Precipitation frequency in Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX ensembles from 0.44° to convection-permitting resolution: impact of model resolution and convection representation

Recent studies using convection-permitting (CP) climate simulations have demonstrated a step-change in the representation of heavy rainfall and rainfall characteristics (frequency-intensity) compared to coarser resolution Global and Regional climate models. The goal of this study is to better understand what explains the weaker frequency of precipitation in the CP ensemble by assessing the triggering process of precipitation in the different ensembles of regional climate simulations available over Europe. We focus on the statistical relationship between tropospheric temperature, humidity and precipitation to understand how the frequency of precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean is impacted by model resolution and the representation of convection (parameterized vs. explicit). We employ a multi-model data-set with three different resolutions (0.44°, 0.11° and 0.0275°) produced in the context of the MED-CORDEX, EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study "Convective Phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean" (FPSCONV). The multi-variate approach is applied to all model ensembles, and to several surface stations where the integrated water vapor (IWV) is derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements. The results show that all model ensembles capture the temperature dependence of the critical value of IWV (IWVcv), above which an increase in precipitation frequency occurs, but the differences between the models in terms of the value of IWVcv, and the probability of its being exceeded, can be large at higher temperatures. The lower frequency of precipitation in convection-permitting simulations is not only explained by higher temperatures but also by a higher IWVcv necessary to trigger precipitation at similar temperatures, and a lower probability to exceed this critical value. The spread between models in simulating IWVcv and the probability of exceeding IWVcv is reduced over land in the ensemble of models with explicit convection, especially at high temperatures, when the convective fraction of total precipitation becomes more important and the influence of the representation of entrainment in models thus becomes more important. Over lowlands, both model resolution and convection representation affect precipitation triggering while over mountainous areas, resolution has the highest impact due to orography-induced triggering processes. Over the sea, since lifting is produced by large-scale convergence, the probability to exceed IWVcv does not depend on temperature, and the model resolution does not have a clear impact on the results

Global exposure of population and land‐use to meteorological droughts under different warming levels and SSPs: a CORDEX‐based study

Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population, forests, croplands and pastures exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981–2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs: 1.5°C to 4°C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the SSP3 at GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (versus 1981–2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, that is, more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 at GWL4, approximately 2 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of forests and croplands (respectively, 6% and 11%) and 1.5 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI this extent will rise to 17 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of forests (49%), 6 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of pastures (78%) and 12 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of croplands (67%), being mid-latitudes the most affected. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change

MEXEM – Mars Exposed Extremophile Mixture – a space experiment to investigate the capability of anaerobic organisms to survive on Mars

Assessing the habitability of Mars and detecting life, if it ever existed there, depends on knowledge of whether the combined environmental stresses experienced on Mars are compatible with life as we know it and whether a record of that life could ever be detected. So far, only few investigations were performed to understand the combined effect of different environmental stresses on survival and growth of anaerobic and extremophilic organisms. In the space experiment MEXEM (formerly known as MASE-in-SPACE) the hypothesis will be tested that selected terrestrial organisms, enrichment cultures and original samples from extreme Mars-analogue environments on Earth are able to withstand the Martian environ- mental stress factors due to their highly effective cellular and molecular adaptation and repair mechanisms. In addition, artificially fossilized and aged isolates from Mars-analogue environments on Earth will be examined and assessed with respect to their suitability for biosigna- ture identification. MEXEM samples will be (i) oxygen-depleted natural sediment samples, (ii) natural sediments spiked with selected, defined strains representative for the respective analogue site, (iii) individual (facultative) anaerobic / micro-aerophilic species including ciliates and viruses, (iv) defined mixtures of these biological entities, (v) isolated strains from samples collected inside the ISS and (vi) artificially fossilized isolates from the natural environments. Most of these samples and isolates were obtained from Mars-analogue envi- ronments on Earth in the frame of the EC funded project MASE (Grant Agreement 607297) and from the space experiment EXTREMOPHILES (PI C. Moissl-Eichinger). MEXEM will be flown outside on the ISS in the new exobiology facility ESA is building now. It offers the possibility to simulate of the martian environment, in particular the martian UV cl e, which cannot be done in the lab, but also martian atmosphere and pressure in LEO

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution. Part I: Evaluation of precipitation

Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of ∼ 3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The simulations are compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations and coarse resolution (∼ 12 km) RCMs with parameterized convection. The model simulations and observations are compared with respect to mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency, and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons. The results show that kilometer-scale models produce a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse resolution RCMs. The most significant improvements are found for heavy precipitation and precipitation frequency on both daily and hourly time scales in the summer season. In general, kilometer-scale models tend to produce more intense precipitation and reduced wet-hour frequency compared to coarse resolution models. On average, the multi-model mean shows a reduction of bias from ∼ −40 at 12 km to ∼ −3 at 3 km for heavy hourly precipitation in summer. Furthermore, the uncertainty ranges i.e. the variability between the models for wet hour frequency is reduced by half with the use of kilometer-scale models. Although differences between the model simulations at the kilometer-scale and observations still exist, it is evident that these simulations are superior to the coarse-resolution RCM simulations in the representing precipitation in the present-day climate, and thus offer a promising way forward for investigations of climate and climate change at local to regional scales. © 2021, The Author(s)

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation

Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of ∼3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The simulations are compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations and coarse resolution (∼ 12 km) RCMs with parameterized convection. The model simulations and observations are compared with respect to mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency, and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons. The results show that kilometer-scale models produce a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse resolution RCMs. The most significant improvements are found for heavy precipitation and precipitation frequency on both daily and hourly time scales in the summer season. In general, kilometer-scale models tend to produce more intense precipitation and reduced wet-hour frequency compared to coarse resolution models. On average, the multi-model mean shows a reduction of bias from ∼ −40% at 12 km to ∼ −3% at 3 km for heavy hourly precipitation in summer. Furthermore, the uncertainty ranges i.e. the variability between the models for wet hour frequency is reduced by half with the use of kilometer-scale models. Although differences between the model simulations at the kilometer-scale and observations still exist, it is evident that these simulations are superior to the coarse-resolution RCM simulations in the representing precipitation in the present-day climate, and thus offer a promising way forward for investigations of climate and climate change at local to regional scales

Restriction of HIV-1 Replication in Monocytes Is Abolished by Vpx of SIVsmmPBj

Background: Human primary monocytes are refractory to infection with the human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) or transduction with HIV-1-derived vectors. In contrast, efficient single round transduction of monocytes is mediated by vectors derived from simian immunodeficiency virus of sooty mangabeys (SIVsmmPBj), depending on the presence of the viral accessory protein Vpx. Methods and Findings: Here we analyzed whether Vpx of SIVsmmPBj is sufficient for transduction of primary monocytes by HIV-1-derived vectors. To enable incorporation of PBj Vpx into HIV-1 vector particles, a HA-Vpr/Vpx fusion protein was generated. Supplementation of HIV-1 vector particles with this fusion protein was not sufficient to facilitate transduction of human monocytes. However, monocyte transduction with HIV-1-derived vectors was significantly enhanced after delivery of Vpx proteins by virus-like particles (VLPs) derived from SIVsmmPBj. Moreover, pre-incubation with Vpx-containing VLPs restored replication capacity of infectious HIV-1 in human monocytes. In monocytes of non-human primates, single-round transduction with HIV-1 vectors was enabled. Conclusion: Vpx enhances transduction of primary human and even non-human monocytes with HIV-1-derived vectors, only if delivered in the background of SIVsmmPBj-derived virus-like particles. Thus, for accurate Vpx function the presence of SIVsmmPBj capsid proteins might be required. Vpx is essential to overcome a block of early infection steps in primary monocytes

SAMHD1-Deficient CD14+ Cells from Individuals with Aicardi-Goutières Syndrome Are Highly Susceptible to HIV-1 Infection

Myeloid blood cells are largely resistant to infection with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). Recently, it was reported that Vpx from HIV-2/SIVsm facilitates infection of these cells by counteracting the host restriction factor SAMHD1. Here, we independently confirmed that Vpx interacts with SAMHD1 and targets it for ubiquitin-mediated degradation. We found that Vpx-mediated SAMHD1 degradation rendered primary monocytes highly susceptible to HIV-1 infection; Vpx with a T17A mutation, defective for SAMHD1 binding and degradation, did not show this activity. Several single nucleotide polymorphisms in the SAMHD1 gene have been associated with Aicardi-Goutières syndrome (AGS), a very rare and severe autoimmune disease. Primary peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from AGS patients homozygous for a nonsense mutation in SAMHD1 (R164X) lacked endogenous SAMHD1 expression and support HIV-1 replication in the absence of exogenous activation. Our results indicate that within PBMC from AGS patients, CD14+ cells were the subpopulation susceptible to HIV-1 infection, whereas cells from healthy donors did not support infection. The monocytic lineage of the infected SAMHD1 -/- cells, in conjunction with mostly undetectable levels of cytokines, chemokines and type I interferon measured prior to infection, indicate that aberrant cellular activation is not the cause for the observed phenotype. Taken together, we propose that SAMHD1 protects primary CD14+ monocytes from HIV-1 infection confirming SAMHD1 as a potent lentiviral restriction factor

