Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network Models for Forecasting and Quantifying Uncertainty in Spatial-Temporal Data

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep learning models have become more common, RNNs have been used to forecast increasingly complicated systems. Dynamical spatio-temporal processes represent a class of complex systems that can potentially benefit from these types of models. Although the RNN literature is expansive and highly developed, uncertainty quantification is often ignored. Even when considered, the uncertainty is generally quantified without the use of a rigorous framework, such as a fully Bayesian setting. Here we attempt to quantify uncertainty in a more formal framework while maintaining the forecast accuracy that makes these models appealing, by presenting a Bayesian RNN model for nonlinear spatio-temporal forecasting. Additionally, we make simple modifications to the basic RNN to help accommodate the unique nature of nonlinear spatio-temporal data. The proposed model is applied to a Lorenz simulation and two real-world nonlinear spatio-temporal forecasting applications

Singlet Scalar Resonances and the Diphoton Excess

ATLAS and CMS recently released the first results of searches for diphoton resonances in 13 TeV data, revealing a modest excess at an invariant mass of approximately 750 GeV. We find that it is generically possible that a singlet scalar resonance is the origin of the excess while avoiding all other constraints. We highlight some of the implications of this model and how compatible it is with certain features of the experimental results. In particular, we find that the very large total width of the excess is difficult to explain with loop-level decays alone, pointing to other interesting bounds and signals if this feature of the data persists. Finally we comment on the robust Z-gamma signature that will always accompany the model we investigate

Influence of Procedural and Distributive Variables on Settlement Rates in Employment Discrimination Mediation, The

Mediators and scholars are interested in factors that contribute to a successful mediation. The settlement of the dispute is one measure of success. If one could identify certain key process or outcome variables that caused more disputes to be settled in mediation, a mediator could use this information to maximize settlement potential. We seek to add to this search for the holy grail of mediation settlement.\u27 Using an extensive database from the evaluation of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) we attempt to determine whether certain procedural and distributive factors are significant predictors of case resolution. We also examine whether other factors, such as whether a party was represented at the mediation, are correlated with resolution of the dispute

Sexual Harassment in the Workplace: How Arbitrators Decide

For thirty years courts and labor arbitrators have grappled with what constitutes sexual harassment and how to remedy such behavior. The Federal judiciary has developed case law on sexual harassment under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. However, arbitrators addressing this issue under collective bargaining agreements have often treated similar fact patterns differently than jurists. In contrast, labor arbitrators decide culpability first, and then consider the appropriate remedy. In reconciling these separate paths for establishing standards of workplace conduct, the authors will provide a model that explains how arbitrators decide sexual harassment cases and how this model dovetails with the case law developed by the Supreme Court since 1986. This analysis is intended to be useful to advocates in sexual harassment cases brought under a collective bargaining agreement, as well as to arbitrators and academicians. Guidance is provided for a variety of considerations such as selection of an arbitrator, framing the issue, effective use of requests for information, and much more

A Population-Based Surveillance Study of Shared Genotypes of Escherichia coli Isolates from Retail Meat and Suspected Cases of Urinary Tract Infections.

