Extension of Nakagawa & Schielzeth's R2GLMM to random slopes models

1.Nakagawa & Schielzeth extended the widely used goodness-of-fit statistic R2 to apply to generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). However, their R2GLMM method is restricted to models with the simplest random effects structure, known as random intercepts models. It is not applicable to another common random effects structure, random slopes models.<p></p> 2.I show that R2GLMM can be extended to random slopes models using a simple formula that is straightforward to implement in statistical software. This extension substantially widens the potential application of R2GLMM.<p></p&gt

The coefficient of determination R2 and intra-class correlation coefficient from generalized linear mixed-effects models revisited and expanded

The coefficient of determinationR2quantifies the proportion of varianceexplained by a statistical model and is an important summary statisticof biological interest. However, estimatingR2for generalized linear mixedmodels (GLMMs) remains challenging. We have previously introduced a ver-sion ofR2that we calledR2GLMMfor Poisson and binomial GLMMs, but notfor other distributional families. Similarly, we earlier discussed how to estimateintra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) using Poisson and binomial GLMMs.Inthis paper, we generalize our methodsto allothernon-Gaussian distributions,in particular to negative binomial and gamma distributions that are commonlyused formodellingbiological data. Whileexpanding ourapproach,we highlighttwo useful concepts for biologists, Jensen’s inequality and the delta method,both of which help us in understanding the properties of GLMMs. Jensen’sinequality has important implications for biologically meaningful interpretationof GLMMs, whereas the delta method allows a general derivation of varianceassociated with non-Gaussian distributions. We also discuss some special con-siderations for binomial GLMMs with binary or proportion data. We illustratethe implementation of our extension by worked examples from the field of ecol-ogy and evolution in theRenvironment. However, our method can be usedacross disciplines and regardless of statistical environments

High dose atorvastatin associated with increased risk of significant hepatotoxicity in comparison to simvastatin in UK GPRD cohort

Background and Aims: Occasional risk of serious liver dysfunction and autoimmune hepatitis during atorvastatin therapy has been reported. We compared the risk of hepatotoxicity in atorvastatin relative to simvastatin treatment. Methods: The UK GPRD identified patients with a first prescription for simvastatin [164,407] or atorvastatin [76,411] between 1997 and 2006, but with no prior record of liver disease, alcohol-related diagnosis, or liver dysfunction. Incident liver dysfunction in the following six months was identified by biochemical value and compared between statin groups by Cox regression model adjusting for age, sex, year treatment started, dose, alcohol consumption, smoking, body mass index and comorbid conditions. Results: Moderate to severe hepatotoxicity [bilirubin >60μmol/L, AST or ALT >200U/L or alkaline phosphatase >1200U/L] developed in 71 patients on atorvastatin versus 101 on simvastatin. Adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] for all atorvastatin relative to simvastatin was 1.9 [95% confidence interval 1.4–2.6]. High dose was classified as 40–80mg daily and low dose 10–20mg daily. Hepatotoxicity occurred in 0.44% of 4075 patients on high dose atorvastatin [HDA], 0.07% of 72,336 on low dose atorvastatin [LDA], 0.09% of 44,675 on high dose simvastatin [HDS] and 0.05% of 119,732 on low dose simvastatin [LDS]. AHRs compared to LDS were 7.3 [4.2–12.7] for HDA, 1.4 [0.9–2.0] for LDA and 1.5 [1.0–2.2] for HDS. Conclusions: The risk of hepatotoxicity was increased in the first six months of atorvastatin compared to simvastatin treatment, with the greatest difference between high dose atorvastatin and low dose simvastatin. The numbers of events in the analyses were small

Evolution of drug-tolerant nematode populations in response to density reduction

Resistance to xenobiotics remains a pressing issue in parasite treatment and global agriculture. Multiple factors may affect the evolution of resistance, including interactions between life-history traits and the strength of selection imposed by different drug doses. We experimentally created replicate selection lines of free-living Caenorhabditis remanei exposed to Ivermectin at high and low doses to assess whether survivorship of lines selected in drug-treated environments increased, and if this varied with dose. Additionally, we maintained lines where mortality was imposed randomly to control for differences in density between drug treatments and to distinguish between the evolutionary consequences of drug-treatment versus ecological processes due to changes in density-dependent feedback. After 10 generations, we exposed all of the selected lines to high-dose, low-dose and drug-free environments to evaluate evolutionary changes in survivorship as well as any costs to adaptation. Both adult and juvenile survival were measured to explore relationships between life-history stage, selection regime and survival. Intriguingly, both drug-selected and random-mortality lines showed an increase in survivorship when challenged with Ivermectin; the magnitude of this increase varied with the intensity of selection and life-history stage. Our results suggest that interactions between density-dependent processes and life history may mediate evolved changes in susceptibility to control measures

