Impacts of Ageing Population on Monetary and Exchange Rate Managements in Singapore

This paper finds that the ageing of the population in Singapore will cause a reversal of the current net Central Provident Fund (CPF) contribution into a substantial net CPF withdrawal from 2025, with a peak occurring at 2035. The result is qualitatively robust to changes in the underlying assumptions of the projection. The paper then highlights the implications of this change on the exchange rate and monetary managements in Singapore. First, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)’s ability to influence Singapore’s exchange rate will be greatly hampered. Second, the net CPF withdrawal will mean sustained liquidity injection into (instead of the usual liquidity drain from) the economy. To avoid unnecessary inflation, the MAS has to find a sustainable way to mob up the excess liquidity due to the sustained liquidity injection. As a simple reversal of MAS’s current foreign exchange market operation will result in substantial shrinkage of foreign reserves, the paper proposes the issuance of government bonds to achieve the dual objectives of mobbing up the excess liquidity and avoiding the shrinkage of foreign reserves. This measure will also help the bond market development in Singapore. Finally, the paper proposes two other measures that can help maintain MAS’s influence on Singapore’s exchange rate to a reasonable level in the longer future.Ageing Population, Central Provident Fund, Exchange Rate System, Monetary Policy, Singapore.

On the Maintenance Costs and Exit Costs of the Peg in Hong Kong

This paper attempts to pioneer a discussion on the exit and maintenance costs of the Currency Board System (CBS) in Hong Kong, and hopes to invite more debate on the issue. It suggests that the exit costs will depend on the timing of an exit, whether there are supplementary packages to mitigate the exit costs, and the choice of an alternative exchange rate system. In particular, it suggests that the monitoring band system favored by Williamson (2000) could help to reduce the exit costs. In addition, the paper points out that there are ways to reduce both the exit and maintenance costs. It then proposes a reform that could benefit the economy regardless of whether the policy maker eventually chooses to continue with or abandon the peg. The study is not only crucial to Hong Kong, but also important to other economies with a CBS as well as to the debate on the choice of exchange rate system.currency board, monitoring band, exchange rate policy, Hong Kong, Singapore.

Exchange-Rate Systems and Interest-Rate Behavior: The Experience of Hong Kong and Singapore

Published in International Review of Economics & Finance, 2006, 15 (2), 212-227, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2004.11.004</p

Intersectional identities and dilemmas in interactions with health care professionals: An interpretative phenomenological analysis of British gay Muslim men

Individual interviews were conducted with six self-identified Muslim gay men living in London focusing on their experience of health service use. Transcripts were analysed using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis. Analysis identified two major themes: namely, the close(d) community and self-management with health care professionals, detailing participants’ concerns regarding the risks of disclosing sexuality; and the authentic identity: “you’re either a Muslim or you’re gay, you can’t be both”, which delineated notions of incommensurate identity. Analysis highlights the need for health practitioners to have insight into the complexity of intersectional identities, identity disclosure dynamics, and the negative = consequences of assumptions made, be these heteronormative or faith-related

Impact of COVID-19 on 1-Year Survival Outcomes in Hepatocellular Carcinoma:A Multicenter Cohort Study

IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe disruption of healthcare services worldwide and interrupted patients' access to essential services. During the first lockdown, many healthcare services were shut to all but emergencies. In this study, we aimed to determine the immediate and long-term indirect impact of COVID-19 health services utilisation on hepatocellular cancer (HCC) outcomes.MethodsA prospective cohort study was conducted from 1 March 2020 until 30 June 2020, correlating to the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Patients were enrolled from tertiary hospitals in the UK and Germany with dedicated HCC management services. All patients with current or past HCC who were discussed at a multidisciplinary meeting (MDM) were identified. Any delay to treatment (DTT) and the effect on survival at one year were reported.ResultsThe median time to receipt of therapy following MDM discussion was 49 days. Patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages-A/B disease were more likely to experience DTT. Significant delays across all treatments for HCC were observed, but delay was most marked for those undergoing curative therapies. Even though severe delays were observed in curative HCC treatments, this did not translate into reduced survival in patients.ConclusionInterruption of routine healthcare services because of the COVID-19 pandemic caused severe delays in HCC treatment. However, DTT did not translate to reduced survival. Longer follow is important given the delay in therapy in those receiving curative therapy

Measurement of the diffractive structure function in deep inelastic scattering at HERA

