Homicide impunity in Brazil between 2006 and 2016

OBJECTIVE: To describe the level and temporal trends of homicide impunity in Brazil. METHODS: This is an ecological study that calculated two impunity indexes by dividing the total number of homicides committed in a 5-year period by the number of individuals arrested for murder (homicide impunity) or any other cause (general impunity) two years after this period. The Prais-Winsten linear regression model with serial autocorrelation correction was used to estimate the temporal trend of the impunity indexes. RESULTS: Between 2009 and 2014, 328,714 homicides were recorded in Brazil, but only 84,539 prisoners were serving sentences for this kind of crime in 2016. This shows that the number of homicides in Brazil exceeded in 244,175 the number of individuals in prisons for this crime. The impunity index ranged from 3.9 in 2006 to 3.3 in 2014. All states reached values above 1. Rio de Janeiro stood out negatively, with values above 20. São Paulo, Santa Catarina, and Distrito Federal showed the lowest impunity indexes for homicide, with values below 2. Eight states showed a downward trend in the overall impunity index. CONCLUSIONS: Most Brazilian states presented extremely high impunity indexes values. However, from 2010 to 2012, Brazilian society started to effectively combat impunity for serious violent crimes, including homicide. In São Paulo, this positive trend arose in the mid-1990s and that state currently shows impunity indexes values similar to those of developed countries.OBJETIVO: Descrever o nível e a tendência temporal da impunidade do homicídio no Brasil. MÉTODOS: Trata-se de estudo ecológico no qual dois índices de impunidade foram calculados a partir do número total de homicídios em determinado período, de cinco anos, dividido pelo número de indivíduos na prisão por homicídio (impunidade do homicídio) ou por qualquer causa (impunidade geral) dois anos após o final desse período. O modelo de regressão linear com correção de autocorrelação serial de Prais-Winsten foi utilizado para estimar a tendência temporal dos índices de impunidade. RESULTADOS: No Brasil, entre 2009 e 2014, foram identificados 328.714 homicídios, contudo apenas 84.539 presos cumpriam pena por esse tipo de delito em 2016, revelando que houve 244.175 mais casos de homicídio no Brasil do que presos por esse crime. O índice de impunidade do homicídio variou de 3,9, em 2006, a 3,3 em 2014. Todos os estados apresentaram valores acima de 1. O Rio de Janeiro destacou-se negativamente, com valores acima de 20. Os menores índices de impunidade do homicídio foram encontrados nos estados de São Paulo, Santa Catarina e Distrito Federal, com valores abaixo de 2. Oito estados mostraram tendência de redução no índice de impunidade geral. CONCLUSÕES: A maioria dos estados brasileiros apresentou valores altíssimos nos índices de impunidade. No entanto, detectamos um sinal positivo de que a sociedade brasileira começou, a partir de 2010–2012, a combater de forma efetiva a impunidade dos crimes violentos graves, incluindo o homicídio. São Paulo iniciou essa tendência positiva em meados dos anos 1990 e apresenta atualmente índices de impunidade similares aos dos países desenvolvidos

