Trajectory Analysis of Serum Biomarker Concentrations Facilitates Outcome Prediction after Pediatric Traumatic and Hypoxemic Brain Injury

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) are leading causes of morbidity and mortality in children. Several studies over the past several years have evaluated the use of serum biomarkers to predict outcome after pediatric brain injury. These studies have all used simple point estimates such as initial and peak biomarker concentrations to predict outcome. However, this approach does not recognize patterns of change over time. Trajectory analysis is a type of analysis which can capture variance in biomarker concentrations over time and has been used with success in the social sciences. We used trajectory analysis to evaluate the ability of the serum concentrations of 3 brain-specific biomarkers – S100B, neuron-specific enolase (NSE) and myelin basic protein (MBP) – to predict poor outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale scores 3–5) after pediatric TBI and HIE. Clinical and biomarker data from 100 children with TBI or HIE were evaluated. For each biomarker, we validated 2-, 3- and 4-group models for outcome prediction, using sensitivity and specificity. For S100B, the 3-group model predicted poor outcome with a sensitivity of 59% and specificity of 100%. For NSE, the 3-group model predicted poor outcome with a sensitivity of 48% and specificity of 98%. For MBP, the 3-group model predicted poor outcome with a sensitivity of 73% and specificity of 61%. Thus, when the models predicted a poor outcome, there was a very high probability of a poor outcome. In contrast, 17% of subjects with a poor outcome were predicted to have a good outcome by all 3 biomarker trajectories. These data suggest that trajectory analysis of biomarker data may provide a useful approach for predicting outcome after pediatric brain injury

Body-composition changes in the Comprehensive Assessment of Long-term Effects of Reducing Intake of Energy (CALERIE)-2 study: A 2-y randomized controlled trial of calorie restriction in nonobese humans

Background: Calorie restriction (CR) retards aging and increases longevity in many animal models. However, it is unclear whether CR can be implemented in humans without adverse effects on body composition.Objective: We evaluated the effect of a 2-y CR regimen on body composition including the influence of sex and body mass index (BMI; in kg/m2) among participants enrolled in CALERIE-2 (Comprehensive Assessment of Long-term Effects of Reducing Intake of Energy), a multicenter, randomized controlled trial.Design: Participants were 218 nonobese (BMI: 21.9-28.0) adults aged 21-51 y who were randomly assigned to 25% CR (CR, n = 143) or ad libitum control (AL, n = 75) in a 2:1 ratio. Measures at baseline and 12 and 24 mo included body weight, waist circumference, fat mass (FM), fat-free mass (FFM), and appendicular mass by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry; activity-related energy expenditure (AREE) by doubly labeled water; and dietary protein intake by self-report. Values are expressed as means ± SDs.Results: The CR group achieved 11.9% ± 0.7% CR over 2-y and had significant decreases in weight (-7.6 ± 0.3 compared with 0.4 ± 0.5 kg), waist circumference (-6.2 ± 0.4 compared with 0.9 ± 0.5 cm), FM (-5.4 ± 0.3 compared with 0.5 ± 0.4 kg), and FFM (-2.0 ± 0.2 compared with -0.0 ± 0.2 kg) at 24 mo relative to the AL group (all between-group P < 0.001). Moreover, FFM as a percentage of body weight at 24 mo was higher, and percentage of FM was lower in the CR group than in the AL. AREE, but not protein intake, predicted preservation of FFM during CR (P < 0.01). Men in the CR group lost significantly more trunk fat (P = 0.03) and FFM expressed as a percentage of weight loss (P < 0.001) than women in the CR group.Conclusions: Two years of CR had broadly favorable effects on both whole-body and regional adiposity that could facilitate health span in humans. The decrements in FFM were commensurate with the reduced body mass; although men in the CR group lost more FFM than the women did, the percentage of FFM in the men in the CR group was higher than at baseline. CALERIE was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00427193