An Analysis of the Mt. Meron Seismic Array

We have performed a quick analysis of the Mt. Meron seismic array to monitor regional seismic events in the Middle East. The Meron array is the only current array in the Levant and Arabian Peninsula and, as such, might be useful in contributing to event location, identification, and other analysis. Here, we provide a brief description of the array and a review of the travel time and array analysis done to assess its performance

Final report for "Development of generalized mapping tools to improve implementation of data driven computer simulations" (LDRD 04-ERD-083)

Probabilistic inverse techniques, like the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, have had recent success in combining disparate data types into a consistent model. The Stochastic Engine (SE) initiative was a technique that developed this method and applied it to a number of earth science and national security applications. For instance, while the method was originally developed to solve ground flow problems (Aines et al.), it has also been applied to atmospheric modeling and engineering problems. The investigators of this proposal have applied the SE to regional-scale lithospheric earth models, which have applications to hazard analysis and nuclear explosion monitoring. While this broad applicability is appealing, tailoring the method for each application is inefficient and time-consuming. Stochastic methods invert data by probabilistically sampling the model space and comparing observations predicted by the proposed model to observed data and preferentially accepting models that produce a good fit, generating a posterior distribution. In other words, the method ''inverts'' for a model or, more precisely, a distribution of models, by a series of forward calculations. While powerful, the technique is often challenging to implement, as the mapping from model space to data needs to be ''customized'' for each data type. For example, all proposed models might need to be transformed through sensitivity kernels from 3-D models to 2-D models in one step in order to compute path integrals, and transformed in a completely different manner in the next step. We seek technical enhancements that widen the applicability of the Stochastic Engine by generalizing some aspects of the method (i.e. model-to-data transformation types, configuration, model representation). Initially, we wish to generalize the transformations that are necessary to match the observations to proposed models. These transformations are sufficiently general not to pertain to any single application. This is a new and innovative approach to the problem, providing a framework to increase the efficiency of its implementation. The overall goal is to reduce response time and make the approach as ''plug-and-play'' as possible, and will result in the rapid accumulation of new data types for a host of both earth science and non-earth science problems

A Model-Based Signal Processing Approach to Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

This report describes research performed under Laboratory Research and Development Project 05-ERD-019, entitled ''A New Capability for Regional High-Frequency Seismic Wave Simulation in Realistic Three-Dimensional Earth Models to Improve Nuclear Explosion Monitoring''. A more appropriate title for this project is ''A Model-Based Signal Processing Approach to Nuclear Explosion Monitoring''. This project supported research for a radically new approach to nuclear explosion monitoring as well as allowed the development new capabilities in computational seismology that can contribute to NNSA/NA-22 Programs

Seismic Source and Path Calibration in the Korean Peninsula, Yellow Sea

Two significant seismic events were analyzed using the crustal velocity model developed under this contract. The M{sub W} = 4.55 Korea earthquake of January 20, 2007 occurred in the Republic of Korea on land and within the dense digital seismic network. Using P-wave arrivals from 60 broadband, short-period and acceleration stations, the event occurred at 37.68N, 128.58E at a depth of 7.5 km at 20070120115653.8. Source inversion was performed using the accelerometer recordings in the 0.05-0.20 Hz band the broadband data in the 0.02-0.10 Hz band, with identical focal mechanisms and source depths of 9 and 11 km, respectively. This is the largest event on land in South Korea since the M{sub W} 4.7 event on December 13, 1996. Forward modeling of the waveforms at INCN and MDJ indicates the ability of the current model to match observations on the Korean Peninsula and the effect of significant pulse shape modification for paths that partially cross the Sea of Japan. The results of using the local network data provide a ground truth point for other studies analyzing seismic events on the peninsula. The isotropic seismic moment of the October 9, 2006 North Korea explosion was estimated from the Rayleigh-wave spectral amplitudes observed at MDJ and INCN. Very little Love wave signal was observed, indicating weak tectonic release. The explosion yield was investigated using the Denny and Johnson (1991) model relating yield to the observed isotropic moment as a function of depth of burial and material properties. Sensitivity analysis highlights the strong effect of the assumed velocity and density structure in the upper kilometer of the Earth and the assumed depth of burial on the estimated yield. The crustal velocity model developed under this contract provides strong constraints on the expected shear-wave velocities in the shallow parts of the crust. Issues to be investigated include the effect of wave propagation through the Eastern Sea (Sea of Japan) to stations in South Korea, and the effect of attenuation on isotropic moment estimates over longer paths, e.g., to the station BJT in Beijing

Preliminary Definition of Geophysical Regions in Western Eurasia

The authors present a regionalized crustal model of Western Eurasia, WEA. The model is constructed using results from published studies and maps of geological and geophysical parameters in this region, and was developed in conjunction with the updated regionalization of Middle East and North Africa by Walter et al.[2000]. As this is the first realization of the Eurasian modeling effort, they have limited themselves to only twelve broad regions. Particular attention has been given to identifying the boundaries for each region. The main use of this model will be to assist in monitoring the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Specifically, this model will help them to calibrate and predict the travel time and amplitudes of various regional seismic phases and to locate events accurately. The model based approach allows them to readily calibrate both the seismic and the aseismic parts of western Eurasia. Each region is specified by an one-dimensional model of compressional and shear velocities, densities and layer thicknesses. Further improvements to this model will involve, but not be limited to, increasing the spatial coverage toward the east and west of Eurasia, identify sub-regions based on their distinct physical properties and the use of new and improved body wave and surface wave datasets. In the future, they expect to use this model and its successors to be the baseline model for calibration techniques, e.g., kriging, to improve their capability to detect, locate and discriminate different seismic events in Eurasia