When the Future is not what it used to be: Lessons from the Western European Experience to Forecasting Education and Training in Transition Economies

In an era of rapid technological change, information exchange, and emergence of knowledge-intensive industries it is critical to be able to identify the future skill needs of the labour market. Growing unemployment in EU member states and pre-accession countries in Eastern Europe combined with technological changes which make the skills of a significant number of workers obsolescent each year demand adequate knowledge of medium- and long-term demand for specific skills. Some EU members states have developed employment forecasting methods to identify future skill requirements which take account of the sectoral, occupational, and educational and training factors which influence supply and demand in the labour market for skills. A number of countries in Eastern Europe which are preparing to join the EU are interested in developing employment forecasting models that would provide them with similar information relating to skills. Taking account of the requirements of the Single European Market and increasing international mobility, it is desirable that the pre-accession countries should develop models which, if possible, are comparable with existing methods of forecasting training and qualification needs in existing member states of the EU. This task requires regular medium-term forecasts which will extend the time horizon of decision makers beyond the current economic cycle, be applicable to the whole economy, allow speedy adjustment to changing circumstances, and which will take account of relevant factors such as investment plans, output and labour productivity forecasts, and technological change. The objective of this paper is to provide a summary of existing methods and data sets used to forecast education and training needs in four members of the European Union, in order to motivate similar work in three pre-accession countries. We first provide a detailed account of the different approaches to forecast education and training needs in France, Germany, Ireland and The Netherlands. For each of these countries, we consider the labour market data on which employment forecasts are based and the current methods in use, examine how data reliability and accuracy of forecasts are dealt with, and discuss the dissemination and usage of forecast information generated by those systems. We then look at the same range of issues for three pre-accession Central European countries (Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia.) The paper concludes by suggesting a number of needed actions in preparation for developing an approach to forecasting education and training needs in the three pre-accession countries.employment forecasting, education and training needs forecasting, labor market, transition

Using local ecological knowledge to assess the status of the Critically Endangered Chinese giant salamander Andrias davidianus in Guizhou Province, China

The Critically Endangered Chinese giant salamander Andrias davidianus, the world's largest amphibian, is severely threatened by unsustainable exploitation of wild individuals. However, field data with which to assess the salamander's status, population trends, or exploitation across its geographical range are limited, and recent field surveys using standard ecological field techniques have typically failed to detect wild individuals. We conducted community-based fieldwork in three national nature reserves (Fanjingshan, Leigongshan and Mayanghe) in Guizhou Province, China, to assess whether local ecological knowledge constitutes a useful tool for salamander conservation. We collected a sample of dated salamander sighting records and associated data from these reserves for comparative assessment of the relative status of salamander populations across the region. Although Fanjingshan and Leigongshan are still priority sites for salamander conservation, few recent sightings were recorded in either reserve, and respondents considered that salamanders had declined locally at both reserves. The species may already be functionally extinct at Mayanghe. Although respondent data on threats to salamanders in Guizhou are more difficult to interpret, overharvesting was the most commonly suggested explanation for salamander declines, and it is likely that the growing salamander farming industry is the primary driver of salamander extraction from Guizhou's reserves. Questionnaire-based surveys can collect novel quantitative data that provide unique insights into the local status of salamander populations, and we advocate wide-scale incorporation of this research approach into future salamander field programmes

Self-rated health in middle-aged and elderly Chinese : distribution, determinants and associations with cardio-metabolic risk factors

Background: Self-rated health (SRH) has been demonstrated to be an accurate reflection of a person's health and a valid predictor of incident mortality and chronic morbidity. We aimed to evaluate the distribution and factors associated with SRH and its association with biomarkers of cardio-metabolic diseases among middle-aged and elderly Chinese. Methods: Survey of 1,458 men and 1,831 women aged 50 to 70 years, conducted in one urban and two rural areas of Beijing and Shanghai in 2005. SRH status was measured and categorized as good (very good and good) vs. not good (fair, poor and very poor). Determinants of SRH and associations with biomarkers of cardio-metabolic diseases were evaluated using logistic regression. Results: Thirty two percent of participants reported good SRH. Males and rural residents tended to report good SRH. After adjusting for potential confounders, residence, physical activity, employment status, sleep quality and presence of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and depression were the main determinants of SRH. Those free from cardiovascular disease (OR 3.68; 95%CI 2.39; 5.66), rural residents (OR 1.89; 95% CI 1.47; 2.43), non-depressed participants (OR 2.50; 95% CI 1.67; 3.73) and those with good sleep quality (OR 2.95; 95% CI 2.22; 3.91) had almost twice or over the chance of reporting good SRH compared to their counterparts. There were significant associations -and trend- between SRH and levels of inflammatory markers, insulin levels and insulin resistance. Conclusion: Only one third of middle-aged and elderly Chinese assessed their health status as good or very good. Although further longitudinal studies are required to confirm our findings, interventions targeting social inequalities, lifestyle patterns might not only contribute to prevent chronic morbidity but as well to improve populations' perceived health