Estimating the size of dog populations in Tanzania to inform rabies control

Estimates of dog population sizes are a prerequisite for delivering effective canine rabies control. However, dog population sizes are generally unknown in most rabies-endemic areas. Several approaches have been used to estimate dog populations but without rigorous evaluation. We compare post-vaccination transects, household surveys, and school-based surveys to determine which most precisely estimates dog population sizes. These methods were implemented across 28 districts in southeast Tanzania, in conjunction with mass dog vaccinations, covering a range of settings, livelihoods, and religious backgrounds. Transects were the most precise method, revealing highly variable patterns of dog ownership, with human/dog ratios ranging from 12.4:1 to 181.3:1 across districts. Both household and school-based surveys generated imprecise and, sometimes, inaccurate estimates, due to small sample sizes in relation to the heterogeneity in patterns of dog ownership. Transect data were subsequently used to develop a predictive model for estimating dog populations in districts lacking transect data. We predicted a dog population of 2,316,000 (95% CI 1,573,000–3,122,000) in Tanzania and an average human/dog ratio of 20.7:1. Our modelling approach has the potential to be applied to predicting dog population sizes in other areas where mass dog vaccinations are planned, given census and livelihood data. Furthermore, we recommend post-vaccination transects as a rapid and effective method to refine dog population estimates across large geographic areas and to guide dog vaccination programmes in settings with mostly free roaming dog populations

An improved mosquito electrocuting trap that safely reproduces epidemiologically relevant metrics of mosquito human-feeding behaviours as determined by human landing catch

Background: Reliable quantification of mosquito host—seeking behaviours is required to determine the efficacy of vector control methods. For malaria, the gold standard approach remains the risky human landing catch (HLC). Here compare the performance of an improved prototype of the mosquito electrocuting grid trap (MET) as a safer alternative with HLC for measuring malaria vector behaviour in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Methods: Mosquito trapping was conducted at three sites within Dar es Salaam representing a range of urbanicity over a 7-month period (December 2012–July 2013, 168 sampling nights). At each site, sampling was conducted in a block of four houses, with two houses being allocated to HLC and the other to MET on each night of study. Sampling was conducted both indoors and outdoors (from 19:00 to 06:00 each night) at all houses, with trapping method (HLC and MET) being exchanged between pairs of houses at each site using a crossover design. Results: The MET caught significantly more Anopheles gambiae sensu lato than the HLC, both indoors (RR [95 % confidence interval (CI)]) = 1.47 [1.23–1.76], P < 0.0001 and outdoors = 1.38 [1.14–1.67], P < 0.0001). The sensitivity of MET compared with HLC did not detectably change over the course of night for either An. gambiae s.l. (OR [CI]) = 1.01 [0.94–1.02], P = 0.27) or Culex spp. (OR [CI]) = 0.99 [0.99–1.0], P = 0.17) indoors and declined only slightly outdoors: An. gambiae s.l. (OR [CI]) = 0.92 [0.86–0.99], P = 0.04), and Culex spp. (OR [CI]) = 0.99 [0.98–0.99], P = 0.03). MET-based estimates of the proportions of mosquitoes caught indoors (P i ) or during sleeping hours (P fl ), as well as the proportion of human exposure to bites that would otherwise occurs indoors (π i ), were statistically indistinguishable from those based on HLC for An. gambiae s.l. (P = 0.43, 0.07 and 0.48, respectively) and Culex spp. (P = 0.76, 0.24 and 0.55, respectively). Conclusions: This improved MET prototype is highly sensitive tool that accurately quantifies epidemiologically-relevant metrics of mosquito biting densities, behaviours and human exposure distribution

Quantifying fenbendazole and its metabolites in self-medicating wild red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus using an HPLC–MS–MS approach

