Recalibrating single-study effect sizes using hierarchical Bayesian models

INTRODUCTION: There are growing concerns about commonly inflated effect sizes in small neuroimaging studies, yet no study has addressed recalibrating effect size estimates for small samples. To tackle this issue, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian model to adjust the magnitude of single-study effect sizes while incorporating a tailored estimation of sampling variance.METHODS: We estimated the effect sizes of case-control differences on brain structural features between individuals who were dependent on alcohol, nicotine, cocaine, methamphetamine, or cannabis and non-dependent participants for 21 individual studies (Total cases: 903; Total controls: 996). Then, the study-specific effect sizes were modeled using a hierarchical Bayesian approach in which the parameters of the study-specific effect size distributions were sampled from a higher-order overarching distribution. The posterior distribution of the overarching and study-specific parameters was approximated using the Gibbs sampling method.RESULTS: The results showed shrinkage of the posterior distribution of the study-specific estimates toward the overarching estimates given the original effect sizes observed in individual studies. Differences between the original effect sizes (i.e., Cohen's d) and the point estimate of the posterior distribution ranged from 0 to 0.97. The magnitude of adjustment was negatively correlated with the sample size (r = -0.27, p &lt; 0.001) and positively correlated with empirically estimated sampling variance (r = 0.40, p &lt; 0.001), suggesting studies with smaller samples and larger sampling variance tended to have greater adjustments. DISCUSSION: Our findings demonstrate the utility of the hierarchical Bayesian model in recalibrating single-study effect sizes using information from similar studies. This suggests that Bayesian utilization of existing knowledge can be an effective alternative approach to improve the effect size estimation in individual studies, particularly for those with smaller samples.</p

Recalibrating single-study effect sizes using hierarchical Bayesian models

INTRODUCTION: There are growing concerns about commonly inflated effect sizes in small neuroimaging studies, yet no study has addressed recalibrating effect size estimates for small samples. To tackle this issue, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian model to adjust the magnitude of single-study effect sizes while incorporating a tailored estimation of sampling variance.METHODS: We estimated the effect sizes of case-control differences on brain structural features between individuals who were dependent on alcohol, nicotine, cocaine, methamphetamine, or cannabis and non-dependent participants for 21 individual studies (Total cases: 903; Total controls: 996). Then, the study-specific effect sizes were modeled using a hierarchical Bayesian approach in which the parameters of the study-specific effect size distributions were sampled from a higher-order overarching distribution. The posterior distribution of the overarching and study-specific parameters was approximated using the Gibbs sampling method.RESULTS: The results showed shrinkage of the posterior distribution of the study-specific estimates toward the overarching estimates given the original effect sizes observed in individual studies. Differences between the original effect sizes (i.e., Cohen's d) and the point estimate of the posterior distribution ranged from 0 to 0.97. The magnitude of adjustment was negatively correlated with the sample size (r = -0.27, p &lt; 0.001) and positively correlated with empirically estimated sampling variance (r = 0.40, p &lt; 0.001), suggesting studies with smaller samples and larger sampling variance tended to have greater adjustments. DISCUSSION: Our findings demonstrate the utility of the hierarchical Bayesian model in recalibrating single-study effect sizes using information from similar studies. This suggests that Bayesian utilization of existing knowledge can be an effective alternative approach to improve the effect size estimation in individual studies, particularly for those with smaller samples.</p

Unraveling the molecular relevance of brain phenotypes: A comparative analysis of null models and test statistics.

Correlating transcriptional profiles with imaging-derived phenotypes has the potential to reveal possible molecular architectures associated with cognitive functions, brain development and disorders. Competitive null models built by resampling genes and self-contained null models built by spinning brain regions, along with varying test statistics, have been used to determine the significance of transcriptional associations. However, there has been no systematic evaluation of their performance in imaging transcriptomics analyses. Here, we evaluated the performance of eight different test statistics (mean, mean absolute value, mean squared value, max mean, median, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS), Weighted KS and the number of significant correlations) in both competitive null models and self-contained null models. Simulated brain maps (n = 1,000) and gene sets (n = 500) were used to calculate the probability of significance (Psig) for each statistical test. Our results suggested that competitive null models may result in false positive results driven by co-expression within gene sets. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the self-contained null models may fail to account for distribution characteristics (e.g., bimodality) of correlations between all available genes and brain phenotypes, leading to false positives. These two confounding factors interacted differently with test statistics, resulting in varying outcomes. Specifically, the sign-sensitive test statistics (i.e., mean, median, KS, Weighted KS) were influenced by co-expression bias in the competitive null models, while median and sign-insensitive test statistics were sensitive to the bimodality bias in the self-contained null models. Additionally, KS-based statistics produced conservative results in the self-contained null models, which increased the risk of false negatives. Comprehensive supplementary analyses with various configurations, including realistic scenarios, supported the results. These findings suggest utilizing sign-insensitive test statistics such as mean absolute value, max mean in the competitive null models and the mean as the test statistic for the self-contained null models. Additionally, adopting the confounder-matched (e.g., coexpression-matched) null models as an alternative to standard null models can be a viable strategy. Overall, the present study offers insights into the selection of statistical tests for imaging transcriptomics studies, highlighting areas for further investigation and refinement in the evaluation of novel and commonly used tests

Brain structural covariance network features are robust markers of early heavy alcohol use

