Modelling and Forecasting the Volatility of Thin Emerging Stock Markets: the Case of Bulgaria

The result of this research shows that the SOFIX index has basic characteristics that are observed in most of the emerging stock markets, namely: high risk, significant autocorrelation, non-normality and volatility clustering. Three models have been applied to assess and estimate the Bulgarian stock market risk: RiskMetrics, EWMA with t-distributed innovations and EWMA with GED distributed innovations. The results revealed that the EWMA with t-distributed innovations and the EWMA with GED distributed innovations evaluate the risk of the Bulgarian stock market adequately.Przeprowadzone analizy wskazują, że indeks giełdowy SOFIX charakteryzuje się typowymi cechami: wysokim ryzykiem autokorelacji i nienormalnym rozczłonkowaniem. W celu oszacowania i oceny ryzyka giełdy w Bułgarii wykorzystano trzy modele: RiskMetrics, EWMA oraz zmodyfikowany model EWMA. Z analiz wynika, że dwa ostatnie modele dosyć dokładnie szacują ryzyko na bułgarskiej giełdzie papierów wartościowyc

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE PORTFOLIO SCOPE FOR IMPROVING THE RESULTS OF THE ACTIVE PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT– FOLLOWING THE EXAMPLE OF THE EMERGING STOCK MARKETS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

Active portfolio management is widely used in investment practice with the goal of securing better performance results from the investment process. Active portfolio management has gathered significant attention from both academics and practioners. Our goal is to investigate the class between two competing ideas. On one hand increasing the Breadth of the portfolio we should have bigger diversification effect. On the other hand increasing the number of assets (Breadth) should lead to smaller forecasting ability and therefore lower IC . Presented results show that our first hypothesis is confirmed – increasing the number of assets in the portfolio magnifies the effect of the active management. Additionally we show that when managers increase their Breadth, they increase not only IR, but also manage to decrease IC which shows better stability of our forecasting skill through time

MODELLING AND FORECASTING THE VOLATILITY OF THIN EMERGING STOCK MARKETS: THE CASE OF BULGARIA

Abstrac

OFFSHORE ZONES – PLACES FOR IMPLEMENTING CRIMINAL INITIATIVES OR ECONOMICALLY JUSTIFIED INVESTMENTS

Между изследователи, политици и финансисти се води разгорещен спор относно ролята на офшорните зони в съвременната глобална икономика. Коя е причината инвеститорите да насочват спестяванията си към офшорните зони – дали те са мотивирани от икономически причини или го правят просто за да реализират някакви престъпни намерения, използвайки статута на офшорност? Според Zhixiang Sun, инвеститорите ще пренасочват спестяванията си към офшорните зони дотогава, докато съотношението между възвръщаемостта на родината, спрямо възвръщаемостта в офшорната зона е по-голямо от съотношението между единица минус данъчната ставка в родината и единица минус данъчната ставка в офшорната зона. В това изследване ние изчисляваме това съотношение за американски инвеститор спрямо възможно трансфериране към 9 карибски офшорни зони. За всички случаи получаваме, че съществуват сериозни икономически основания за трансфер към зоните. Подобни са резултатите за български инвеститор, като само за Панама не доказваме наличие на икономическа обоснованост. An intensive dispute about the role of the offshore zones in modern global economy is taking place among researchers, politicians and financial specialists. What are the reasons for investors to transfer their savings to such offshore zones – are they motivated by economic reasons or are they just realizing their criminal intentions using the offshore status? According to Zhixiang Sun investors will transfer their savings to offshore zones until the ratio between return in the home country towards return in the offshore zone is higher than the ratio between unity minus the tax rate in the home country and unity minus the tax rate in the offshore zone. In our research we calculate these ratios for a US investor towards a possible transfer to 9 Caribbean offshore zones. For all cases we find that there are strong economic reasons for investors to transfer their savings to offshore zones. The same conclusions refer to Bulgarian investors, too. It is only for Panama that we did not find economic reasons

Modelling and Forecasting the Volatility of Thin Emerging Stock Markets: the Case of Bulgaria

