Deficit Limits, Budget Rules and Fiscal Policy

The paper presents a simple model for discussing the effects of deficit limits and budget rules on fiscal policy. I find that limits on deficit- output ratios provide incentives to implement procyclical policies when the economy is in intermediate states, and countercyclical policies only in very “good” and very “bad” economic times. As a result, fiscal “reaction functions” are not monotonically related to the state of the economy. Deficit limits are found to exert discipline only provided the limit is tight and the expected sanction large, albeit at a relatively large welfare cost. Moreover, when fiscal choices are made under a veil of ignorance about the output gap, an increase in volatility is likely to raise the level of the budget deficit. Finally, concerning the design of fiscal frameworks, when excessive deficits arise from a political bias, deficit limits should be symmetric and not state-contingent.Fiscal Rules, SGP, Pro-cyclical Fiscal Policy

Trade, Wages and ´Superstars’

We study the effect “globalization” on wage inequality. Our “global” economy resembles Rosen (1981) “Superstars” economy, where a) innovations in production and communication technologies enable suppliers to reach a larger mass of consumers and to improve the (perceived) quality of their products and b) trade barriers fall. When transport cost fall, income is redistributed away from the non-exporting to the exporting sector of the economy. As the latter turns out to employ workers of higher skill and pay, the effect is to raise wage inequality. Whether the least skilled are stand to lose or gain from improved production or communication technologies, in contrast, depends on whether technology is skill-complement or substitute. The model provides an intuitive explanation for why changes in wage premia are so strongly affected by export’ growth in plant-level empirical investigations (Bernard and Jensen (1997)).International trade, wage inequality, technological change

'Rules of Thumb' for Sovereign Debt Crises

Sovereign Default, Debt Crises

Working on the Train? The Role of Technical Progress and Trade in Explaining Wage Differentials in Italian Firms

This paper presents firm- level evidence on the dynamics of the relative demand for non-manual workers in Italian manufacturing during the 1990s. The analysis provides a number of interesting results. First, within-firm skill upgrading is the main determinant of the increase in the non-manual wage bill share. By contrast, demand changes associated to trade have shifted employment away from skill-intensive firms. Second, while the relative number of hours worked by skilled workers within firms has risen, the hourly wage premium has fallen. Third, within-firm skill upgrading is strongly and significantly related to investment in computers and R&D, suggesting skill-biased technical progress as the main explanation for the increase in the relative demand for non-manual workers. Finally, the paper shows that failing to disaggregate annual wages into the number of hours worked and hourly wages, leads to underestimate the skill-bias of technical progress.wage differentials, skill bias, technical progress, globalization

Debt sustainability and economic convergence of euro-area Member States: Challenges and Solutions

This paper argues that fiscal convergence in the Euro area has been achieved at the expenses of real divergence in unemployment, investment and at, at least temporarily, growth. Statistical and econometric analysis support the view that the current fiscal framework has addressed debt sustainability concerns, but has imparted a pro-cyclical bias, which has contributed to economic divergence. The recent flexibility guidelines are a step in the right direction, but they are unlikely to have sizable effects. A reform of the fiscal framework and a mechanism for an intra-European unemployment insurance scheme is proposed

Writing off, Restructuring or Refinancing the Debt? The IMF’s role in the Greek Debt Crisis

This paper looks at the recent debt crisis in Greece and argues that the crisis exemplifies a sequence of systematic mistakes made by International Financial Institutions, mistakes whose consequences had been clearly anticipated at the time of the first bail-out and could have been avoided. I will argue that the “original sin” of international creditors has been that of refinancing, rather than partially writing off, the debt. This mistake has led to excessively restrictive policies, and has ultimately to interventions of bail-out/in much larger than those which would have solved the problem at the outset, causing unnecessary pain to the economy and damaging both creditors’ and debtors’ interests

The Twin Effects of Globalization - Evidence from a Sample of Indian Manufacturing Firms

Employees of globalized firms face a riskier menu of labor market outcomes. They face a more uncertain stream of earnings and riskier employment prospects. However, they may also have stronger incentives to train and upgrade their skills and/or may benefit from more rapid careers. Hence, the costs of uncertainty and the benefits of skill upgrading associated with globalization may be twin to each other. We provide statistical evidence of this so far neglected trade-off for a sample of Indian manufacturing firms.globalization, uncertainty, training, labor markets, India

Wage Premia and Skill Upgrading in Italy: Why Didn´t the Hound Bark?

This paper presents firm level evidence on the dynamics of nonmanual wage premia and employment shares in Italian manufacturing during the nineties. We find that the relative stability of aggregate wage premia and employment shares hides o¤setting disaggregate forces. First, while technical progress raises the relative demand for skilled labor within firms, demand changes associated with exports reduce the relative demand for skills. Second, within the class of nonmanual workers, wage premia and employment shares of executives rise substantially, whereas those of clerks fall in a similar proportion. We also find that the export status of firms plays a key role in explaining labour market dynamics, as exporters account for most of both demand-related and technology-related shifts. Overall, our results for Italy question the general validity of the conventional view that emphasizes the role of labor market institutions, as opposed to trade and technology, in determining wage and employment dynamics in continental Europe.wage differentials, technological change, international trade

The Twin Effects of Globalization

\'Globalized\' workers enjoy a riskier, but potentially more rewarding, menu of labor market outcomes. This, so far overlooked, feature of globalization is documented here for a sample of Indian manufacturing Þrms. Firms subject to external exposure, be they exporting, import-competing or foreign-owned, indeed face higher earnings variability and job insecurity. At the same time, though, the employees of foreign-owned and import-competing firms are more frequently involved in training programs than employees of Þrms not subject to foreign competition. Similarly, the employees of exporting firms are promoted more frequently than otherwise. The \'bad\' and the \'good\' labormarket effects of globalization are thus twin to each other. Concentrating on just one side of the coin gives a misleading picture of globalization.

The twin effects of globalization

Employees of"globalized"firms face a riskier, but potentially more rewarding, menu of labor market outcomes. The authors document this neglected tradeoff of globalization for a sample of Indian manufacturing firms. On the one hand, the employees of firms subject to foreign competition face a more uncertain stream of earnings and riskier employment prospects. On the other hand, they enjoy a more rapid career growth and have more opportunities to train and upgrade their skills. The negative uncertainty costs and the positive incentive effects of globalization are thus twin to each other. Concentrating on just one side of the coin gives a misleading picture of globalization.Small Scale Enterprise,Environmental Economics&Policies,Microfinance,Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Microfinance,Private Participation in Infrastructure,Small Scale Enterprise