An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Some Empirical Evidence (1971-2001)

The relationship between exports and economic growth has been analysed by a number of recent empirical studies. This paper re-examines the sources of growth for the period 1971-2001 for India. It builds upon Feder´s model to investigate empirically the relationship between export growth and GDP growth (the export led growth hypothesis), using recent data from the Reserve Bank of India, and by focusing on GDP growth and GDP growth net of exports. We investigate the following hypotheses: i) whether exports and GDP are cointegrated using both the Engle-Granger and the Johansen approach, ii) whether export growth Granger causes GDP growth, iii) and whether export growth Granger causes investment. Finally, a VAR is constructed and impulse response functions (IRFs) are employed to investigate the effects of macroeconomic shocks

An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Some Empirical Evidence (1971-2001)

The relationship between exports and economic growth has been analysed by a number of recent empirical studies. This paper re-examines the sources of growth for the period 1971-2001 for India. It builds upon Feder´s model to investigate empirically the relationship between export growth and GDP growth (the export led growth hypothesis), using recent data from the Reserve Bank of India, and by focusing on GDP growth and GDP growth net of exports. We investigate the following hypotheses: i) whether exports and GDP are cointegrated using both the Engle-Granger and the Johansen approach, ii) whether export growth Granger causes GDP growth, iii) and whether export growth Granger causes investment. Finally, a VAR is constructed and impulse response functions (IRFs) are employed to investigate the effects of macroeconomic shocks

On Economic Policy Uncertainty and Sovereign Credit Rating Decisions: Panel Quantile Evidence for the Eurozone

We employ a panel quantile framework that quantifies the relative importance of quantitative and qualitative factors across the conditional distribution of sovereign credit ratings in the Eurozone area. We find that regulatory quality and competitiveness have a stronger impact for low rated countries whereas GDP per capita is a major driver of high rated countries. A reduction in the current account deficit leads to a rating or outlook upgrade for low rated countries. Economic policy uncertainty impacts negatively on credit ratings across the conditional distribution; however, the impact is stronger for the lower rated countries. In other words, the creditworthiness of low rated countries takes a much bigger ‘hit’ than that of high rated countries when European policy uncertainty is on the rise

Tweets, Google Trends and Sovereign Spreads in the GIIPS

We examine whether the information contained in social media (Twitter, Facebook & Google Blogs) and web search intensity (Google) influences financial markets. Using a multivariate system and focussing on Eurozone’s peripheral countries, the GIIPS (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) as well as two of Eurozone’s core countries (France and the Nethelands), we show that social media discussion and search-related queries for the Greek debt crisis provide significant short-run information primarily for the Greek-German and Irish-German government bond yield differential even when other financial control variables (international risk, Eurozone’s risk, default risk and liquidity risk) are accounted for, and to a much lesser extent for Portuguese, Italian and Spanish sovereign yield differentials. Social media discussion and Google search-related queries for the Greek debt crisis do not affect spreads in France and the Netherlands