Effects of rapid urbanisation on the urban thermal environment between 1990 and 2011 in Dhaka Megacity, Bangladesh

This study investigates the influence of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change on land surface temperature (LST) in Dhaka Megacity, Bangladesh during a period of rapid urbanisation. LST was derived from Landsat 5 TM scenes captured in 1990, 2000 and 2011 and compared to contemporaneous LULC maps. We compared index-based and linear spectral mixture analysis (LSMA) techniques for modelling LST. LSMA derived biophysical parameters corresponded more strongly to LST than those produced using index-based parameters. Results indicated that vegetation and water surfaces had relatively stable LST but it increased by around 2 °C when these surfaces were converted to built-up areas with extensive impervious surfaces. Knowledge of the expected change in LST when one land-cover is converted to another can inform land planners of the potential impact of future changes and urges the development of better management strategies

Predicting potential ranges of primary malaria vectors and malaria in northern South America based on projected changes in climate, land cover and human population

BACKGROUND: Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) as well as climate are likely to affect the geographic distribution of malaria vectors and parasites in the coming decades. At present, malaria transmission is concentrated mainly in the Amazon basin where extensive agriculture, mining, and logging activities have resulted in changes to local and regional hydrology, massive loss of forest cover, and increased contact between malaria vectors and hosts. METHODS: Employing presence-only records, bioclimatic, topographic, hydrologic, LULC and human population data, we modeled the distribution of malaria and two of its dominant vectors, Anopheles darlingi, and Anopheles nuneztovari s.l. in northern South America using the species distribution modeling platform Maxent. RESULTS: Results from our land change modeling indicate that about 70,000 km(2) of forest land would be lost by 2050 and 78,000 km(2) by 2070 compared to 2010. The Maxent model predicted zones of relatively high habitat suitability for malaria and the vectors mainly within the Amazon and along coastlines. While areas with malaria are expected to decrease in line with current downward trends, both vectors are predicted to experience range expansions in the future. Elevation, annual precipitation and temperature were influential in all models both current and future. Human population mostly affected An. darlingi distribution while LULC changes influenced An. nuneztovari s.l. distribution. CONCLUSION: As the region tackles the challenge of malaria elimination, investigations such as this could be useful for planning and management purposes and aid in predicting and addressing potential impediments to elimination. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1033-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users