On the Improvement of Default Forecast Through Textual Analysis

Textual analysis is a widely used methodology in several research areas. In this paper we apply textual analysis to augment the conventional set of account defaults drivers with new text based variables. Through the employment of ad hoc dictionaries and distance measures we are able to classify each account transaction into qualitative macro-categories. The aim is to classify bank account users into different client profiles and verify whether they can act as effective predictors of default through supervised classification models

Information theoretic causality detection between financial and sentiment data

The interaction between the flow of sentiment expressed on blogs and media and the dynamics of the stock market prices are analyzed through an information-theoretic measure, the transfer entropy, to quantify causality relations. We analyzed daily stock price and daily social media sentiment for the top 50 companies in the Standard & Poor (S&P) index during the period from November 2018 to November 2020. We also analyzed news mentioning these companies during the same period. We found that there is a causal flux of information that links those companies. The largest fraction of significant causal links is between prices and between sentiments, but there is also significant causal information which goes both ways from sentiment to prices and from prices to sentiment. We observe that the strongest causal signal between sentiment and prices is associated with the Tech sector

Network Based Evidence of the Financial Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic

How much the largest worldwide companies, belonging to different sectors of the economy, are suffering from the pandemic? Are economic relations among them changing? In this paper, we address such issues by analyzing the top 50 S&P companies by means of market and textual data. Our work proposes a network analysis model that combines such two types of information to highlight the connections among companies with the purpose of investigating the relationships before and during the pandemic crisis. In doing so, we leverage a large amount of textual data through the employment of a sentiment score which is coupled with standard market data. Our results show that the COVID-19 pandemic has largely affected the US productive system, however differently sector by sector and with more impact during the second wave compared to the first

Dog filariosis in the Lazio region (Central Italy): first report on the presence of Dirofilaria repens

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological investigations were carried out in the Lazio Region to assess the status of canine filariosis and to evaluate the actual risk for veterinary and medical public health. METHODS: Since August 2001 to June 2003, a total of 972 canine blood samples, collected in public kennels and from private owners animals of the 5 Provinces of the Region, were tested. The presence of filarial parasites was evaluated by microscopy and bio-molecular techniques; the species identification was performed by means of the same diagnostic tools. RESULTS: A total of 17/972 (1.75%; 95%CI 1.06%–2.85%) blood samples were parasitized by D. repens,13 out them drawn by dogs resident in the Province of Roma, and 4 in the other provinces. Multivariate analysis was performed in order to evaluate the association between filariosis and risk factors. The origin from coastal territories seems to be a significant risk factor to acquire the infection. CONCLUSION: This is the first report of canine filariosis in the Lazio Region, where D. repens was before reported only in foxes. The risk of human zoonotic infection is stressed, and the absence of other filarial species is discusse

Evidence of Simultaneous Circulation of West Nile and Usutu Viruses in Mosquitoes Sampled in Emilia-Romagna Region (Italy) in 2009

BACKGROUND: In recent years human diseases due to mosquito-borne viruses were increasingly reported in Emilia-Romagna region (Italy), from the chikungunya virus in 2007 to the West Nile virus (WNV) in 2008. An extensive entomological survey was performed in 2009 to establish the presence and distribution of mosquito arboviruses in this region, with particular reference to flaviviruses. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From May 6 to October 31, a total of 190,516 mosquitoes were sampled in georeferenced stations, grouped in 1,789 pools according date of collection, location, and species, and analyzed by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to detect the presence of RNA belong to Flavivirus genus. WNV was detected in 27 mosquito pools, producing sequences similar to those of birds and human strains obtained in 2008 outbreak, pointed out the probable virus overwintering. Isolation of WNV was achieved from one of these pools. Moreover 56 pools of mosquitoes tested positive for Usutu virus (USUV). Most PCR positive pools consisted of Culex pipiens, which also was the most analyzed mosquito species (81.4% of specimens); interestingly, USUV RNA was also found in two Aedes albopictus mosquito pools. Simultaneous circulation of WNV and USUV in the survey area was highlighted by occurrence of 8 mosquito WNV- and USUV-positive pools and by the overlaying of the viruses "hot spots", obtained by kernel density estimation (KDE) analysis. Land use of sampled stations pointed out a higher proportion of WNV-positive Cx. pipiens pool in rural environments respect the provenience of total sampled pool, while the USUV-positive pools were uniformly captured in the different environments. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Obtained data highlighting the possible role of Cx. pipiens mosquito as the main vector for WNV and USUV in Northern Italy, and the possible involvement of Ae. albopictus mosquito in USUV cycle. The described mosquito-based surveillance could constitute the foundation for a public health alert system targeting mosquito borne arboviruses

