On the derivation of the renewal equation from an age-dependent branching process: an epidemic modelling perspective

Renewal processes are a popular approach used in modelling infectious disease outbreaks. In a renewal process, previous infections give rise to future infections. However, while this formulation seems sensible, its application to infectious disease can be difficult to justify from first principles. It has been shown from the seminal work of Bellman and Harris that the renewal equation arises as the expectation of an age-dependent branching process. In this paper we provide a detailed derivation of the original Bellman Harris process. We introduce generalisations, that allow for time-varying reproduction numbers and the accounting of exogenous events, such as importations. We show how inference on the renewal equation is easy to accomplish within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Using off the shelf MCMC packages, we fit to South Korea COVID-19 case data to estimate reproduction numbers and importations. Our derivation provides the mathematical fundamentals and assumptions underpinning the use of the renewal equation for modelling outbreaks

The effect of metal ratio and precipitation agent on highly active iron-manganese mixed metal oxide catalysts for propane total oxidation

Iron-manganese mixed metal oxide catalysts with a range of Fe:Mn ratios were synthesised by co-precipitation using sodium carbonate and evaluated for total propane oxidation. The Fe0.50Mn0.50Ox catalyst was the most active, and this was due to increased surface area along with the formation of a Mn2O3 phase that was not present in the other catalysts. The effect of the precipitating agent was evaluated with the Fe0.50Mn0.50Ox catalyst, investigating preparation using (NH4)2CO3, K2CO3, NH4OH, KOH, and NaOH. In almost all cases, the activity of propane oxidation was increased compared to the Na2CO3-prepared catalyst, with the hydroxide-precipitated catalysts generally being more active than the carbonates. The NH4OH catalyst was the best performing and this was thought to be due to the formation of a highly active mixed defect spinel structure. Results demonstrate that highly active mixed metal oxide total oxidation catalysts can be prepared using abundant elements, and the choice of precipitating agent is important to maximise the activity

Ascaroside Expression in Caenorhabditis elegans Is Strongly Dependent on Diet and Developmental Stage

Background: The ascarosides form a family of small molecules that have been isolated from cultures of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. They are often referred to as “dauer pheromones” because most of them induce formation of long-lived and highly stress resistant dauer larvae. More recent studies have shown that ascarosides serve additional functions as social signals and mating pheromones. Thus, ascarosides have multiple functions. Until now, it has been generally assumed that ascarosides are constitutively expressed during nematode development. Methodology/Principal Findings: Cultures of C. elegans were developmentally synchronized on controlled diets. Ascarosides released into the media, as well as stored internally, were quantified by LC/MS. We found that ascaroside biosynthesis and release were strongly dependent on developmental stage and diet. The male attracting pheromone was verified to be a blend of at least four ascarosides, and peak production of the two most potent mating pheromone components, ascr#3 and asc#8 immediately preceded or coincided with the temporal window for mating. The concentration of ascr#2 increased under starvation conditions and peaked during dauer formation, strongly supporting ascr#2 as the main population density signal (dauer pheromone). After dauer formation, ascaroside production largely ceased and dauer larvae did not release any ascarosides. These findings show that both total ascaroside production and the relative proportions of individual ascarosides strongly correlate with these compounds' stage-specific biological functions. Conclusions/Significance: Ascaroside expression changes with development and environmental conditions. This is consistent with multiple functions of these signaling molecules. Knowledge of such differential regulation will make it possible to associate ascaroside production to gene expression profiles (transcript, protein or enzyme activity) and help to determine genetic pathways that control ascaroside biosynthesis. In conjunction with findings from previous studies, our results show that the pheromone system of C. elegans mimics that of insects in many ways, suggesting that pheromone signaling in C. elegans may exhibit functional homology also at the sensory level. In addition, our results provide a strong foundation for future behavioral modeling studies

Estudio comparativo sobre la deterioración de aceites por calentamiento en microonda y convencional

Refined cottonseed oil and hydrogenated palm oil were heated by two methods, i.e., conventionally by gas-cooker and microwaves. Quality assurance methods such as refractive index, color, diene content, acid value, peroxide value, TBA value, iodine value, petroleum ether insoluble oxidized fatty acid content and degree of polymerization were determined. Exposing the oil samples to various heating times and microwave oven power caused some hydrolysis to free fatty acids, accelerated the formation of hydroperoxides and secondary oxidation products. The values from each test increased with both the power settings of microware oven and time of heating. In general, the development of rancidity for refined cottonseed oil heated by microwaves was twice faster than that produced by conventional heating. Also, the chemical values for refined cottonseed oil were much higher than that of hydrogenated palm oil in all cases.Se han calentado aceites de semilla de algodón y de palma hidrogenado mediante dos métodos: convencionalmente en cocina de gas y microonda. Se han determinado como métodos de garantía de calidad el índice de refracción, color, contenido en dienos, índice de acidez, índice de peróxido, índice de TBA, índice de iodo, contenido en ácidos grasos oxidados insolubles en éter de petróleo y grado de polimerización. La exposición de las muestras de aceite a varios tiempos de calentamiento y potencia del horno microonda causó hidrólisis hacia ácidos grasos libres, aceleró la formación de hidroperóxidos y productos de oxidación secundarios. Los valores para cada test aumentaron con los ajustes de potencia del horno microonda y el tiempo de calentamiento. En general, el desarrollo de la rancidez para aceite de semilla de algodón refinado calentado por microonda fue 2 veces más rápido que el producido por calentamiento convencional. También, los índices químicos para aceites de semilla de algodón refinado fueron mucho mayores que los de aceite de palma hidrogenado en todos los casos

