Delays in Leniency Application: Is There Really a Race to the Enforcer's Door?

This paper studies cartels’ strategic behavior in delaying leniency applications, a take-up decision that has been ignored in the previous literature. Using European Commission decisions issued over a 16-year span, we show, contrary to common beliefs and the existing literature, that conspirators often apply for leniency long after a cartel collapses. We estimate hazard and probit models to study the determinants of leniency-application delays. Statistical tests find that delays are symmetrically affected by antitrust policies and macroeconomic fluctuations. Our results shed light on the design of enforcement programs against cartels and other forms of conspiracy

Hierarchical dynamic time-to-event models for post-treatment preventive care data on breast cancer survivors

This paper considers modelling data arising in post-treatment preventive care settings, where cancer patients who have undergone disease-directed treatment discontinue seeking preventive care services. Clinicians and public health researchers are interested in explaining such behavioural patterns by modelling the time-to-receiving care while accounting for several patient and treatment attributes. A key feature of such data is that a noticeable number of patients would never return for screening, a concept subtly different from censoring, where an individual does not return for screening in the given time frame of the study. Models distinguishing between these two concepts are known as cure rate models and are often preferred for data where a significant part of the population never experienced the endpoint. Building upon recent work on hierarchical cure model framework we propose modelling a sequence of latent events with a piecewise exponential distribution that remedies oversmoothing encountered in existing models with different latent distributions. We investigate simultaneous regression on the cure fraction and the latent event distribution and derive a flexible class of semiparametric cure rate models. © 2009 SAGE Publications