Error-free milestones in error prone measurements

A predictor variable or dose that is measured with substantial error may possess an error-free milestone, such that it is known with negligible error whether the value of the variable is to the left or right of the milestone. Such a milestone provides a basis for estimating a linear relationship between the true but unknown value of the error-free predictor and an outcome, because the milestone creates a strong and valid instrumental variable. The inferences are nonparametric and robust, and in the simplest cases, they are exact and distribution free. We also consider multiple milestones for a single predictor and milestones for several predictors whose partial slopes are estimated simultaneously. Examples are drawn from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, in which a BA degree acts as a milestone for sixteen years of education, and the binary indicator of military service acts as a milestone for years of service.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS233 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Non-Simply-Connected Gauge Groups and Rational Points on Elliptic Curves

We consider the F-theory description of non-simply-connected gauge groups appearing in the E8 x E8 heterotic string. The analysis is closely tied to the arithmetic of torsion points on an elliptic curve. The general form of the corresponding elliptic fibration is given for all finite subgroups of E8 which are applicable in this context. We also study the closely-related question of point-like instantons on a K3 surface whose holonomy is a finite group. As an example we consider the case of the heterotic string on a K3 surface having the E8 gauge symmetry broken to (E6 x SU(3))/Z3 or SU(9)/Z3 by point-like instantons with Z3 holonomy.Comment: 15 pages, 2 embedded figures, some spurious U(1)'s remove

The Absorption of Sound in Suspensions and Emulsions. I. Water Fog in Air

The suspended particles are approximated by spheres and the diffraction problem for a fluid sphere in a fluid medium is solved taking into consideration viscosity and thermal conduction. The results are discussed numerically for water droplets in air and a satisfactory agreement with Knudsen's attenuation measurements in water fog is found

Isolation in the construction of natural experiments

A natural experiment is a type of observational study in which treatment assignment, though not randomized by the investigator, is plausibly close to random. A process that assigns treatments in a highly nonrandom, inequitable manner may, in rare and brief moments, assign aspects of treatments at random or nearly so. Isolating those moments and aspects may extract a natural experiment from a setting in which treatment assignment is otherwise quite biased, far from random. Isolation is a tool that focuses on those rare, brief instances, extracting a small natural experiment from otherwise useless data. We discuss the theory behind isolation and illustrate its use in a reanalysis of a well-known study of the effects of fertility on workforce participation. Whether a woman becomes pregnant at a certain moment in her life and whether she brings that pregnancy to term may reflect her aspirations for family, education and career, the degree of control she exerts over her fertility, and the quality of her relationship with the father; moreover, these aspirations and relationships are unlikely to be recorded with precision in surveys and censuses, and they may confound studies of workforce participation. However, given that a women is pregnant and will bring the pregnancy to term, whether she will have twins or a single child is, to a large extent, simply luck. Given that a woman is pregnant at a certain moment, the differential comparison of two types of pregnancies on workforce participation, twins or a single child, may be close to randomized, not biased by unmeasured aspirations. In this comparison, we find in our case study that mothers of twins had more children but only slightly reduced workforce participation, approximately 5% less time at work for an additional child.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS770 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Reactivation of Limestone-Derived Sorbents using Hydration: Preliminary Results From a Fluidised Bed

A simple method of CO~2~ capture is by using the calcium looping cycle. The calcium looping cycle uses CaCO~3~ as a CO~2~ carrier, via the reversible reaction CaO(s) + CO~2~(g) = CaCO~3~(s), to extract CO2 from the exhaust stream and provide a pure stream of CO~2~ suitable for sequestration. 
A problem associated with the technology is that the capacity of the sorbent to absorb CO~2~ reduces significantly with the number of cycles of carbonation and calcination. The energy penalty of the cycle is considerably increased by cycling unreacted sorbent: hydration of unreactive sorbent has emerged as a promising strategy of reducing this penalty by regenerating the reactivity of exhausted sorbent.
A small atmospheric pressure fluidised bed reactor has been built and tested, that allows repeated cycling between two temperatures up to 1000 °C. 
Work presented here focuses on the effects of variation of the calcination temperature before hydration. Hydration has been found to more than double the reactivity of a spent sorbent cycled under the mildest conditions studied (calcination temperature of 840 °C). However, as calcination temperature is increased the observed reactivation decreases until little reactivation is observed for the sorbent cycled at 950 °C. The primary reason for this appears to be a substantial increase in friability of particles, with reactivity normalised for mass losses appearing similar independent of cycling temperature

Cross-screening in observational studies that test many hypotheses

We discuss observational studies that test many causal hypotheses, either hypotheses about many outcomes or many treatments. To be credible an observational study that tests many causal hypotheses must demonstrate that its conclusions are neither artifacts of multiple testing nor of small biases from nonrandom treatment assignment. In a sense that needs to be defined carefully, hidden within a sensitivity analysis for nonrandom assignment is an enormous correction for multiple testing: in the absence of bias, it is extremely improbable that multiple testing alone would create an association insensitive to moderate biases. We propose a new strategy called "cross-screening", different from but motivated by recent work of Bogomolov and Heller on replicability. Cross-screening splits the data in half at random, uses the first half to plan a study carried out on the second half, then uses the second half to plan a study carried out on the first half, and reports the more favorable conclusions of the two studies correcting using the Bonferroni inequality for having done two studies. If the two studies happen to concur, then they achieve Bogomolov-Heller replicability; however, importantly, replicability is not required for strong control of the family-wise error rate, and either study alone suffices for firm conclusions. In randomized studies with a few hypotheses, cross-split screening is not an attractive method when compared with conventional methods of multiplicity control, but it can become attractive when hundreds or thousands of hypotheses are subjected to sensitivity analyses in an observational study. We illustrate the technique by comparing 46 biomarkers in individuals who consume large quantities of fish versus little or no fish.Comment: 33 pages, 2 figures, 5 table

The asset-correlation parameter in Basel II for mortgages on single-family residences

Bank capital ; Risk management ; Basel capital accord ; Mortgages