An econometric study of forecasting French foreign exchange rates

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to study possible diversity of exchange rate models, by applying both parametric and nonparametric techniques, and examines said models’ collective predictive performance. Design/Methodology/Approach: We shall choose the forecasting predictor with the smallest Root Mean Square Forecast Error (RMSE). The better type of exchange rate model is in the Autoregressive model’s equation, according to the empirical evidence, although none of this data yields an optimal forecast. Findings: In our conclusion, the error correction versions of these exchange rate models will be adjusted so that credible long-run elasticities can be imposed on each model’s fundamental variables.peer-reviewe

Investigation and determination of the geothermal parameters of the ground in Cyprus for the exploitation of geothermal energy and the impact of the results in the design of the geothermal systems

The Energy Service of the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism has the overall responsibility for Energy matters in Cyprus and specifically for preparing and implementing programmes for energy conservation, the promotion of renewable energy sources (RES) and the development of technologies for the utilization of RES. The Government of Cyprus being aware of the benefits of geothermal energy and in order to increase the share of energy from renewable sources consumed in heating and cooling in 2020, promotes the geothermal energy systems through a Scheme that provides financial incentives for the utilization of RES for heating and cooling. However, the lack of valid data for the ground thermal properties in Cyprus was one of the main obstacles for the design of efficient geothermal systems, the implementation of the Schemes in the field of geothermal energy and the calculation of the share of energy from renewable sources for heating and cooling according to the methodology defined by the E.U in the directive 2009/28/EC. In an effort to identify suitable energy efficient systems for heating and cooling of buildings and the correct calculations of their contribution to the national targets, the Energy Service participated in a project founded by the Research Promotion Foundation of Cyprus to investigate and determine the geothermal parameters of the ground of Cyprus at six representative sites in Cyprus, for use in the design of ground heat exchanger applications and ground thermal storage. The paper presents the importance of the Isothermal map that helps consultants to design efficiently geothermal energy systems, calculate effectively heat losses of buildings to the ground and design the thermal energy storage equipment. The importance’s of the results are analyzed by national authorities’ experts’ point of view for evaluating geothermal applications bridging in this way the gap between technical output and commercial reality

Measurement and analysis of thermal properties of rocks for the compilation of geothermal maps of Cyprus

Previous studies in Cyprus classified the island in the category of low enthalpy with high potentials in the usage of geothermal energy for space air-conditioning. Due to the little existing information about the underground thermal properties, an extended geological sampling has been carried out on the island. Measurements of thermal properties have been performed in the laboratory at room temperature for all the collected samples both in their dry and water-saturated state. The impact on thermal conductivity of water in samples, the mineralogical composition, and the geological age of samples have been the objectives of the current study.Laboratory results of each rock type in Cyprus are found within certain ranges for each thermo-physical property as follows. Thermal conductivity values for dry rock samples vary between 0.4 and 4.2 W m-1 K-1, thermal diffusivity values range between 0.3 and 1.9 × 10-6 m2 s-1 and specific heat capacity values range from 0.5 to 1.5 J K-1 kg-1. Results also show that thermal conductivity and thermal diffusivity under moisture conditions increase for most of the lythotypes. The notable exception is Gypsum (Kalavaso Formation), which exhibits higher thermal response under dry conditions.Measured thermal properties also present a difference between thermal properties of the lithologies of the Troodos Ophiolite and the Circum Troodos Sedimentary Succession in Cyprus. Mean values of thermal conductivity and thermal diffusivity for dry samples and water-saturated samples have higher values for the lithologies of the Troodos Ophiolite than measured values for the lithologies of the Circum Troodos Sedimentary Succession, mostly due to their mineralogical composition.Moreover, the geological age of a lithology has been shown to affect its thermal response. Thermal conductivity of reef limestone and calcarenite rocks increases with the geological age of the lithology.In order to understand and visualize all measured data the Thermal Conductivity and the Thermal Diffusivity Maps of Cyprus have been compiled with the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS) to be available to engineers as a powerful tool for use in the design of thermal engineering systems. From the obtained maps Troodos Ophiolite can be visualized as a separate part by having the highest values

Artificial Neural Networks for the Generation of Geothermal Maps of Ground Temperature at Various Depths by Considering Land Configuration

Presented at 6th Dubrovnik Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy Water and Environmental Systems, 25 - 29 September, Dubrovnik, CroatiaIn this paper a neural network is used for the generation of geothermal maps (contours) of temperature at three depths (20, 50 and 100 m) in Cyprus. Archived data of temperature recorded at 41 boreholes is used for training a suitable artificial neural network. The complete data was randomly divided into a training and validation dataset. The neural network is used to predict the temperature at any arbitrary location on the island, which can subsequently be used for drawing geothermal maps. For this purpose, a multiple hidden layer feedforward architecture was chosen after testing a number of architectures. The correlation coefficient obtained between the predicted and training dataset is 0.9889, which is very close to 1, indicating an accurate mapping of the data. The validation of the network was performed using the validation (unknown) dataset. The correlation coefficient for the unknown cases was 0.9253. The prediction error for the temperature was confined to less than 1.74 °C, which is considered quite adequate. In order to broaden the database, the patterns used for the validation of the technique were embedded into the training dataset and a new training of the network was performed. The architecture and the other parameters of the network were kept the same as for the validation phase. The correlation coefficient value for this case was equal to 0.9918. A 10 × 10 km grid is then drawn over a detailed topographic map of Cyprus and the various input parameters were recorded for each grid-point. This information was then supplied to the trained network and by doing so, temperature at the same depths as above was predicted at each grid-point. The x and y coordinates and the estimated temperatures at the three depths for both the original boreholes and at the grid-points were then used as input to a specialized contour drawing software in order to draw the geothermal maps. These maps will be a helpful tool for engineers wanting to apply geothermal heat in Cypru