Global assessment of genomic variation in cattle by genome resequencing and high-throughput genotyping

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Integration of genomic variation with phenotypic information is an effective approach for uncovering genotype-phenotype associations. This requires an accurate identification of the different types of variation in individual genomes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We report the integration of the whole genome sequence of a single Holstein Friesian bull with data from single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) array technologies to determine a comprehensive spectrum of genomic variation. The performance of resequencing SNP detection was assessed by combining SNPs that were identified to be either in identity by descent (IBD) or in copy number variation (CNV) with results from SNP array genotyping. Coding insertions and deletions (indels) were found to be enriched for size in multiples of 3 and were located near the N- and C-termini of proteins. For larger indels, a combination of split-read and read-pair approaches proved to be complementary in finding different signatures. CNVs were identified on the basis of the depth of sequenced reads, and by using SNP and CGH arrays.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results provide high resolution mapping of diverse classes of genomic variation in an individual bovine genome and demonstrate that structural variation surpasses sequence variation as the main component of genomic variability. Better accuracy of SNP detection was achieved with little loss of sensitivity when algorithms that implemented mapping quality were used. IBD regions were found to be instrumental for calculating resequencing SNP accuracy, while SNP detection within CNVs tended to be less reliable. CNV discovery was affected dramatically by platform resolution and coverage biases. The combined data for this study showed that at a moderate level of sequencing coverage, an ensemble of platforms and tools can be applied together to maximize the accurate detection of sequence and structural variants.</p

Intravenous alteplase for stroke with unknown time of onset guided by advanced imaging: systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data

Background: Patients who have had a stroke with unknown time of onset have been previously excluded from thrombolysis. We aimed to establish whether intravenous alteplase is safe and effective in such patients when salvageable tissue has been identified with imaging biomarkers. Methods: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data for trials published before Sept 21, 2020. Randomised trials of intravenous alteplase versus standard of care or placebo in adults with stroke with unknown time of onset with perfusion-diffusion MRI, perfusion CT, or MRI with diffusion weighted imaging-fluid attenuated inversion recovery (DWI-FLAIR) mismatch were eligible. The primary outcome was favourable functional outcome (score of 0–1 on the modified Rankin Scale [mRS]) at 90 days indicating no disability using an unconditional mixed-effect logistic-regression model fitted to estimate the treatment effect. Secondary outcomes were mRS shift towards a better functional outcome and independent outcome (mRS 0–2) at 90 days. Safety outcomes included death, severe disability or death (mRS score 4–6), and symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020166903. Findings: Of 249 identified abstracts, four trials met our eligibility criteria for inclusion: WAKE-UP, EXTEND, THAWS, and ECASS-4. The four trials provided individual patient data for 843 individuals, of whom 429 (51%) were assigned to alteplase and 414 (49%) to placebo or standard care. A favourable outcome occurred in 199 (47%) of 420 patients with alteplase and in 160 (39%) of 409 patients among controls (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1·49 [95% CI 1·10–2·03]; p=0·011), with low heterogeneity across studies (I2=27%). Alteplase was associated with a significant shift towards better functional outcome (adjusted common OR 1·38 [95% CI 1·05–1·80]; p=0·019), and a higher odds of independent outcome (adjusted OR 1·50 [1·06–2·12]; p=0·022). In the alteplase group, 90 (21%) patients were severely disabled or died (mRS score 4–6), compared with 102 (25%) patients in the control group (adjusted OR 0·76 [0·52–1·11]; p=0·15). 27 (6%) patients died in the alteplase group and 14 (3%) patients died among controls (adjusted OR 2·06 [1·03–4·09]; p=0·040). The prevalence of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage was higher in the alteplase group than among controls (11 [3%] vs two [&lt;1%], adjusted OR 5·58 [1·22–25·50]; p=0·024). Interpretation: In patients who have had a stroke with unknown time of onset with a DWI-FLAIR or perfusion mismatch, intravenous alteplase resulted in better functional outcome at 90 days than placebo or standard care. A net benefit was observed for all functional outcomes despite an increased risk of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage. Although there were more deaths with alteplase than placebo, there were fewer cases of severe disability or death. Funding: None