How analysts think: think-steps as a tool for structuring sensemaking in criminal intelligence analysis

Sensemaking has been described as a process involving information structuring. However, there are few detailed accounts of how this manifests in practice, particularly in relation to the creation and use of external representations such as data visualisations, and how such structuring aids sensemaking. To explore these questions in depth, we present an interview study of police crime analysts from which a model of their analysis process is developed. We describe the model focusing on the notion of 'think-steps', which for the analysts acted as a primary structuring concept. We describe how 'think-steps' propagate throughout the analysis process captured in the model. For the analysts, 'think-steps' are extensible templates that decompose a case into elements, provide a way of storing and visually structuring data, support generation of requests for information, focus research, simulate a case, and shape reporting. We reflect on the implications that our findings might have for design, including the possibility of a repertoire of evolving, sharable and reusable templates for sensemaking within a community of practice

How analysts think: navigating uncertainty – aspirations, considerations and strategies

While there has been considerable research in understanding the process of sense making in criminal intelligence analysis as well as the formulation of arguments in the domain of law, there remain gaps in our understanding of how to move seamlessly from the fluidity of the sense making activities to the rigour of argumentation construction. This matter is complicated further with high uncertainty which accompanies sense making and which propagates through to the rigour that accompanies argumentation. This paper attempts to understand how Criminal Intelligence Analysts navigate uncertainty from fluidity to rigour constructs and outlines some of the considerations and strategies deployed by the Criminal Intelligence Analyst to reach, or increase, certainty at a given point in time during the analysis process. This paper concludes by proposing preliminary suggestions with the aim to narrow the gaps in this journey from fluidity to rigour, at least, marginall

Supporting the externalisation of thinking in criminal intelligence analysis

At the end of the criminal intelligence analysis process there are relatively well established and understood approaches to explicit externalisation and representation of thought that include theories of argumentation, narrative and hybrid approaches that include both of these. However the focus of this paper is on the little understood area of how to support users in the process of arriving at such representations from an initial starting point where little is given. The work is based on theoretical considerations and some initial studies with end users. In focusing on process we discuss the requirements of fluidity and rigor and how to gain traction in investigations, the processes of thinking involved including abductive, deductive and inductive reasoning, how users may use thematic sorting in early stages of investigation and how tactile reasoning may be used to externalize and facilitate reasoning in a productive way. In the conclusion section we discuss the issues raised in this work and directions for future work

How can we design tactile interactive software for argument construction in criminal intelligence analysis?

Argumentation construction refers to the different ways in which people can formulate a well defined argument that can withstand scrutiny in a court of law. Different domains have enhanced the research on argumentation construction, but each enhancement relates either to ‘evidence’ or to the ‘relevance of evidence’, thus making these elements the corner stone elements of argumentation construction. By attempting to understand how Criminal Intelligence Analysts understand and manage these corner stone elements, as well as how these elements differ to the law domain counterparts, we aspire to formulate design guidelines for a software program that is tailored to how Criminal Intelligence Analysts think and argue during sense-making activities. This paper outlines the relevant literature and why the researchers consider ‘evidence’ and the ‘relevance of evidence’ as the corner stone elements of argumentation construction. The results section summarises the outcomes of two qualitative studies. The first study aims to understand how Criminal Intelligence Analysts perceive and manage uncertain information and how this eventually leads to the creation of evidence (as exhibits) for a court of law. The second study aims to understand how Criminal Intelligence Analysts know which information is relevant for the task at hand, especially when uncertainty is high. The results of the two studies still need to be combined and put into practise (as design guidelines) to test the effectiveness and validity of the results obtained in the two studies. This is listed as future work in the conclusion section

How analysts think: how do criminal intelligence analysts recognise and manage significant information?