On red grouse estates in the UK the nematode parasite Trichostrongylus tenuis is often controlled by application of grit medicated with the anthelmintic fenbendazole (FBZ). To date, assessment of the efficacy has been inhibited by the inability to quantify uptake of FBZ by the birds. We have developed a simple and sensitive HPLC–MS–MS method for detecting and quantifying FBZ and its metabolites from a 300 mg sample of red grouse liver. This method could be used to improve the efficacy of medicated grit treatment by allowing the identification of conditions and application methods that optimize the uptake of FBZ. With the necessary modifications, our method will also be applicable to other wildlife species where self-medication is used for parasite control

Comparing methods of assessing dog rabies vaccination coverage in rural and urban communities in Tanzania

Rabies can be eliminated by achieving comprehensive coverage of 70% of domestic dogs during annual mass vaccination campaigns. Estimates of vaccination coverage are, therefore, required to evaluate and manage mass dog vaccination programs; however, there is no specific guidance for the most accurate and efficient methods for estimating coverage in different settings. Here, we compare post-vaccination transects, school-based surveys, and household surveys across 28 districts in southeast Tanzania and Pemba island covering rural, urban, coastal and inland settings, and a range of different livelihoods and religious backgrounds. These approaches were explored in detail in a single district in northwest Tanzania (Serengeti), where their performance was compared with a complete dog population census that also recorded dog vaccination status. Post-vaccination transects involved counting marked (vaccinated) and unmarked (unvaccinated) dogs immediately after campaigns in 2,155 villages (24,721 dogs counted). School-based surveys were administered to 8,587 primary school pupils each representing a unique household, in 119 randomly selected schools approximately 2 months after campaigns. Household surveys were conducted in 160 randomly selected villages (4,488 households) in July/August 2011. Costs to implement these coverage assessments were $12.01,$66.12, and $155.70 per village for post-vaccination transects, school-based, and household surveys, respectively. Simulations were performed to assess the effect of sampling on the precision of coverage estimation. The sampling effort required to obtain reasonably precise estimates of coverage from household surveys is generally very high and probably prohibitively expensive for routine monitoring across large areas, particularly in communities with high human to dog ratios. School-based surveys partially overcame sampling constraints, however, were also costly to obtain reasonably precise estimates of coverage. Post-vaccination transects provided precise and timely estimates of community-level coverage that could be used to troubleshoot the performance of campaigns across large areas. However, transects typically overestimated coverage by around 10%, which therefore needs consideration when evaluating the impacts of campaigns. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of these different methods and make recommendations for how vaccination campaigns can be better monitored and managed at different stages of rabies control and elimination programs

Heritability of biting time behaviours in the major African malaria vector Anopheles arabiensis

Background: The use of insecticide-treated nets for malaria control has been associated with shifts in mosquito vector feeding behaviour including earlier and outdoor biting on humans. The relative contribution of phenotypic plasticity and heritability to these behavioural shifts is unknown. Elucidation of the mechanisms behind these shifts is crucial for anticipating impacts on vector control. Methods: A novel portable semi-field system (PSFS) was used to experimentally measure heritability of biting time in the malaria vector Anopheles arabiensis in Tanzania. Wild An. arabiensis from hourly collections using the human landing catch (HLC) method were grouped into one of 3 categories based on their time of capture: early (18:00–21:00), mid (22:00–04:00), and late (05:00–07:00) biting, and placed in separate holding cages. Mosquitoes were then provided with a blood meal for egg production and formation of first filial generation (F1). The F1 generation of each biting time phenotype category was reared separately, and blood fed at the same time as their mothers were captured host-seeking. The resultant eggs were used to generate the F2 generation for use in heritability assays. Heritability was assessed by releasing F2 An. arabiensis into the PSFS, recording their biting time during a human landing catch and comparing it to that of their F0 grandmothers. Results: In PSFS assays, the biting time of F2 offspring (early: 18:00–21:00, mid: 22:00–04:00 or late: 05:00–07:00) was significantly positively associated with that of their wild-caught F0 grandmothers, corresponding to an estimated heritability of 0.110 (95% CI 0.003, 0.208). F2 from early-biting F0 were more likely to bite early than F2 from mid or late-biting F0. Similarly, the probability of biting late was higher in F2 derived from mid and late-biting F0 than from early-biting F0. Conclusions: Despite modest heritability, our results suggest that some of the variation in biting time is attributable to additive genetic variation. Selection can, therefore, act efficiently on mosquito biting times, highlighting the need for control methods that target early and outdoor biting mosquitoes