Fluvial stacking due to plate collision and uplift during the Early Pleistocene in Cyprus

Southern Cyprus is situated within a mosaic terrane that has been fragmented between the northward drifting African and Arabian plates and the Eurasian plate. Enormous uplift of the earth mantle in the Tróodos Mountains is explained by two models. The subduction model explains subduction along the Cyprean arc to be the driving force for uplift whereas after the restraining bend model westward squeezing of Cyprus along strike-slip faulting is responsible for the enormous uplift at restraining bends. Since its emergence as an island in early Miocene times, landscape formation on Cyprus has been strongly controlled by this uplift. Until the Plio-Pleistocene, a strait belt separated the southern unroofed ophiolitic core region-the Tróodos Mountains-from the folded Kyrenia range to the north. This former sea basin, nowadays the Mesaoría Basin, is linked with the Tróodos Mountains by a dissected glacis with a thick cover of river deposits. The highest and oldest river deposits (Apalós Formation) were studied in the Vlokkariá hill southwest of Lefkosía. The 45.5 m thick Apalós Formation of Early Pleistocene age exhibits 24 sedimentary units (Fluviatile Series). Their magnetostratigraphical characters align with the Matuyama chron including the Olduvai and Jaramillo subchrons thus comprising about 1.15 Ma within the Early Pleistocene. This fluvial stack indicates a very flat and deeply lying river environment flowing from a slowly uplifting Tróodos hinterland. It happened during the end of Early Pleistocene when the enhanced Tróodos uplift started the dissection of the stacked river plain

Barriers, facilitators, and interventions for medication adherence across chronic conditions with the highest non-adherence rates: a scoping review with recommendations for intervention development

Medication non-adherence (MNA) constitutes a complex health problem contributing to increased economic burden and poor health outcomes. The Medication Adherence Model (MAM) supports that numerous processes are involved in medication adherence (MA). Based on the MAM and guidelines of the World Health Organization (WHO), this scoping review aimed to identify the barriers and facilitators associated with MA, and the behavioral health interventions and techniques among chronic conditions presenting with high non-adherence rates (asthma, cancer, diabetes, epilepsy, HIV/AIDS, and hypertension). PubMed, PsycINFO, and Scopus databases were screened, and 243 studies were included. A mixed methods approach was used to collate the evidence and interpret findings. The most commonly reported barriers to MA across conditions were younger age, low education, low income, high medication cost, side effects, patient beliefs/perceptions, comorbidities, and poor patient-provider communication. Additionally, digitally delivered interventions including components such as medication and condition education, motivational interviewing (MI), and reinforcement and motivational messages led to improvements in MA. This review highlights the importance of administrating multicomponent interventions digitally and personalized to the patients' individual needs and characteristics, responding to the adherence barriers faced. This is the first review examining and synthesizing evidence on barriers and facilitators to MA and behavioral health interventions used for improving MA across chronic conditions with the highest non-adherence rates and providing recommendations to researchers and clinicians. Stakeholders are called to explore methods overcoming barriers identified and developing effective multicomponent interventions that can reduce the high rates of MNA

Spatial genetic structure and Ovis haplogroup as a tool for an adaptive conservation management of the endangered Cyprus mouflon

The mouflon (Ovis gmelini ophion) is the largest wild terrestrial mammal of Cyprus. Regarded as the local flagshi species, its population range is limited to the mountainous Paphos Forest and adjacent areas including part of Troodos National Forest Park (> 700 Km2). This species, protected by both national and international legislation, is classified as Endangered by the IUCN, with livestock intrusion, poaching and habitat loss as the main threatening factors. We determined the spatial genetic structure by investigating sexes separately and shed further light on the Cyprus mouflon placement among Ovis haplogroups (HGs) to enforce its protection within an adaptive conservation framework. We genotyped 108 samples collected across the entire species’ range at both14 loci of the microsatellite DNA and the mitochondrial DNA Control Region (CR). Microsatellite genotyping indicated that the wild population retained low genetic variability, which, however, was not associated with a level of inbreeding raising particular concern (FIS = 0.12). An overall weak spatial genetic structure was disclosed, consistently with the limited extension of the mouflon range, the lack of significant physical barriers to dispersal and the intense gene flow mostly occurring along a northeast-southwest axis across the forest. Nevertheless, evidences of structure were found for females in compliance with their philopatric behaviour. The disclosure of unique features compared to Mediterranean and Near East conspecifics, such as the occurrence of a six-fold 76 bp-long repeated motif in the Cyprus mouflon CR, along with the outcome of a phylogenetic reconstruction (based on a far higher number of Ovis GenBank records and Cyprus haplotypes than in previous studies) inspired the proposal of a new haplogroup (HGC2) which included the Anatolian mouflon (O. g. ana tolica, former HGX) as sister taxon. While both high habitat heterogeneity and low human disturbance were the main drivers in determining the overall spatial structure, future conservation efforts to preserve this valuable genetic resource should focus on avoiding possible introgressive hybridisation with co-grazing livestock to the edge of its range