Inhibition of Human Hepatic Bile Acid Transporters by Tolvaptan and Metabolites: Contributing Factors to Drug-Induced Liver Injury?

Tolvaptan is a vasopressin

Xenopus staufen2 is required for anterior endodermal organ formation

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in genesis 50 (2012): 251-259, doi:10.1002/dvg.22000.Defining the regulatory molecular networks involved in patterning the developing anterior endoderm is essential to understanding how the pancreas, liver, stomach and duodenum are discretely specified from each other. In this study, we analyzed the expression and function of the double-stranded RNA-binding protein Staufen2 in Xenopus laevis endoderm. We found that staufen2 was broadly expressed within the developing endoderm beginning at gastrulation becoming localized to the anterior endoderm at later stages. Through morpholino-mediated knockdown, we demonstrate that Staufen2 function is required for proper formation of the stomach, liver and pancreas. We define that its function is required during gastrulation for proper patterning of the dorsal-ventral axis and that it acts to regulate expression of BMP signaling components.This work was supported by grants from the National Institutes of Health (DK077197) to M.E.H. and from the Canadian Institute of Health Research (Frederick Banting and Charles Best Canada Graduate Scholarships - Doctoral Awards) to C.K.B

Hepatocellular Disposition and Transporter Interactions with Tolvaptan and Metabolites in Sandwich-Cultured Human Hepatocytes

Tolvaptan is a selective V2-receptor antagonist primarily metabolized by CYP 3A. The present study investigated the hepatocellular disposition of tolvaptan and the generated tolvaptan metabolites, DM-4103 and DM-4107, as well as the potential for drug-drug interactions (DDIs) with metabolic and transport proteins in sandwich-cultured human hepatocytes (SCHH). Tolvaptan was incubated with SCHH and quantified by liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Pioglitazone, verapamil, MK-571, and elacridar were used as inhibitors to investigate mechanisms of transport and metabolism of tolvaptan and metabolites. Taurocholate (TCA), pravastatin, digoxin, and metformin were used as transporter probes to investigate which transport proteins were inhibited by tolvaptan and metabolites. Cellular accumulation of tolvaptan (0.15–50 μM), DM-4103, and DM-4107 in SCHH was concentration-dependent. Tolvaptan accumulation (15 μM) in SCHH was not altered markedly by 50 μM pioglitazone, verapamil, MK-571, or 10 μM elacridar. Coincubation of tolvaptan with pioglitazone, verapamil, MK-571, and elacridar reduced DM-4107 accumulation by 45.6, 79.8, 94.5, and 23.0%, respectively, relative to control. Coincubation with increasing tolvaptan concentrations (0.15–50 μM) decreased TCA (2.5 μM) cell+bile accumulation and the TCA biliary excretion index (BEI; from 76% to 51%), consistent with inhibition of the bile salt export pump (BSEP). Tolvaptan (15 μM) had no effect on the cellular accumulation of 2.5 μM pravastatin or metformin. Digoxin cellular accumulation increased, and the BEI of digoxin decreased from 23.9 to 8.1% in the presence of 15 μM tolvaptan, consistent with inhibition of P-glycoprotein. In summary, SCHH studies revealed potential metabolic- and transporter-mediated DDIs involving tolvaptan and metabolites

Alisertib, an Aurora kinase A inhibitor, induces apoptosis and autophagy but inhibits epithelial to mesenchymal transition in human epithelial ovarian cancer cells.