Homicídio e impunidade: análise ecológica em nível de estado no Brasil

OBJECTIVE: To assess a new impunity index and variables that have been found to predict variation in homicide rates in other geographical levels as predictive of state-level homicide rates in Brazil. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional ecological study. Data from the mortality information system relating to the 27 Brazilian states for the years 1996 to 2005 were analyzed. The outcome variables were taken to be homicide victim rates in 2005, for the entire population and for men aged 20-29 years. Measurements of economic and social development, economic inequality, demographic structure and life expectancy were analyzed as predictors. An "impunity index", calculated as the total number of homicides between 1996 and 2005 divided by the number of individuals in prison in 2007, was constructed. The data were analyzed by means of simple linear regression and negative binomial regression. RESULTS: In 2005, state-level crude total homicide rates ranged from 11 to 51 per 100,000; for young men, they ranged from 39 to 241. The impunity index ranged from 0.4 to 3.5 and was the most important predictor of this variability. From negative binomial regression, it was estimated that the homicide victim rate among young males increased by 50% for every increase of one point in this ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Classic predictive factors were not associated with homicides in this analysis of state-level variation in Brazil. However, the impunity index indicated that the greater the impunity, the higher the homicide rate.OBJETIVO: Evaluar un nuevo índice de impunidad y variables que predicen variación en tasas de homicidio en otros niveles geográficos como predictivos de las tasas de homicidio a nivel de estados en Brasil. MÉTODOS: Estudio ecológico transversal. Fueron analizados datos del Sistema de Informaciones sobre Mortalidad referentes a los 27 estados brasileros en el período de 1996 a 2005. Fueron consideradas variables de resultado de tasas de victimización por homicidio en 2005, para la población entera y para hombres de 20-29 años. Fueron analizados como predoctores medidas de desarrollo económico y social, desigualdad económica, estructura demográfica y expectativa de vida. Fue elaborado un índice de impunidad calculado por el número total de homicidios entre 1996-2005 dividido por el número de personas en la prisión en 2007. Los datos fueron analizados empleándose regresión linear simple y regresión binomial negativa. RESULTADOS: En 2005, tasas brutas de homicidio a nivel de estado variaron de 11 a 51 por 100.000 y aquellas para hombres jóvenes de 39 a 241. El índice de impunidad varió entre 0,4 y 3,5, siendo el predictivo más importante de esta variable. En la regresión binomial negativa, se estimó aumento de 50% en la tasa de homicidio en hombres jóvenes para cada aumento de un punto en esta relación. CONCLUSIONES: Predictivos clásicos no estaban asociados con la variación en las tasas de homicidio en este análisis a nivel estatal en Brasil. Mientras tanto, el índice de impunidad indicó que cuanto mayor era la impunidad, mayor era la tasa de homicidio.OBJETIVO: Avaliar um novo índice de impunidade e variáveis que predizem variação em taxas de homicídio em outros níveis geográficos como preditivos das taxas de homicídio no nível de estados no Brasil. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico transversal. Foram analisados dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade referentes aos 27 estados brasileiros no período de 1996 a 2005. Foram consideradas variáveis de desfecho taxas de vitimização por homicídio em 2005 para a população inteira e para homens de 20-29 anos. Foram analisados como preditores medidas de desenvolvimento econômico e social, desigualdade econômica, estrutura demográfica e expectativa de vida. Foi construído um índice de impunidade calculado pelo número total de homicídios entre 1996-2005 dividido pelo número de pessoas na prisão em 2007. Os dados foram analisados empregando-se regressão linear simples e regressão binomial negativa. RESULTADOS: Em 2005, taxas brutas de homicídio em nível de estado variaram de 11 a 51 por 100.000 e aquelas para homens jovens de 39 a 241. O índice de impunidade variou entre 0,4 e 3,5, sendo o preditor mais importante dessa variabilidade. Na regressão binomial negativa, estimou-se aumento de 50% na taxa de homicídio em homens jovens para cada aumento de um ponto nessa razão. CONCLUSÕES: Preditores clássicos não estavam associados com a variação nas taxas de homicídio nessa análise em nível estadual no Brasil. Entretanto, o índice de impunidade indicou que quanto maior a impunidade, maior a taxa de homicídio

Accuracy of two methods to detect the presence of halitosis: the volatile sulfur compounds concentration in the mouth air and the information from a close person

This study aimed to analyze the accuracy of two methods for detecting halitosis, the organoleptic assessment by a trained professional (OA) with volatile sulfur compounds (VSC) measurement via Halimeter® (Interscan Corporation) and information obtained from a close person (ICP). Methodolody:Participants were patients and companions who visited a university hospital over one year period to perform digestive endoscopy. A total of 138 participants were included in the VSC test, whose 115 were also included in the ICP test. ROC curves were constructed to establish the best VSC cut-off points. Results:The prevalence of halitosis was 12% (95%CI: 7% to 18%) and 9% (95%CI 3% to 14%) for the OA and ICP, respectively. At the cut-off point >80 parts per billion (ppb) VSC, the prevalence of halitosis was 18% (95%CI: 12% to 25%). At the cut-off point >65 ppb VSC, sensitivity and specificity were 94% and 76%, respectively. At the cut-off point >140 ppb, sensitivity was 47% and specificity 96%. For the ICP, sensitivity was 14% and specificity 92%. Conclusions:VSC presents high sensitivity at the cut-off point of >65 ppb and high specificity at the cut-off point of >140 ppb. ICP had high specificity, but low sensitivity. The OA can express either occasional or chronic bad breath, whereas the ICP can be a potential instrument to detect chronic halitosis

