Approaches to Selecting "Time Zero" in External Control Arms with Multiple Potential Entry Points: A Simulation Study of 8 Approaches

Background: When including data from an external control arm to estimate comparative effectiveness, there is a methodological choice of when to set “time zero,” the point at which a patient would be eligible/enrolled in a contemporary study. Where patients receive multiple lines of eligible therapy and thus alternative points could be selected, this issue is complex. Methods: A simulation study was conducted in which patients received multiple prior lines of therapy before entering either cohort. The results from the control and intervention data sets are compared using 8 methods for selecting time zero. The base-case comparison was set up to be biased against the intervention (which is generally received later), with methods compared in their ability to estimate the true intervention effectiveness. We further investigate the impact of key study attributes (such as sample size) and degree of overlap in time-varying covariates (such as prior lines of therapy) on study results. Results: Of the 8 methods, 5 (all lines, random line, systematically selecting groups based on mean absolute error, root mean square error, or propensity scores) showed good performance in accounting for differences between the line at which patients were included. The first eligible line can be statistically inefficient in some situations. All lines (with censoring) cannot be used for survival outcomes. The last eligible line cannot be recommended. Conclusions: Multiple methods are available for selecting the most appropriate time zero from an external control arm. Based on the simulation, we demonstrate that some methods frequently perform poorly, with several viable methods remaining. In selecting between the viable methods, analysts should consider the context of their analysis and justify the approach selected. There are multiple methods available from which an analyst may select “time zero” in an external control cohort. This simulation study demonstrates that some methods perform poorly but most are viable options, depending on context and the degree of overlap in time zero across cohorts. Careful thought and clear justification should be used when selecting the strategy for a study

Comparative effectiveness of ZUMA-5 (axi-cel) vs SCHOLAR-5 external control in relapsed/refractory follicular lymphoma

Follicular lymphomaLimfoma fol·licularLinfoma folicularIn the pivotal ZUMA-5 trial, axicabtagene ciloleucel (axi-cel; an autologous anti-CD19 chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy) demonstrated high rates of durable response in relapsed/refractory (r/r) follicular lymphoma (FL) patients. Here, outcomes from ZUMA-5 are compared with the international SCHOLAR-5 cohort, which applied key ZUMA-5 trial eligibility criteria simulating randomized controlled trial conditions. SCHOLAR-5 data were extracted from institutions in 5 countries, and from 1 historical clinical trial, for r/r FL patients who initiated a third or higher line of therapy after July 2014. Patient characteristics were balanced through propensity scoring on prespecified prognostic factors using standardized mortality ratio (SMR) weighting. Time-to-event outcomes were evaluated using weighted Kaplan-Meier analysis. Overall response rate (ORR) and complete response (CR) rate were compared using weighted odds ratios. The 143 ScHOLAR-5 patients reduced to an effective sample of 85 patients after SMR weighting vs 86 patients in ZUMA-5. Median follow-up time was 25.4 and 23.3 months for SCHOLAR-5 and ZUMA-5. Median overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in SCHOLAR-5 were 59.8 months and 12.7 months and not reached in ZUMA-5. Hazard ratios for OS and PFS were 0.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.21-0.83) and 0.30 (95% CI, 0.18-0.49). The ORR and CR rate were 49.9% and 29.9% in SCHOLAR-5 and 94.2% and 79.1% in ZUMA-5, for odds ratios of 16.2 (95% CI, 5.6-46.9) and 8.9 (95% CI, 4.3-18.3). Compared with available therapies, axi-cel demonstrated an improvement in meaningful clinical endpoints, suggesting axi-cel addresses an important unmet need for r/r FL patients. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT03105336.Was provided by Kite Pharma, a Gilead company, for this study

A 24-month updated analysis of the comparative effectiveness of ZUMA-5 (axi-cel) vs. SCHOLAR-5 external control in relapsed/refractory follicular lymphoma

Follicular lymphoma; Axicabtagene ciloleucel; Comparative effectivenessLimfoma fol·licular; Axicabtagene ciloleucel; Eficàcia comparativaLinfoma folicular; Axicabtagene ciloleucel; Eficacia comparativaBackground In the ZUMA-5 trial (Clinical trials identification: NCT03105336), axicabtagene ciloleucel (axi-cel; a chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy) demonstrated high rates of durable response in relapsed/refractory (r/r) follicular lymphoma (FL) patients and clear superiority relative to the SCHOLAR-5 external control cohort. We update this comparison using the ZUMA-5 24-month data. Research design and methods The SCHOLAR-5 cohort is comprised of r/r FL patients who initiated ≥3rd line of therapy after July 2014 and meeting ZUMA-5 eligibility criteria. Groups were balanced for patient characteristics through propensity scoring on prespecified prognostic factors using standardized mortality ratio (SMR) weighting. The overall response rate was compared using a weighted logistic regression. Time-to-event outcomes were evaluated using a Cox regression. Results For SCHOLAR-5, the sum of weights for the 143 patients was 85 after SMR weighting, versus 86 patients in ZUMA-5. The median follow-up was 29.4 months and 25.4 months for ZUMA-5 and SCHOLAR-5, respectively. The hazard ratios for overall survival and progression-free survival were 0.52 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.28–0.95) and 0.28 (95% CI: 0.17–0.45), favoring axi-cel. Conclusion This updated analysis, using a longer minimum follow-up than a previously published analysis, shows that the improved efficacy of axi-cel, relative to available therapies, in r/r FL is durable.This manuscript was funded by Kite, a Gilead Company

