RAMESES publication standards: realist syntheses

PMCID: PMC3558331This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

An 8-Year, High-Resolution Reanalysis of Atmospheric CO2 Mixing Ratios Based on OCO-2 and GOSAT-ACOS Retrievals

The NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) reanalysis blends OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2) and GOSAT-ACOS (Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite-Atmospheric Carbon Observations from Space) retrievals (top) with GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) model predictions (bottom) to estimate the full 3D (three-dimensional) state of CO2 every 3 hours (middle). This poster describes monthly atmospheric growth rates derived from the reanalysis and an application to aircraft data with the potential to aid bias correction

Progress in Atmospheric Carbon Monitoring Using NASA's GEOS Model and Data from the OCO and GOSAT Missions

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) produces a variety of carbon products based the synthesis of satellite remote sensing data and outputs of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). This includes bottom-up surface fluxes due to fossil fuel emissions, biomass burning, terrestrial biospheric exchange, and ocean exchangeconstrained by measurements of nighttime lights, fire radiative power, normalized difference vegetation index, and ocean color. These fluxes are the basis of top-down estimates of carbon concentrations and fluxes. In particular, the GMAO system processes retrievals of column carbon dioxide (XCO2) from GOSAT and OCO-2 to produce a high-resolution, long-term global analysis of CO2 in three dimensions every 6 hours. Here, we discuss the potential applications of such products for satellite intercomparison and evaluation against independent, non-coincident data. We also highlight the ability to provide monthly global atmospheric growth rates inferred from the assimilated CO2 concentration product. Finally, we discuss the challenges facing such products including bias correction and the estimation and analysis of model transport errors

Enterprise Education Competitions: A Theoretically Flawed Intervention?

The demand for including enterprise in the education system, at all levels and for all pupils is now a global phenomenon. Within this context, the use of competitions and competitive learning activities is presented as a popular and effective vehicle for learning. The purpose of this chapter is to illustrate how a realist method of enquiry – which utilises theory as the unit of analysis – can shed new light on the assumed and unintended outcomes of enterprise education competitions. The case developed here is that there are inherent flaws in assuming that competitions will ‘work’ in the ways set out in policy and guidance. Some of the most prevalent stated outcomes – that competitions will motivate and reward young people, that they will enable the development of entrepreneurial skills, and that learners will be inspired by their peers – are challenged by theory from psychology and education. The issue at stake is that the expansion of enterprise education policy into primary and secondary education increases the likelihood that more learners will be sheep dipped in competitions, and competitive activities, without a clear recognition of the potential unintended effects. In this chapter, we employ a realist-informed approach to critically evaluate the theoretical basis that underpins the use of competitions and competitive learning activities in school-based enterprise education. We believe that our findings and subsequent recommendations will provide those who promote and practice the use of competitions with a richer, more sophisticated picture of the potential flaws within such activities.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Stakeholder perspectives on new ways of delivering unscheduled health care: the role of ownership and organisational identity

<b>Rationale, aims and objectives</b>: To explore stakeholder perspectives of the implementation of a new, national integrated nurse-led telephone advice and consultation service (NHS 24), comparing the views of stakeholders from different health care organisations. <b>Methods</b>: Semi-structured interviews with 26 stakeholders including partner organisations located in primary and secondary unscheduled care settings (general practitioner (GP) out-of-hours co-operative; accident and emergency department; national ambulance service), members of NHS 24 and national policymakers. Attendance at key meetings, documentary review and email implementation diaries provided a contextual history of events with which interview data could be compared. <b>Results</b>: The contextual history of events highlighted a fast-paced implementation process, with little time for reflection. Key areas of partner concern were increasing workload, the clinical safety of nurse triage and the lack of communication across the organisations. Concerns were most apparent within the GP out-of-hours co-operative, leading to calls for the dissolution of the partnership. Accident and emergency and ambulance service responses were more conciliatory, suggesting that such problems were to be expected within the developmental phase of a new organisation. Further exploration of these responses highlighted the sense of ownership within the GP co-operative, with GPs having both financial and philosophical ownership of the co-operative. This was not apparent within the other two partner organisations, in particular the ambulance service, which operated on a regional model very similar to that of NHS 24. <b>Conclusions</b>: As the delivery of unscheduled primary health care crosses professional boundaries and locations, different organisations and professional groups must develop new ways of partnership working, developing trust and confidence in each other. The results of this study highlight, for the first time, the key importance of understanding the professional ownership and identity of individual organisations, in order to facilitate the most effective mechanisms to enable that partnership working

The Ability of GeoCarb to Constrain the Interannual Variability of Carbon Gases over the Amazon