Associação entre procedimentos preventivos no serviço público de odontologia e a prevalência de cárie dentária

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between preventive care provided in public dental services and young people's oral health. METHODS: Oral health data on 4,033 young people aged 15 to 19 years living in 85 municipalities of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Southern Brazil, were obtained from the national oral health survey "Saúde Bucal Brasil 2003" for the period 2002-2003. The following variables were studied: age, gender, income, education, time elapsed since last dental visit, reason for dental visit, and water fluoridation. Data on dental care services were obtained from the national database of public health services. Statistical analysis was performed using multilevel logistic regression. RESULTS: Youngsters from the 21 municipalities with the lowest preventive care (scaling + fluoride + sealants) rates per 100 inhabitants were 2.27 (95% CI: 1.45;3.56) more likely to have non-filled dental cavities than those from the 21 municipalities with the highest care rates. After adjustment for a number of individual and contextual factors this likelihood decreased to 1.76 (95% CI: 1.13;2.72). The variance attributable to variables at municipal level was 14.1% for the empty model and decreased to 10.5% for the fully adjusted model. CONCLUSIONS: Rio Grande do Sul public dental services may have contributed for the reduction in the number of non-filled cavities in young people. However, it was not possible to detect the impact of this service on total dental caries experience.OBJETIVO: Avaliar a associação entre as atividades odontológicas preventivas do serviço público de odontologia e a saúde bucal de jovens. MÉTODOS: Foram utilizados dados de 4.033 jovens de 15 a 19 anos, de 85 municípios do estado do Rio Grande do Sul, obtidos no inquérito epidemiológico Saúde Bucal Brasil, realizado no período de 2002-2003. As variáveis estudadas foram: idade, sexo renda, escolaridade, tempo desde a última visita ao dentista, motivo da visita, e presença de flúor na água de abastecimento. Dados sobre as atividades odontológicas foram extraídos da base de dados do Sistema de Informações Ambulatoriais do Sistema Único de Saúde. Para análise estatística foi utilizada a regressão logística multinível. RESULTADOS: Os indivíduos dos 21 municípios com menores taxas de procedimentos (por 100 habitantes) de procedimentos individuais preventivos (limpeza + flúor + selante) tiveram 2,27 (IC 95%: 1,45;3,56) vezes mais chance de ter uma cárie não restaurada do que residentes dos 21 municípios com maiores taxas. Essa chance permaneceu mesmo depois de ajustada por fatores individuais e contextuais, mas decresceu para 1,76 (IC 95%: 1,13;2,72). A proporção da variabilidade atribuível aos municípios foi de 14,1% para o modelo vazio e 10,5% para o modelo cheio. CONCLUSÕES: O serviço público de odontologia no Rio Grande do Sul pode ter contribuído para a redução no número de cáries não restauradas em jovens. Porém, não foi possível detectar influência desse serviço na experiência total da cárie

High quality (certainty) evidence changes less often than low-quality evidence, but the magnitude of effect size does not systematically differ between studies with low versus high-quality evidence