This paper presents an analysis of the inclusive properties of diffractive deep inelastic scattering events produced in $ep$ interactions at HERA. The events are characterised by a rapidity gap between the outgoing proton system and the remaining hadronic system. Inclusive distributions are presented and compared with Monte Carlo models for diffractive processes. The data are consistent with models where the pomeron structure function has a hard and a soft contribution. The diffractive structure function is measured as a function of \xpom, the momentum fraction lost by the proton, of $\beta$, the momentum fraction of the struck quark with respect to \xpom, and of $Q^2$. The \xpom dependence is consistent with the form \xpoma where $a~=~1.30~\pm~0.08~(stat)~^{+~0.08}_{-~0.14}~(sys)$ in all bins of $\beta$ and $Q^2$. In the measured $Q^2$ range, the diffractive structure function approximately scales with $Q^2$ at fixed $\beta$. In an Ingelman-Schlein type model, where commonly used pomeron flux factor normalisations are assumed, it is found that the quarks within the pomeron do not saturate the momentum sum rule.Comment: 36 pages, latex, 11 figures appended as uuencoded fil

Suicide with psychiatric diagnosis and without utilization of psychiatric service

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Considerable attention has been focused on the study of suicides among those who have received help from healthcare providers. However, little is known about the profiles of suicide deceased who had psychiatric illnesses but made no contact with psychiatric services prior to their death. Behavioural model of health service use is applied to identify factors associated with the utilization of psychiatric service among the suicide deceased.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>With respect to completed suicide cases, who were diagnosed with a mental disorder, a comparison study was made between those who had (contact group; n = 52; 43.7%) and those who had not made any contact (non-contact group; n = 67; 56.3%) with a psychiatrist during the final six months prior to death. A <it>sample </it>of 119 deceased cases aged between 15 and 59 with at least one psychiatric diagnosis assessed by the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR (SCID I) were selected from a psychological autopsy study in Hong Kong.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The contact and non-contact group could be well distinguished from each other by "<it>predisposing</it>" variables: age group & gender, and most of the "<it>enabling"</it>, and "<it>need" </it>variables tested in this study. Multiple logistic regression analysis has found four factors are statistically significantly associated with non-contact suicide deceased: (i) having non-psychotic disorders (OR = 13.5, 95% CI:2.9-62.9), (ii) unmanageable debts (OR = 10.5, CI:2.4-45.3), (iii) being full/partially/self employed at the time of death (OR = 10.0, CI:1.6-64.1) and (iv) having higher levels of social problem-solving ability (SPSI) (OR = 2.0, CI:1.1-3.6).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The non-contact group was clearly different from the contact group and actually comprised a larger proportion of the suicide population that they could hardly be reached by usual individual-based suicide prevention efforts. For this reason, both universal and strategic suicide prevention measures need to be developed specifically in non-medical settings to reach out to this non-contact group in order to achieve better suicide prevention results.</p

Suicide among adults aged 30–49: A psychological autopsy study in Hong Kong

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A surge in suicide rates in middle age people in Hong Kong and many Asian countries was recently observed. However, there is a paucity of suicide research on this subgroup of people in Asia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The next-of-kin of 85 suicide cases and 85 community subjects aged 30–49 years were interviewed by a psychological autopsy approach. Information was triangulated by interview notes, coroner's court files, and police investigation reports.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A multiple logistic regression analysis identified the following risk factors for suicide among the middle age people in Hong Kong: the presence of at least one psychiatric disorder (OR = 37.5, 95% CI 11.5–121.9, p < 0.001), indebtedness (OR = 9.4, 95% CI 2.2–40.8, p < 0.01), unemployment (OR = 4.8, 95% CI 1.3–17.5, p < 0.05), never married (OR = 4.2, 95% CI 1.1–16.3, p < 0.05), and lived alone (OR = 3.9, 95% CI 1.2–13.4, p < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The data show that socio-economical factors had a strong impact on suicide in the target group. Further research is needed to explore any positive qualities that protect the middle-aged from suicide. The prevention of suicide in the middle-aged requires multiple strategies.</p

Observation of hard scattering in photoproduction events with a large rapidity gap at HERA

Events with a large rapidity gap and total transverse energy greater than 5 GeV have been observed in quasi-real photoproduction at HERA with the ZEUS detector. The distribution of these events as a function of the $\gamma p$ centre of mass energy is consistent with diffractive scattering. For total transverse energies above 12 GeV, the hadronic final states show predominantly a two-jet structure with each jet having a transverse energy greater than 4 GeV. For the two-jet events, little energy flow is found outside the jets. This observation is consistent with the hard scattering of a quasi-real photon with a colourless object in the proton.Comment: 19 pages, latex, 4 figures appended as uuencoded fil