Assessing Lake Response to Extreme Climate Change Using the Coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 Model: Case Study of Lake Zazari in Greece

Papadimos D, Demertzi K, Papamichail D. Assessing Lake Response to Extreme Climate Change Using the Coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 Model: Case Study of Lake Zazari in Greece. Water. 2022; 14(6):921. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14060921Lakes, either artificial or natural, are greatly important as a component in their catchments’ hydrology, but also as ecosystem service providers. However, due to climate change, they have begun to face numerous problems with their water quality and quantity. Furthermore, general circulation models (GCMs) show future climate change with a reduction in rainfall and increase in temperature. The aim of the current study is to present an application where GCMs and state-of-the-art hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 are combined for assessing the response of a Greek lake in terms of its water balance and water level under climate change. Four general circulation models (GCMs; GFDL-CM3, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR) for the extreme climate change scenario of RCP8.5 were used in the basin of Lake Zazari in Greece as a case study. Results showed that, by keeping the irrigated demands (the main water user) unchanged in the future, the lake exhibited a lower water level for all GCMs, fluctuating from −0.70 to −1.8 m for the mean (min)water level and from −0.30 to −1.20 m for the mean (max) water level. Instead of the above and by preserving the amount of withdraw water n from the lake at a certain percentage of inflows, the irrigated area should be reduced from 54.1% to 64.05% depending on the circulation model

A Simplistic Approach for Assessing Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Lakes and Reservoirs with Regulated Superficial Outflow

Demertzi, K.; Papadimos, D.; Aschonitis, V.; Papamichail, D. A Simplistic Approach for Assessing Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Lakes and Reservoirs with Regulated Superficial Outflow. Hydrology 2019, 6, 61This study proposes a simplistic model for assessing the hydroclimatic vulnerability of lakes/reservoirs (LRs) that preserve their steady-state conditions based on regulated superficial discharge (Qd) out of the LR drainage basin. The model is a modification of the Bracht-Flyr et al. method that was initially proposed for natural lakes in closed basins with no superficial discharge outside the basin (Qd = 0) and under water-limited environmental conditions {mean annual ratio of potential/reference evapotranspiration (ETo) versus rainfall (P) greater than 1}. In the proposed modified approach, an additional Qd function is included. The modified model is applied using as a case study the Oreastiada Lake, which is located inside the Kastoria basin in Greece. Six years of observed data of P, ETo, Qd, and lake topography were used to calibrate the modified model based on the current conditions. The calibrated model was also used to assess the future lake conditions based on the future climatic projections (mean conditions of 2061-2080) derived by 19 general circulation models (GCMs) for three cases of climate change (three cases of Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The modified method can be used as a diagnostic tool in water-limited environments for analyzing the superficial discharge changes of LRs under di erent climatic conditions and to support the design of new management strategies for mitigating the impact of climate change on (a) flooding conditions, (b) hydroelectric production, (c) irrigation/industrial/domestic use and (d) minimum ecological flows to downstream rivers. Hydrology 6(3), 61. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology603006

Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) in Attica Region, Greece using climate models upon the climate scenarios A1B and A2. ORIENTGATE Technical Report

The study was commissioned within the preparation of the River Basin Management Plan of Attica Water District (Ministry of Environment 2013). Its main purpose was to: a) quantify the effects of drought and water shortage in the water district of Attica, b) to examine possible methodologies for predicting future incidents and c) to propose remedies for various levels of risk. This essay aims to strengthen the effectiveness of the above "Drought and Water shortage Management Plan" of the Attica Water District, by enhancing the forecasting process of future drought incidents

Perniosis (chilblains) masquerading as CA-MRSA: a case report

Perniosis (chilblains) is a vasospastic, inflammatory disease that occurs when the skin is subjected to cold above the freezing point, under damp conditions. Erythematous (violaceous) blisters, ulcerations or pustules that sit on an edematous base, accompanied by pain, burning or itching, are usually evident. To the inexperienced clinician it may resemble community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and could lead to inappropriate treatment. Here we report such a case