There is increasing evidence that retail food may serve as a source of Escherichia coli that causes community-acquired urinary tract infections, but the impact of this source in a community is not known. We conducted a prospective, population-based study in one community to examine the frequency of recovery of uropathogenic E. coli genotypes from retail meat samples. We analyzed E. coli isolates from consecutively collected urine samples of patients suspected to have urinary tract infections (UTIs) at a university-affiliated health service and retail meat samples from the same geographic region. We genotyped all E. coli isolates by multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and tested them for antimicrobial susceptibility. From 2016 to 2017, we cultured 233 E. coli isolates from 230 (21%) of 1,087 urine samples and 177 E. coli isolates from 120 (28%) of 427 retail meat samples. Urine samples contained 61 sequence types (STs), and meat samples had 95 STs; 12 STs (ST10, ST38, ST69, ST80, ST88, ST101, ST117, ST131, ST569, ST906, ST1844, and ST2562) were common to both. Thirty-five (81%) of 43 meat isolates among the 12 STs were from poultry. Among 94 isolates in the 12 STs, 26 (60%) of 43 retail meat isolates and 15 (29%) of 51 human isolates were pan-susceptible (P < 0.005). We found that 21% of E. coli isolates from suspected cases of UTIs belonged to STs found in poultry. Poultry may serve as a possible reservoir of uropathogenic E. coli (UPEC). Additional studies are needed to demonstrate transmission pathways of these UPEC genotypes and their food sources.IMPORTANCE Community-acquired urinary tract infection caused by Escherichia coli is one of the most common infectious diseases in the United States, affecting approximately seven million women and costing approximately 11.6 billion dollars annually. In addition, antibiotic resistance among E. coli bacteria causing urinary tract infection continues to increase, which greatly complicates treatment. Identifying sources of uropathogenic E. coli and implementing prevention measures are essential. However, the reservoirs of uropathogenic E. coli have not been well defined. This study demonstrated that poultry sold in retail stores may serve as one possible source of uropathogenic E. coli This finding adds to a growing body of evidence that suggests that urinary tract infection may be a food-borne disease. More research in this area can lead to the development of preventive strategies to control this common and costly infectious disease

Leadership, human resource management and the content of the psychological contract

This paper argues that, in combination, management leadership styles (transactional versus relational) and human resource management practices (flexibility versus commitment) play an important role in formulating the orientation and content of the psychological contract. The paper presents a theoretical framework of how this occurs, drawing upon and integrating prior research to develop a typology of psychological contract obligations based on a two-by-two matrix, with leadership style and HRM systems on opposing axes. The resultant obligations are termed as partnership, paternalistic, market-based and dynamic. Implications are discussed from the viewpoint of both individuals and organizations. Crucially, the paper posits that a failure to match leadership styles and human resource (HR) practices may lead to mismatched expectations between employees and employers. This may have negative consequences for an organization’s performance as, under the psychological contract, a breach of perceived obligations to employees by employers can have consequences for employee attitudes and behaviors

Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis of Seed-Blanket Unit Duplex Fuel Assemblies with VIPRE-01

One of the greatest challenges facing the nuclear power industry is the final disposition of nuclear waste. To meet the needs of the nuclear power industry, a new fuel assembly design, called DUPLEX, has been developed which provides higher fuel burnups, burns transuranic waste while reducing minor actinides, reduces the long term radiotoxicity of spent nuclear fuel, and was developed for use in current light water reactors. The DUPLEX design considered in this thesis is based on a seed and blanket unit (SBU) configuration, where the seed region contains standard UO2 fuel, and the blanket region contains an inert matrix (Pu,Np,Am)O2-MgO-ZrO2 fuel. The research efforts of this thesis are first to consider the higher burnup effects on DUPLEX assembly thermal-hydraulic performance and thermal safety margin over the assembly’s expected operational lifetime. In order to accomplish this, an existing burnup-dependent thermal-hydraulic methodology for conventional homogeneous fuel assemblies has been updated to meet the modeling needs specific to SBU-type assemblies. The developed framework dramatically expands the capabilities of the latest thermal-hydraulic evaluation framework such that the most promising and unique DUPLEX fuel design can be evaluated. As part of this updated methodology, the posed DUPLEX design is evaluated with respect to the minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio, peak fuel temperatures for both regions, and the peak cladding temperatures, under ANS Condition I, II, and III transient events with the thermal-hydraulic code VIPRE-01. Due to difficulty in the fabrication and handling of minor actinide dioxides, documented thermal conductivity values for the considered IMF design are unavailable. In order to develop a representative thermal conductivity model for use in VIPRE-01, an extensive literature survey on the thermal conductivity of (Pu,Np,Am)O2-MgO-ZrO2 component materials and a comprehensive review of combinatory models was performed. Using the updated methodology, VIPRE-01 is used to perform steady-state and transient thermal hydraulic analyses for the DUPLEX fuel assembly. During loss-of-flow accident scenarios, the DUPLEX design is shown to meet imposed safety criteria. However, using the most conservative thermal conductivity modeling approach for (Pu,Np,Am)O2-MgO-ZrO2, the blanket region fuel temperatures remain only slightly below the design limit