Design and testing of a 96-channel neural interface module for the Networked Neuroprosthesis system

Abstract Background The loss of motor functions resulting from spinal cord injury can have devastating implications on the quality of one’s life. Functional electrical stimulation has been used to help restore mobility, however, current functional electrical stimulation (FES) systems require residual movements to control stimulation patterns, which may be unintuitive and not useful for individuals with higher level cervical injuries. Brain machine interfaces (BMI) offer a promising approach for controlling such systems; however, they currently still require transcutaneous leads connecting indwelling electrodes to external recording devices. While several wireless BMI systems have been designed, high signal bandwidth requirements limit clinical translation. Case Western Reserve University has developed an implantable, modular FES system, the Networked Neuroprosthesis (NNP), to perform combinations of myoelectric recording and neural stimulation for controlling motor functions. However, currently the existing module capabilities are not sufficient for intracortical recordings. Methods Here we designed and tested a 1 × 4 cm, 96-channel neural recording module prototype to fit within the specifications to mate with the NNP. The neural recording module extracts power between 0.3–1 kHz, instead of transmitting the raw, high bandwidth neural data to decrease power requirements. Results The module consumed 33.6 mW while sampling 96 channels at approximately 2 kSps. We also investigated the relationship between average spiking band power and neural spike rate, which produced a maximum correlation of R = 0.8656 (Monkey N) and R = 0.8023 (Monkey W). Conclusion Our experimental results show that we can record and transmit 96 channels at 2ksps within the power restrictions of the NNP system and successfully communicate over the NNP network. We believe this device can be used as an extension to the NNP to produce a clinically viable, fully implantable, intracortically-controlled FES system and advance the field of bioelectronic medicine.https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147921/1/42234_2019_Article_19.pd

Associations Between High-Density Lipoprotein Particles and Ischemic Events by Vascular Domain, Sex, and Ethnicity A Pooled Cohort Analysis

Background: High-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol concentration (HDL-C) is an established atheroprotective marker, in particular for coronary artery disease; however, HDL particle concentration (HDL-P) may better predict risk. The associations of HDL-C and HDL-P with ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) among women and Blacks have not been well studied. We hypothesized that HDL-P would consistently be associated with MI and stroke among women and Blacks compared with HDL-C. Methods: We analyzed individual-level participant data in a pooled cohort of 4 large population studies without baseline atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: DHS (Dallas Heart Study; n=2535), ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; n=1595), MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis; n=6632), and PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease; n=5022). HDL markers were analyzed in adjusted Cox proportional hazard models for MI and ischemic stroke. Results: In the overall population (n=15 784), HDL-P was inversely associated with the combined outcome of MI and ischemic stroke, adjusted for cardiometabolic risk factors (hazard ratio [HR] for quartile 4 [Q4] versus quartile 1 [Q1], 0.64 [95% CI, 0.52-0.78]), as was HDL-C (HR for Q4 versus Q1, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.61-0.94]). Adjustment for HDL-C did not attenuate the inverse relationship between HDL-P and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, whereas adjustment for HDL-P attenuated all associations between HDL-C and events. HDL-P was inversely associated with the individual end points of MI and ischemic stroke in the overall population, including in women. HDL-P was inversely associated with MI among White participants but not among Black participants (HR for Q4 versus Q1 for Whites, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.35-0.69]; for Blacks, 1.22 [95% CI, 0.76-1.98];P-interaction=0.001). Similarly, HDL-C was inversely associated with MI among White participants (HR for Q4 versus Q1, 0.53 [95% CI, 0.36-0.78]) but had a weak direct association with MI among Black participants (HR for Q4 versus Q1, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.08-2.83];P-interactio

Comparative micro-epidemiology of pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreaks in a wild bird population

Understanding the epidemiological dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in wild birds is crucial for guiding effective surveillance and control measures. The spread of H5 HPAIV has been well characterized over large geographical and temporal scales. However, information about the detailed dynamics and demographics of individual outbreaks in wild birds is rare and important epidemiological parameters remain unknown. We present data from a wild population of long-lived birds (mute swans; Cygnus olor) that has experienced three outbreaks of related H5 HPAIVs in the past decade, specifically, H5N1 (2007), H5N8 (2016) and H5N6 (2017). Detailed demographic data were available and intense sampling was conducted before and after the outbreaks; hence the population is unusually suitable for exploring the natural epidemiology, evolution and ecology of HPAIV in wild birds. We show that key epidemiological features remain remarkably consistent across multiple outbreaks, including the timing of virus incursion and outbreak duration, and the presence of a strong age-structure in morbidity that likely arises from an equivalent age-structure in immunological responses. The predictability of these features across a series of outbreaks in a complex natural population is striking and contributes to our understanding of HPAIV in wild birds