Background and aimsRecently, we demonstrated that a distinct pattern of structural covariance networks (SCN) from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived measurements of brain cortical thickness characterized young adults with alcohol use disorder (AUD) and predicted current and future problematic drinking in adolescents relative to controls. Here, we establish the robustness and value of SCN for identifying heavy alcohol users in three additional independent studies.Design and settingCross-sectional and longitudinal studies using data from the Pediatric Imaging, Neurocognition and Genetics (PING) study (n = 400, age range = 14-22 years), the National Consortium on Alcohol and Neurodevelopment in Adolescence (NCANDA) (n = 272, age range = 17-22 years) and the Human Connectome Project (HCP) (n = 375, age range = 22-37 years).CasesCases were defined based on heavy alcohol use patterns or former alcohol use disorder (AUD) diagnoses: 50, 68 and 61 cases were identified. Controls had none or low alcohol use or absence of AUD: 350, 204 and 314 controls were selected.MeasurementsGraph theory metrics of segregation and integration were used to summarize SCN.FindingsMirroring our prior findings, and across the three data sets, cases had a lower clustering coefficient [area under the curve (AUC) = -0.029, P = 0.002], lower modularity (AUC = -0.14, P = 0.004), lower average shortest path length (AUC = -0.078, P = 0.017) and higher global efficiency (AUC = 0.007, P = 0.010). Local efficiency differences were marginal (AUC = -0.017, P = 0.052). That is, cases exhibited lower network segregation and higher integration, suggesting that adjacent nodes (i.e. brain regions) were less similar in thickness whereas spatially distant nodes were more similar.ConclusionStructural covariance network (SCN) differences in the brain appear to constitute an early marker of heavy alcohol use in three new data sets and, more generally, demonstrate the utility of SCN-derived metrics to detect brain-related psychopathology

Recalibrating single-study effect sizes using hierarchical Bayesian models.

INTRODUCTION: There are growing concerns about commonly inflated effect sizes in small neuroimaging studies, yet no study has addressed recalibrating effect size estimates for small samples. To tackle this issue, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian model to adjust the magnitude of single-study effect sizes while incorporating a tailored estimation of sampling variance. METHODS: We estimated the effect sizes of case-control differences on brain structural features between individuals who were dependent on alcohol, nicotine, cocaine, methamphetamine, or cannabis and non-dependent participants for 21 individual studies (Total cases: 903; Total controls: 996). Then, the study-specific effect sizes were modeled using a hierarchical Bayesian approach in which the parameters of the study-specific effect size distributions were sampled from a higher-order overarching distribution. The posterior distribution of the overarching and study-specific parameters was approximated using the Gibbs sampling method. RESULTS: The results showed shrinkage of the posterior distribution of the study-specific estimates toward the overarching estimates given the original effect sizes observed in individual studies. Differences between the original effect sizes (i.e., Cohens d) and the point estimate of the posterior distribution ranged from 0 to 0.97. The magnitude of adjustment was negatively correlated with the sample size (r = -0.27, p &lt; 0.001) and positively correlated with empirically estimated sampling variance (r = 0.40, p &lt; 0.001), suggesting studies with smaller samples and larger sampling variance tended to have greater adjustments. DISCUSSION: Our findings demonstrate the utility of the hierarchical Bayesian model in recalibrating single-study effect sizes using information from similar studies. This suggests that Bayesian utilization of existing knowledge can be an effective alternative approach to improve the effect size estimation in individual studies, particularly for those with smaller samples

Cortical profiles of numerous psychiatric disorders and normal development share a common pattern

The neurobiological bases of the association between development and psychopathology remain poorly understood. Here, we identify a shared spatial pattern of cortical thickness (CT) in normative development and several psychiatric and neurological disorders. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to CT of 68 regions in the Desikan-Killiany atlas derived from three large-scale datasets comprising a total of 41,075 neurotypical participants. PCA produced a spatially broad first principal component (PC1) that was reproducible across datasets. Then PC1 derived from healthy adult participants was compared to the pattern of CT differences associated with psychiatric and neurological disorders comprising a total of 14,886 cases and 20,962 controls from seven ENIGMA disease-related working groups, normative maturation and aging comprising a total of 17,697 scans from the ABCD Study® and the IMAGEN developmental study, and 17,075 participants from the ENIGMA Lifespan working group, as well as gene expression maps from the Allen Human Brain Atlas. Results revealed substantial spatial correspondences between PC1 and widespread lower CT observed in numerous psychiatric disorders. Moreover, the PC1 pattern was also correlated with the spatial pattern of normative maturation and aging. The transcriptional analysis identified a set of genes including KCNA2, KCNS1 and KCNS2 with expression patterns closely related to the spatial pattern of PC1. The gene category enrichment analysis indicated that the transcriptional correlations of PC1 were enriched to multiple gene ontology categories and were specifically over-represented starting at late childhood, coinciding with the onset of significant cortical maturation and emergence of psychopathology during the prepubertal-to-pubertal transition. Collectively, the present study reports a reproducible latent pattern of CT that captures interregional profiles of cortical changes in both normative brain maturation and a spectrum of psychiatric disorders. The pubertal timing of the expression of PC1-related genes implicates disrupted neurodevelopment in the pathogenesis of the spectrum of psychiatric diseases emerging during adolescence