Modern Portfolio Theory associates the stock market risk with the volatility of return. Volatility is measured by the variance of the returns’ distribution. However, the investment community does not accept this measure, since it weights equally deviations of the average returns, whereas most investors determine the risk on the basis of small or negative returns. In the last few years the measure Value at Risk (VaR) has been established and adopted widely by practitioners. The issue of modelling and forecasting thin emerging stock markets’ risk is still open. The subject of this present paper is the risk of the Bulgarian stock market. The aim of this research is to give the investment community a model for assessing and forecasting the Bulgarian stock market risk. The result of this research shows that the SOFIX index has basic characteristics that are observed in most of the emerging stock markets, namely: high risk, significant autocorrelation, non-normality and volatility clustering. Three models have been applied to assess and estimate the Bulgarian stock market risk: RiskMetrics, EWMA with t-distributed innovations and EWMA with GED distributed innovations. The results revealed that the EWMA with t-distributed innovations and the EWMA with GED distributed innovations evaluate the risk of the Bulgarian stock market adequately

Modelling and Forecasting the Volatility of Thin Emerging Stock Markets: the Case of Bulgaria

Modern Portfolio Theory associates the stock market risk with the volatility of return. Volatility is measured by the variance of the returns’ distribution. However, the investment community does not accept this measure, since it weights equally deviations of the average returns, whereas most investors determine the risk on the basis of small or negative returns. In the last few years the measure Value at Risk (VaR) has been established and adopted widely by practitioners. The issue of modelling and forecasting thin emerging stock markets’ risk is still open. The subject of this present paper is the risk of the Bulgarian stock market. The aim of this research is to give the investment community a model for assessing and forecasting the Bulgarian stock market risk. The result of this research shows that the SOFIX index has basic characteristics that are observed in most of the emerging stock markets, namely: high risk, significant autocorrelation, non-normality and volatility clustering. Three models have been applied to assess and estimate the Bulgarian stock market risk: RiskMetrics, EWMA with t-distributed innovations and EWMA with GED distributed innovations. The results revealed that the EWMA with t-distributed innovations and the EWMA with GED distributed innovations evaluate the risk of the Bulgarian stock market adequately

STUDY ON THE APPLICABILITY OF INVESTMENT AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT MODELS IN EMERGING MARKETS

Разработката има за цел да тества приложимостта на три основни модела за инвестиране и портфейлиране в условията на нововъзникналите пазари в Източна Европа – моделът на EVA, моделът RI и моделът ETF α+. Тезата ни е, че моделите, утвърдени в развитите икономики, са приложими и в условията на нововъзникналите пазари, но следва да бъдат моделирани, за да отразят спецификата на тези пазари. Задачата ни е да изградим модифицирани модели, приложими в условията на източноевропейските нововъзникнали пазари. На първо място e тестван моделът за икономически добавената стойност (EVA), но редица трудности бяха срещнати при прилагането му в Източна Европа главно заради някои различия в счетоводните стандарти. В отговор на това бе разработен по-опростеният модел RI, при който с две негови модификации е доказана неговата приложимост на нашите пазари. На база на този резултат са направени ключови промени в EVA. Доказано е, че и двата показателя – EVA и RI могат да служат като критерий за реализиране на инвестиционни и портфейлни политики. В заключителния етап на проекта успешно е тествана и възможността за създаване на алфа доходност при дупликиране на индекса WIG20, като се постига по-висока доход- ност от пазарната. The study aims to test the applicability of three basic investment and portfolio management models in emerging markets in Central and Eastern Europe – the EVA model, RI model and ETF α+ model. Our thesis statement is that the models established in developed economies are applicable to emerging markets but should be modelled according to the specifics of these markets. Our task was to create modified models that are applicable in the East-European emerging markets. First we tested the economic value-added model (EVA), but we met a number of difficulties in applying it in Eastern Europe, mainly due to some differences in the accounting standards. Therefore, we developed the much simpler RI model, in which with only two modifications we were able to prove its applicability in our markets. Based on this result we then made key changes in the EVA model and as a result we found that both indicators – EVA and RI – can be used as criteria for implementing investment and portfolio management policies. In the final stage of the project we successfully tested the possibility of generating alpha returns in duplicating the WIG220 index, achieving a higher return than the market return