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES It is generally believed that evidence from low quality of evidence generate inaccurate estimates about treatment effects more often than evidence from high (certainty) quality evidence (CoE). As a result, we would expect that (a) estimates of effects of health interventions initially based on high CoE change less frequently than the effects estimated by lower CoE (b) the estimates of magnitude of effect size differ between high and low CoE. Empirical assessment of these foundational principles of evidence-based medicine has been lacking. METHODS We reviewed the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from January 2016 through May 2021 for pairs of original and updated reviews for change in CoE assessments based on the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) method. We assessed the difference in effect sizes between the original versus updated reviews as a function of change in CoE, which we report as a ratio of odds ratio (ROR). We compared ROR generated in the studies in which CoE changed from very low/low (VL/L) to moderate/high (M/H) versus M/H to VL/L. Heterogeneity and inconsistency were assessed using the tau and I$^{2}$ statistic. We also assessed the change in precision of effect estimates (by calculating the ratio of standard errors) (seR), and the absolute deviation in estimates of treatment effects (aROR). RESULTS Four hundred and nineteen pairs of reviews were included of which 414 (207 × 2) informed the CoE appraisal and 384 (192 × 2) the assessment of effect size. We found that CoE originally appraised as VL/L had 2.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19-4.12; p = 0.0091] times higher odds to be changed in the future studies than M/H CoE. However, the effect size was not different (p = 1) when CoE changed from VL/L → M/H [ROR = 1.02 (95% CI: 0.74-1.39)] compared with M/H → VL/L (ROR = 1.02 [95% CI: 0.44-2.37]). Similar overlap in aROR between the VL/L → M/H versus M/H → VL/L subgroups was observed [median (IQR): 1.12 (1.07-1.57) vs. 1.21 (1.12-2.43)]. We observed large inconsistency across ROR estimates (I$^{2}$  = 99%). There was larger imprecision in treatment effects when CoE changed from VL/L → M/H (seR = 1.46) than when it changed from M/H → VL/L (seR = 0.72). CONCLUSIONS We found that low-quality evidence changes more often than high CoE. However, the effect size did not systematically differ between the studies with low versus high CoE. The finding that the effect size did not differ between low and high CoE indicate urgent need to refine current EBM critical appraisal methods

Calcium and vitamin D supplementation and/or periodontal therapy in the treatment of periodontitis among Brazilian pregnant women: protocol of a feasibility randomised controlled trial (the IMPROVE trial)

Background: Periodontitis is a common oral inflammation, which is a risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Intakes of vitamin D and calcium are inversely associated with occurrence and progression of periodontitis. This study aims to assess the feasibility of a multi-component intervention, including provision of milk powder supplemented with calcium and vitamin D and periodontal therapy (PT), for improving maternal periodontal health and metabolic and inflammatory profiles of low-income Brazilian pregnant women with periodontitis. Methods: The IMPROVE trial is a feasibility randomised controlled trial (RCT) with a 2 × 2 factorial design with a parallel process evaluation. Pregnant women with periodontitis, aged 18–40 years and with < 20 gestational weeks (n = 120) were recruited and randomly allocated into four groups: (1) fortified sachet (vitamin D and calcium) and powdered milk plus PT during pregnancy, (2) placebo sachet and powdered milk plus PT during pregnancy, (3) fortified sachet (vitamin D and calcium) and powdered milk plus PT after delivery and (4) placebo sachet and powdered milk plus PT after delivery. Dentists and participants are blinded to fortification. Acceptability of study design, recruitment strategy, random allocation, data collection procedures, recruitment rate, adherence and attrition rate will be evaluated. Data on serum levels of vitamin D, calcium and inflammatory biomarkers; clinical periodontal measurements; anthropometric measurements; and socio-demographic questionnaires are collected at baseline, third trimester and 6–8 weeks postpartum. Qualitative data are collected using focus group, for analysis of favourable factors and barriers related to study adherence. Discussion: Oral health and mineral/vitamin supplementation are much overlooked in the public prenatal assistance in Brazil and of scarcity of clinical trials addressing these issues in low and middle-income countries,. To fill this gap the present study was designed to assess the feasibility of a RCT on acceptability of a multi-component intervention combining conventional periodontal treatment and consumption of milk fortified with calcium-vitamin D for improving periodontal conditions and maternal metabolic and inflammation status, among Brazilian low-income pregnant women with periodontitis. Thus, we hope that this relatively low-cost and safe multicomponent intervention can help reduce inflammation, improve maternal periodontal health and metabolic profile and consequently prevent negative gestational outcomes