Estimating the small area effects of austerity measures in the UK

Governments across Europe are starting to implement a range of cost-cutting and income generating programmes in order to re-balance their fiscal budgets following substantial investments in stabilising domestic financial institutions in 2008 and 2009. One method of doing this has been to increase tax rates such as the increase in VAT in the UK from 17.5% to 20% from January 1st 2011. In this paper we explore the different spatial impact of this VAT rise on household expenditure on public and private transport and communication technology from 2006 to 2016. We do this by combining three elements: an agent-based dynamic population microsimulation model that produces projected snapshots of the UK population in 2006, 2011 and 2016; an expenditure system model based on the familiar Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System approach; and synthetic small area census tables produced by projecting historical UK census data. Taken together these elements provide a toolkit for assessing the potential spatial impact of rising taxes or prices (or both) and we use them to compare small area projections of household expenditure under two scenarios. The first is a 'no intervention' scenario where prices and income align to UK government inflation forecasts and the second is a one-off non-reversed 2.5% increase in VAT on goods and services rated at 17.5% on 1st January 2011. We present results for different areas (rural vs urban/deprived vs affluent) and for different income groups within them and discuss the potential implications for the telecommunications industry and for the usage of public and private transport

The effect of food prices and household income on the British diet

This paper investigates the effect of price variations on the diet composition in Britain. It describes the dynamics of food demand in relation to food prices over time using data from the British National Food Survey (NFS) covering the period 1975-2000. Demand elasticities with respect to price elasticities are estimated by solving a quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) model controlling also for total expenditure on food, region of residence, household size, age of head of household, whether women are working, number of time in which the household buys ready food, household type and income quartiles. Focusing on the consumption technology function, effects of food price variation on calories intake, energy from fats and energy from carbohydrate have been explored deriving nutrients elasticities with respect to variation of food prices

The relationship between food consumption and socio-economic status: evidence among British youths

This paper investigates the relationship between nutrition and socio-economic status among British youths. It describes the dynamics of consumption over age and time using data from the British National Food Survey (NFS) covering the period 1975- 2000. Daily calories-age relationships for men and women are estimated by solving a non-linear least square model with a roughness penalty function approach. Focusing on young age groups, trends of consumption over the 25-year period of study and the cohorts effect have been explored across three classes of age. Finally, an exploration of specific trend variations in eating habits has been implemented controlling for income distribution

Public Finance, Governance, and Cash Transfers in Alleviating Poverty and Inequality in Chile

As the Chilean government seeks to reduce both poverty and inequality through cash transfers to poor households, local governments are responsible for both identifying the poor and allocating transfers. Until recently, however, evaluating the effectiveness of local governments in enacting these policies has been restricted by data limitations. The paper builds on recent evidence that cash transfers had highly variable impacts on poverty and inequality at the county level in 2002. In particular, we explore how local public finance and the strength of the governing mandate influence the efficiency of cash transfers. With a richly-specified model, we find that public spending on goods and services, the fraction of available subsidies claimed by the local government, and the share of county land that is zoned for industrial purposes are all correlated with considerable reductions in poverty and inequality. In addition, the strength of the governing mandate weakly influences the efficiency of transfers in reducing poverty, but not inequality. These results demonstrate that a better understanding of such institutions can lead to more efficient targeting for social programs.Monetary transfers; Inequality; Poverty

Credit crunched: Single parents, universal credit and the struggle to make work pay

This paper examines the likely impact of Universal Credit on the incomes and work incentives of single parent families. Using the UK module of EUROMOD (version F6.20), we also simulate how single parents' household income, and their work incentives, would change following adjustments to the universal credit structure. We examine four main alternative scenarios: 1) reducing the overall universal credit taper rate from 65% to 55%; 2) Increasing the basic (standard) allowances in universal credit for single parents; 3) Increasing the earnings disregard in universal credit for single parents and 4) Increasing the income tax threshold for the basic tax rate. We also examine the impact on single parents of an increase in the minimum wage. Finally, we examine the impact on the Exchequer of a five percentage point increase in the single parent employment rate, in terms of benefits saved and taxes paid

The National Minimum Wage and its interaction with the tax and benefits system: A focus on Universal Credit

This paper uses the UK module of EUROMOD to examine the likely impact of Universal Credit (UC) on the incomes and work incentives of families containing NMW workers ("NMW families"). It in part updates previous work done for the Low Pay Commission (Brewer, May and Phillips, 2009). The analysis was completed after the 2012 Autumn Statement, but before the Spring 2013 Budget, and so does not reflect any changes to personal taxes and benefits for 2014-15 announced then

Research note: The effect of different indexation scenarios on child poverty in the UK

Using the tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD and Family Resources Survey, we investigate what would have happened to child poverty in the UK in the periods 2010/11-2015/16 and 2015/16-2020/21 under a range of different indexation scenarios of children's benefits. We find that between 2010/11 and 2015/16 both the relative and absolute child poverty rates would have been lower if children's benefits were uprated by RPI or if the government had introduced the Child Tax Credit uprating package it promised in 2010. Uprating children's benefits up to 2020/21 as announced by the government in the Autumn Financial Statement in 2014 would result in real benefit cuts and increase in child poverty. However, triple lock indexation of children's benefits would sustain their real value and would reduce child poverty rates substantially

Cell death pathology: Perspective for human diseases

AbstractApoptosis, a genetically regulated form of cell death with distinct biochemical and morphological features, plays a relevant physiological and pathological role in the organism, being pivotal in the maintenance of tissue development and homeostasis in the adult as well as in the regulation of immune responses. Deregulation of this process causes several human disorders including cancer, autoimmune and neurodegenerative diseases. Thus, modulation of the apoptotic process and of cell death in general, is a potential therapeutic approach for the treatment of several human pathologies

Simulating the Impact on the Local Economy of Alternative Management Scenarios for Natural Areas

This working paper estimates the impact on the local economy of the High Garda Natural Park of alternative management scenarios for the West Garda Regional Forest. The local economy is specialized in tourist services and strongly linked to the tourist presence and their level of expenditure. We wish to investigate the effects of the participative management strategy, which takes into account users preferences and the non-participative strategy, using the SAM multiplier analysis. The local SAM has been constructed considering three sectors: agriculture, tourism and a third aggregate sector including all the other activities. The resident population has been divided into two categories: residents employed in the tourist sector and the remaining resident population. The SAM analysis shows that the accounting representation of the local economy is meaningful and that the participative program, if chosen by the central regional management, would be the most desirable program also at the local level.Tourism, SAM, Multiplier analysis