We perform a number of idealized assimilation experiments with the GEOS constituent data assimilation system to test the ability of GeoCarb retrievals of CO, CO2, and CH4 to constrain the interannual variability of these gases over the Amazon. Retrievals for instruments on other satellites which observe in similar channels (e.g. MOPITT, GOSAT, and OCO-2) are limited due to persistent cloud coverage. Given its ability to sample the same location multiple times in one day, the expectation is that GeoCarb retrievals will return more soundings than those from previous missions. The goal of the assimilation experiments is to understand which scanning strategies lead to the best sounding densities and thus have the best chance of constraining interannual variability in the carbon species. The experiments each begin by picking a given year at random from a nature run (i.e., a model simulation meant to represent the truth). The model fields are sampled according to a given strategy and then screened to account for cloud coverage. Next, we pick another year at random and assimilate the synthetic GeoCarb samples into the GEOS model for that year. The output of the assimilation, 6-hourly, 3D fields of each constituent, is then directly comparable to the nature run. This comparison allows us to evaluate the ability of GeoCarb measurements to constrain the interannual variability of each gas

A realist evaluation of student use of a virtual reality smartphone application in undergraduate legal education

This paper provides a realist evaluation of the Open Justice virtual reality (VR) smartphone app, designed to develop presentation skills for students on an undergraduate legal education module. This work addresses two research questions: what proportion of students engaged with the Open Justice app, and what worked for whom in what circumstances and why? Questionnaire and interviews were conducted and analysed using a realist evaluation approach. This approach is particularly pertinent to the evaluation of how emerging educational technologies are used, as it can point to the potential affordances of a technological intervention, in addition to assessing its current use. In keeping with the realist evaluation approach, data analysis was completed using the context–mechanism–outcome framework. The findings suggest that more than half of students did not engage with the app during their studies, but this was not surprising as it was a pilot project into using VR with our students and such innovations can be difficult to manage in distance education contexts. Those who did engage with it recognised the potential of immersive VR to contribute to legal skills development, but they found the application of the technology, in this context, to be of limited use. By utilising a realist evaluation framework, this study contributes to the emerging field of programme theory‐based evaluations of educational technology, which might form the basis of further research

Tracer Transport Differences: Challenges and Implications for Flux Inversions

This poster demonstrates that different chemistry transport models (CTMs), each extensively validated, can have significant differences in the predicted transport of long-lived trace gases. For carbon dioxide (CO2), this difference is 0.5 ppm or greater in the total column. The value exceeds the nominal retrieval error requirements of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2), which were chosen based on the understanding of the accuracy necessary to infer surface fluxes of CO2 on regional and seasonal scales. This suggests that the transport errors of CTMs play a considerable role in the surface flux inversion of satellite-based measurements of long-lived trace gases and the interpretation of the inferred fluxes requires a careful understanding of this role

The liminality of trajectory shifts in institutional entrepreneurship

In this paper, we develop a process model of trajectory shifts in institutional entrepreneurship. We focus on the liminal periods experienced by institutional entrepreneurs when they, unlike the rest of the organization, recognize limits in the present and seek to shift a familiar past into an unfamiliar and uncertain future. Such periods involve a situation where the new possible future, not yet fully formed, exists side-by-side with established innovation trajectories. Trajectory shifts are moments of truth for institutional entrepreneurs, but little is known about the underlying mechanisms of how entrepreneurs reflectively deal with liminality to conceive and bring forth new innovation trajectories. Our in-depth case study research at CarCorp traces three such mechanisms (reflective dissension, imaginative projection, and eliminatory exploration) and builds the basis for understanding the liminality of trajectory shifts. The paper offers theoretical implications for the institutional entrepreneurship literature

Towards a Model Climatology of Relative Humidity in the Upper Troposphere for Estimation of Contrail and Contrail-Induced Cirrus

The formation of contrails and contrail cirrus is very sensitive to the relative humidity of the upper troposphere. To reduce uncertainty in an estimate of the radiative impact of aviation-induced cirrus, a model must therefore be able to reproduce the observed background moisture fields with reasonable and quantifiable fidelity. Here we present an upper tropospheric moisture climatology from a 26-year ensemble of simulations using the GEOS CCM. We compare this free-running model's moisture fields to those obtained from the MLS and AIRS satellite instruments, our most comprehensive observational databases for upper tropospheric water vapor. Published comparisons have shown a substantial wet bias in GEOS-5 assimilated fields with respect to MLS water vapor and ice water content. This tendency is clear as well in the GEOS CCM simulations. The GEOS-5 moist physics in the GEOS CCM uses a saturation adjustment that prevents supersaturation, which is unrealistic when compared to in situ moisture observations from MOZAIC aircraft and balloon sondes as we will show. Further, the large-scale satellite datasets also consistently underestimate super-saturation when compared to the in-situ observations. We place these results in the context of estimates of contrail and contrail cirrus frequency