Economic evaluation of mobile phone text message interventions to improve adherence to HIV therapy in Kenya

A surge in mobile phone availability has fueled low cost short messaging service (SMS) adherence interventions. Multiple systematic reviews have concluded that some SMS-based interventions are effective at improving antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence, and they are hypothesized to improve retention in care. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of SMS-based adherence interventions and explore the added value of retention benefits

Clinical outcomes in patients relapsed/refractory after ≥2 prior lines of therapy for follicular lymphoma: A systematic literature review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Patients with follicular lymphoma (FL) can have high response rates to early lines of treatment. However, among FL patients relapsed/refractory (r/r) after ≥2 prior lines of therapy (LOT), remission tends to be shorter and there is limited treatment guidance. This study sought to evaluate the clinical outcomes for r/r FL after ≥2 prior LOT identified through systematic literature review. METHODS: Eligible studies included comparative or non-comparative interventional or observational studies of systemic therapies among adults with FL r/r after ≥2 prior LOT published prior to 31st May 2021. Prior LOT must have included an anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody and an alkylating agent, in combination or separately. Overall response rate (ORR) and complete response (CR) were estimated using inverse-variance weighting with Freeman-Tukey double-arcsine transformations. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) estimated by reconstructing digitized curves using the Guyot algorithm, and survival analyses were conducted, stratified by ≥2 prior LOT and ≥ 3 prior LOT groups (as defined in the source material). Restricting the analyses to the observational cohorts was investigated as a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: The analysis-set included 20 studies published between 2014 and 2021. Studies were primarily US and/or European based, with the few exceptions using treatments approved in US/Europe. The estimated ORR was 58.47% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 51.13-65.62) and proportion of patients with CR was 19.63% (95% CI: 15.02-24.68). The median OS among those ≥2 prior LOT was 56.57 months (95% CI: 47.8-68.78) and median PFS was 9.78 months (95% CI: 9.01-10.63). The 24-month OS decreased from 66.50% in the ≥2 prior LOT group to 59.51% in the ≥3 prior LOT group, with a similar trend in PFS at 24-month (28.42% vs 24.13%). CONCLUSIONS: This study found that few r/r FL patients with ≥2 prior LOT achieve CR, and despite some benefit, approximately 1/3 of treated patients die within 24 months. The shorter median PFS with increasing prior LOT suggest treatment durability is suboptimal in later LOT. These findings indicate that patients are underserved by treatments currently available in the US and Europe

Treatment patterns and outcomes in relapsed/refractory follicular lymphoma: results from the international SCHOLAR-5 study

The SCHOLAR-5 study examines treatment patterns and outcomes of real-world follicular lymphoma (FL) patients on 3rd line of treatment (LoT) or higher, for whom existing data are limited. SCHOLAR-5 is a retrospective cohort study using data from adults (≥ 18 years) with grade 1-3a FL, initiating ≥3rd LoT after June 2014 at major lymphoma centers in the United States (US) and Europe. Objective response rate (ORR), complete response (CR), progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed by LoT. Time-to-event outcomes were assessed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Of 128 patients, 87 initiated 3rd LoT, 63 initiated 4th LoT, and 47 initiated 5th LoT. At 1st eligible LoT, 31% progressed within 24-months of 1st LoT anti-CD20 combination therapy, 28% had prior autologous stem-cell transplantation, and 31% were refractory to the previous LoT. The most common regimen in each LoT was chemoimmunotherapy; however, experimental drugs were increasingly used at later LoTs. In the US, anti-CD20 monotherapy was more common at ≥3rd LoT compared to Europe, where stem cell transplants were more common. ORR at 3rd LoT was 68% (CR 44%), but decreased after each LoT to 37% (CR 22%) in ≥5 LoT. Median OS and PFS at 3rd LoT were 68 and 11 months, respectively, and reduced to 43 and 4 months at ≥5 LoT. Treatments were heterogenous at each LoT in both the US and Europe. Few FL patients achieved complete response in later LoT, and duration of response and survival diminished with each subsequent line

ICAR: endoscopic skull‐base surgery

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Evaluating Alternative Designs of a Multilevel HIV Intervention in Maharashtra, India: The Impact of Stakeholder Constraints

