Predicting restatements in macroeconomic indicators using accounting info

Abstract Earnings growth dispersion contains information about trends in labor reallocation, unemployment, and, ultimately, aggregate output. We find that initial macroeconomic estimates released by government statistical agencies do not fully incorporate this information. As a consequence, aggregate earnings growth dispersion predicts future restatements in nominal and real GDP growth (and unemployment). Out-of-sample tests suggest that early GDP growth estimates can be significantly improved by incorporating earnings growth dispersion information. Such improvements are important for many economic decisions that rely on the timely and accurate macroeconomic estimates, including monetary policy, bank regulation, and economic forecasting.

A case for taxing education

Optimal taxation, Re-distribution, Education, Inequality,