A Cross-Sectional Survey to Estimate the Cat Population and Ownership Profiles in a Semirural Area of Central Italy

Understanding animal population size and its demographic features is essential to address Public Health policies as well as to provide valuable information to pet industries and veterinary practitioners. Nevertheless, official data on feline population are not available worldwide. In the present study, the owned cat population size, its demographic attributes, and the ownership profiles have been investigated through a face-to-face questionnaire in a semirural area of Central Italy. The human : cat ratio was equal to 6.8 (95% CI: 5.7–7.5); 29.3% of households own at least one cat. The majority of cats were living in a rural area (67.8%) and outdoors, were neutered (70.5%), and were fed with commercial food (54.8%) and they visited a veterinarian 1-2 times a year (43.3%). The cat ownership was strongly associated with people living in a rural area and owning another pet. As the cat owned population was mainly kept outdoors in rural areas, the possible relation between the owned and the stray animals is worthy to be monitored in future researches. Our study revealed that the feline owned population was larger than expected and that social and economic human factors do not influence the cat ownership. Health Authorities and veterinary practitioners should promote responsible ownership to increase the veterinary care, to intensify the official identification, and to properly manage the outdoor lifestyle

Twelve-year analysis of cattle and buffalo slaughtering in Lazio Region (2000-2012): animal husbandry and veterinary public health implications

In recent years, beef meat chain has undergone major transformations due to Community legislation and market changes. The purpose of this work is to analyse the information recorded in Banca Dati Nazionale (BDN; Italian computerised database for the identification and registration of bovine animals) on cattle and buffaloes slaughtered between 2000 and 2012 and related to Lazio Region as a result of breeding and/or slaughtering place. The analysis of the data showed a negative trend (-20.7%) for cattle slaughtered from 2000 to 2012. Most of this animals had been raised in Lazio Region (86%) and in particular in the province of Frosinone. The average age at slaughter for female is about 4 years (1417 days) and for males of 547 days. The buffaloes, however, are intended for slaughter at an average age of about 8 years, if female, and about one year if male

A spatial, statistical approach to map the risk of milk contamination by β-hexachlorocyclohexane in dairy farms

In May 2005, beta-hexachlorocyclohexane (β-HCH) was found in a sample of bovine bulk milk from a farm in the Sacco River valley (Latium region, central Italy). The primary source of contamination was suspected to be industrial discharge into the environment with the Sacco River as the main mean of dispersion. Since then, a surveillance programme on bulk milk of the local farms was carried out by the veterinary services. In order to estimate the spatial probability of β- HCH contamination of milk produced in the Sacco River valley and draw probability maps of contamination, probability maps of β-HCH values in milk were estimated by indicator kriging (IK), a geo-statistical estimator, and traditional logistic regression (LR) combined with a geographical information systems approach. The former technique produces a spatial view of probabilities above a specific threshold at non-sampled locations on the basis of observed values in the area, while LR gives the probabilities in specific locations on the basis of certain environmental predictors, namely the distance from the river, the distance from the pollution site, the elevation above the river level and the intrinsic vulnerability of hydro-geological formations. Based on the β-HCH data from 2005 in the Sacco River valley, the two techniques resulted in similar maps of high risk of milk contamination. However, unlike the IK method, the LR model was capable of estimating coefficients that could be used in case of future pollution episodes. The approach presented produces probability maps and define highrisk areas already in the early stages of an emergency before sampling operations have been carried out

Causes of death in dogs in the province of Rome (Italy)

Dogs share with humans several zoonotic diseases as well as some important determinants of degenerative syndromes and tumours. For this reason, systematic surveillance on small animal disease carried out through the collection and analysis of necropsy records could be helpful to public health. To describe the causes of death in dogs from the province of Rome (Italy) submitted to the Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale del Lazio e della Toscana for necropsy during 2003–2007, a retrospective study was conducted on diagnostic data of 870 dogs. The final diagnosis was established by anatomo-histopathological examinations and, when needed, by ancillary laboratory tests. The most common causes of death were 'infectious disease' (23%) and 'poisoning' (17%). In 5% of the cases, the cause remained undetermined. The frequency of 'poisoning' was higher (39%) in stray dogs, while 'infectious disease' was more frequent (49%) in dogs from breeding farms. Parvovirosis was the most frequent infectious disease (33%) while anticoagulants accounted for 30% of the cases involving toxicity. Death by neoplastic lesions was quite infrequent (7%). Findings from this study provide veterinarians with an overview of the causes of death in dogs and it could provide public health authorities with new data about both novel and re-emerging threats

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in dairy farm