Background. Multilevel interventions combine individual component interventions, and their design can be informed by decision analysis. Our objective was to identify the optimal combination of interventions for alcohol-using HIV+ individuals on antiretroviral drug therapy in Maharashtra, India, explicitly considering stakeholder constraints. Methods. Using an HIV simulation, we evaluated the expected net monetary benefit (ENMB), the probability of lying on the efficiency frontier (PEF), and annual program costs of 5,836 unique combinations of 15 single-focused HIV risk-reduction interventions. We evaluated scenarios of 1) no constraints (i.e., maximize expected value), 2) short-term budget constraints (limits on annual programmatic costs of US$200,000 and$400,000), and 3) a constraint stemming from risk aversion (requiring that the strategy has >50% PEF). Results. With no constraints, the combination including long individual alcohol counseling, text-message adherence support, long group counseling for sex-risk , and long individual counseling for sex-risk (annual cost = $428,886; PEF ∼27$400,000, the combination including long individual alcohol counseling, text-message adherence support, brief group counseling for sex-risk , and long individual counseling for sex-risk (annual cost = $374,745; PEF ∼4$200,000, the combination including long individual alcohol counseling, text-message adherence support , and brief group counseling for sex-risk (annual cost = $187,335; PEF ∼54%) maximized ENMB. With the risk aversion constraint, the same configuration ( long individual alcohol counseling, text-message support , and brief group counseling for sex-risk ) maximized health benefit. Conclusion. Evaluating the costs, risks, and projected benefits of alternatives supports informed decision making prior to initiating study; however, stakeholder constraints should be explicitly included and discussed when using decision analyses to guide study design

The validity of the SF-12 and SF-6D instruments in people living with HIV/AIDS in Kenya

Background: Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and health state utility value (HSUV) measurements are vital components of healthcare clinical and economic evaluations. Accurate measurement of HSUV and HRQoL require validated instruments. The 12-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12) is one of few instruments that can evaluate both HRQoL and HSUV, but its validity has not been assessed in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) in east Africa, where the burden of HIV is high. Methods: This cross-sectional study used baseline data from a randomized trial involving PLWHA in Kenya. Data included responses from a translated and adapted SF-12 survey as well as key demographic and clinical data. Construct validity of the survey was examined by testing the SF-12’s ability to distinguish between groups known in advance to have differences in their health based on their disease severity. We classified disease severity based on established definitions from the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) and WHO, as well as a previously studied viral load threshold. T-tests and ANOVA were used to test for differences in HRQoL and HSUV scores. Area under the receive operator curve (AUC) was used to test the discriminative ability of the HRQoL and HSUV instruments. Results: Differences in physical component scores met the minimum clinically important difference among participants with more advanced HIV when defined by CD4 count (4.3 units) and WHO criteria (compared to stage 1, stages 2, 3 and 4 were 2.0, 7.2 and 9.8 units lower respectively). Mental score differences met the minimum clinically important difference between WHO stage 1 and stage 4 patients (4.4). Differences in the HSUV were statistically lower in more advanced HIV by all three definitions of severity. The AUC showed poor to weak discriminatory ability in most analyses, but had fair discriminatory ability between WHO clinical stage 1 and clinical stage 4 individuals (AUC = 0.71). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that the Kiswahili translated and adapted version of the SF-12 could be used as an assessment tool for physical health, mental health and HSUV for Kiswahili-speaking PLHWA. Trial registration Clinical trials.gov identifier: NCT00830622 . Registered 26 January 2009.Medicine, Faculty ofPharmaceutical Sciences, Faculty ofOther UBCNon UBCMedicine, Department ofReviewedFacult

Betting on the fastest horse: Using computer simulation to design a combination HIV intervention for future projects in Maharashtra, India

<div><p>Objective</p><p>To inform the design of a combination intervention strategy targeting HIV-infected unhealthy alcohol users in Maharashtra, India, that could be tested in future randomized control trials.</p><p>Methods</p><p>Using probabilistic compartmental simulation modeling we compared intervention strategies targeting HIV-infected unhealthy alcohol users on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Maharashtra, India. We tested interventions targeting four behaviors (unhealthy alcohol consumption, risky sexual behavior, depression and antiretroviral adherence), in three formats (individual, group based, community) and two durations (shorter versus longer). A total of 5,386 possible intervention combinations were tested across the population for a 20-year time horizon and intervention bundles were narrowed down based on incremental cost-effectiveness analysis using a two-step probabilistic uncertainty analysis approach.</p><p>Results</p><p>Taking into account uncertainty in transmission variables and intervention cost and effectiveness values, we were able to reduce the number of possible intervention combinations to be used in a randomized control trial from over 5,000 to less than 5. The most robust intervention bundle identified was a combination of three interventions: long individual alcohol counseling; weekly Short Message Service (SMS) adherence counseling; and brief sex risk group counseling.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>In addition to guiding policy design, simulation modeling of HIV transmission can be used as a preparatory step to trial design, offering a method for intervention pre-selection at a reduced cost.</p></div