economy, monetary interest rate rules, floating versus managed exchange rate, financial frictions

The impact of the World Health Organization 8-steps in wheelchair service provision in wheelchair users in a less resourced setting: A cohort study in Indonesia Health systems and services in low and middle income settings

Background: For people who have a mobility impairment, access to an appropriate wheelchair is an important step towards social inclusion and participation. The World Health Organization Guidelines for the Provision of Manual Wheelchairs in Less Resourced Settings emphasize the eight critical steps for appropriate wheelchair services, which include: referral, assessment, prescription, funding and ordering, product preparation,fitting and adjusting, user training, and follow-up and maintenance/repairs. The purpose of this study was to investigate how the provision of wheelchairs according to the World Health Organization's service provision process by United Cerebral Palsy Wheels for Humanity in Indonesia affects wheelchair recipients compared to wait-listed controls. Methods: This study used a convenience sample (N = 344) of Children, Children with proxies, Adults, and Adults with proxies who were on a waiting list to receive a wheelchair as well as those who received one. Interviews were conducted at baseline and a 6 month follow-up to collect the following data: Demographics and wheelchair use questions, the World Health Organization Quality of Life-BREF, Functional Mobility Assessment, Craig Handicap Assessment Recording Technique Short Form. The Wheelchair Assessment Checklist and Wheelchair Skills Test Questionnaire were administered at follow up only. Results: 167 participants were on the waiting list and 142 received a wheelchair. Physical health domain in the World Health Organization Quality of Life-BREF improved significantly for women who received a wheelchair (p = 0.044) and environmental health improved significantly for women and men who received a wheelchair as compared to those on the waiting list (p < 0.017). Satisfaction with the mobility device improved significantly for Adults with proxies and Children with proxies as compared to the waiting list (p < 0.022). Only 11 % of Adults who received a wheelchair reported being able to perform a "wheelie". The condition of Roughrider wheelchairs was significantly better than the condition of kids wheelchairs for Children with proxies as measured by the Wheelchair Assessment Checklist (p = 0.019). Conclusions: Wheelchair provision according to World Health Organization's 8-Steps in a less-resourced setting has a range of positive outcomes including increased satisfaction with the mobility device and better quality of life. Wheelchair provision service could be improved by providing more hours of wheelchair skills training. There is a need for outcome measures that are validated across cultures and languages

Instrumental vetoes for transient gravitational-wave triggers using noise-coupling models: The bilinear-coupling veto

LIGO and Virgo recently completed searches for gravitational waves at their initial target sensitivities, and soon Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo will commence observations with even better capabilities. In the search for short duration signals, such as coalescing compact binary inspirals or "burst" events, noise transients can be problematic. Interferometric gravitational-wave detectors are highly complex instruments, and, based on the experience from the past, the data often contain a large number of noise transients that are not easily distinguishable from possible gravitational-wave signals. In order to perform a sensitive search for short-duration gravitational-wave signals it is important to identify these noise artifacts, and to "veto" them. Here we describe such a veto, the bilinear-coupling veto, that makes use of an empirical model of the coupling of instrumental noise to the output strain channel of the interferometric gravitational-wave detector. In this method, we check whether the data from the output strain channel at the time of an apparent signal is consistent with the data from a bilinear combination of auxiliary channels. We discuss the results of the application of this veto on recent LIGO data, and its possible utility when used with data from Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo.Comment: Minor changes; To appear in Phys. Rev.