The Criminal Intelligence Analyst's role is to create exhibits which are relevant, accurate and unbiased. Exhibits can be used as input to assist decision-making in intelligence-led policing. It may also be used as evidence in a court of law. The aim of this study was to determine how Criminal Intelligence Analysts recognise and manage significant information as a method to determine what is relevant for their attention and for the creation of exhibits. This in turn may provide guidance on how to design and incorporate loose and flexible argumentation schemas into sense-making software. The objective is to be informed on how to design software, which affords Criminal Intelligence Analysts with the ability to effortlessly determine the relevance of information, which subsequently could assist with the process of assessing and defending the quality of exhibits

Effect of Natriuretic Peptide-Guided Therapy on Hospitalization or Cardiovascular Mortality in High-Risk Patients With Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The natriuretic peptides are biochemical markers of heart failure (HF) severity and predictors of adverse outcomes. Smaller studies have evaluated adjusting HF therapy based on natriuretic peptide levels ( guided therapy ) with inconsistent results. Objective: To determine whether an amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)-guided treatment strategy improves clinical outcomes vs usual care in high-risk patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Design, Settings, and Participants: The Guiding Evidence Based Therapy Using Biomarker Intensified Treatment in Heart Failure (GUIDE-IT) study was a randomized multicenter clinical trial conducted between January 16, 2013, and September 20, 2016, at 45 clinical sites in the United States and Canada. This study planned to randomize 1100 patients with HFrEF (ejection fraction ≤40%), elevated natriuretic peptide levels within the prior 30 days, and a history of a prior HF event (HF hospitalization or equivalent) to either an NT-proBNP-guided strategy or usual care. Interventions: Patients were randomized to either an NT-proBNP-guided strategy or usual care. Patients randomized to the guided strategy (n = 446) had HF therapy titrated with the goal of achieving a target NT-proBNP of less than 1000 pg/mL. Patients randomized to usual care (n = 448) had HF care in accordance with published guidelines, with emphasis on titration of proven neurohormonal therapies for HF. Serial measurement of NT-proBNP testing was discouraged in the usual care group. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was the composite of time-to-first HF hospitalization or cardiovascular mortality. Prespecified secondary end points included all-cause mortality, total hospitalizations for HF, days alive and not hospitalized for cardiovascular reasons, the individual components on the primary end point, and adverse events. Results: The data and safety monitoring board recommended stopping the study for futility when 894 (median age, 63 years; 286 [32%] women) of the planned 1100 patients had been enrolled with follow-up for a median of 15 months. The primary end point occurred in 164 patients (37%) in the biomarker-guided group and 164 patients (37%) in the usual care group (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.98; 95% CI, 0.79-1.22; P = .88). Cardiovascular mortality was 12% (n = 53) in the biomarker-guided group and 13% (n = 57) in the usual care group (HR, 0.94; 95% CI; 0.65-1.37; P = .75). None of the secondary end points nor the decreases in the NT-proBNP levels achieved differed significantly between groups. Conclusions and Relevance: In high-risk patients with HFrEF, a strategy of NT-proBNP-guided therapy was not more effective than a usual care strategy in improving outcomes. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01685840

Correlation of fluvial sequences in the Mediterranean basin over the last 200 ka and their relationship to climate change

This paper presents a new correlation of Late and Middle Pleistocene fluvial sedimentary sequences in Greek, Libyan and Spanish river basins and evaluates river response to climate change over the Last Interglacial–Glacial Cycle. Over the past 200,000 years there have been at least 13 major alluviation episodes in the Mediterranean, although the amplitude, frequency and possibly, duration of these events varied significantly across the region. Parts of Oxygen Isotope Stage (OIS) 5 appears to have been periods of pronounced landscape change in many Mediterranean catchments with major river aggradation occurring atB109–111 ka (during OIS 5d) and most notably at B88 ka (OIS 5b/5a boundary). Other parts of OIS 5 appear to have been periods of relative fluvial inactivity. OIS 2 and 3 were both characterised by an apparent increase in the number of alluviation events, and this record of river behaviour parallels many other palaeoenvironmental records in the region which also show more frequent climate fluctuations between B12 and 65 ka. There is evidence for a high degree of synchrony in major river aggradation events across the Mediterranean in catchments with very different sizes, tectonic regimes and histories. Climate-related changes in catchmen

Near-infrared wavelength intersubband transitions in GaN∕AlN short period superlattices

Intersubband transitions in GaN∕AlN short period superlattices prepared by molecular beam epitaxy were investigated using the optical absorption technique. The peak position wavelengths of these transitions are found to span the spectral range of 1.35–2.90μm for samples cut into 45° waveguides with GaNquantum well thicknesses ranging between 1.70 and2.41nm. The Fermi energy levels are estimated from the carrier concentrations, which were measured using an electrochemical capacitance-voltage profiler. The well widths were inferred from comparing the measured peak position energy of the intersubband transitions and the bound state energy levels calculated using the transfer matrix method