Ovarian cancer is a leading killer of women, and no cure for advanced ovarian cancer is available. Alisertib (ALS), a selective Aurora kinase A (AURKA) inhibitor, has shown potent anticancer effects, and is under clinical investigation for the treatment of advanced solid tumor and hematologic malignancies. However, the role of ALS in the treatment of ovarian cancer remains unclear. This study investigated the effects of ALS on cell growth, apoptosis, autophagy, and epithelial to mesenchymal transition (EMT), and the underlying mechanisms in human epithelial ovarian cancer SKOV3 and OVCAR4 cells. Our docking study showed that ALS, MLN8054, and VX-680 preferentially bound to AURKA over AURKB via hydrogen bond formation, charge interaction, and π-π stacking. ALS had potent growth-inhibitory, proapoptotic, proautophagic, and EMT-inhibitory effects on SKOV3 and OVCAR4 cells. ALS arrested SKOV3 and OVCAR4 cells in G2/M phase and induced mitochondria-mediated apoptosis and autophagy in both SKOV3 and OVCAR4 cell lines in a concentration-dependent manner. ALS suppressed phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase/protein kinase B (Akt)/mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) and p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase pathways but activated 5\u27-AMP-dependent kinase, as indicated by their altered phosphorylation, contributing to the proautophagic activity of ALS. Modulation of autophagy altered basal and ALS-induced apoptosis in SKOV3 and OVCAR4 cells. Further, ALS suppressed the EMT-like phenotype in both cell lines by restoring the balance between E-cadherin and N-cadherin. ALS downregulated sirtuin 1 and pre-B cell colony enhancing factor (PBEF/visfatin) expression levels and inhibited phosphorylation of AURKA in both cell lines. These findings indicate that ALS blocks the cell cycle by G2/M phase arrest and promotes cellular apoptosis and autophagy, but inhibits EMT via phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase/Akt/mTOR-mediated and sirtuin 1-mediated pathways in human epithelial ovarian cancer cells. Further studies are warranted to validate the efficacy and safety of ALS in the treatment of ovarian cancer

On the Use of Quantum Algebras in Rotation-Vibration Spectroscopy

A two-parameter deformation of the Lie algebra u$_2$ is used, in conjunction with the rotor system and the oscillator system, to generate a model for rotation-vibration spectroscopy of molecules and nuclei.Comment: 10 pages, Latex File, published in Modern Group Theoretical Methods in Physics, J. Bertrand et al. (eds.), Kluwer Academic Publishers (1995), 27-3

Using biomarkers to predict TB treatment duration (Predict TB): a prospective, randomized, noninferiority, treatment shortening clinical trial

Background : By the early 1980s, tuberculosis treatment was shortened from 24 to 6 months, maintaining relapse rates of 1-2%. Subsequent trials attempting shorter durations have failed, with 4-month arms consistently having relapse rates of 15-20%. One trial shortened treatment only among those without baseline cavity on chest x-ray and whose month 2 sputum culture converted to negative. The 4-month arm relapse rate decreased to 7% but was still significantly worse than the 6-month arm (1.6%, P<0.01).  We hypothesize that PET/CT characteristics at baseline, PET/CT changes at one month, and markers of residual bacterial load will identify patients with tuberculosis who can be cured with 4 months (16 weeks) of standard treatment.Methods: This is a prospective, multicenter, randomized, phase 2b, noninferiority clinical trial of pulmonary tuberculosis participants. Those eligible start standard of care treatment. PET/CT scans are done at weeks 0, 4, and 16 or 24. Participants who do not meet early treatment completion criteria (baseline radiologic severity, radiologic response at one month, and GeneXpert-detectable bacilli at four months) are placed in Arm A (24 weeks of standard therapy). Those who meet the early treatment completion criteria are randomized at week 16 to continue treatment to week 24 (Arm B) or complete treatment at week 16 (Arm C). The primary endpoint compares the treatment success rate at 18 months between Arms B and C.Discussion: Multiple biomarkers have been assessed to predict TB treatment outcomes. This study uses PET/CT scans and GeneXpert (Xpert) cycle threshold to risk stratify participants. PET/CT scans are not applicable to global public health but could be used in clinical trials to stratify participants and possibly become a surrogate endpoint. If the Predict TB trial is successful, other immunological biomarkers or transcriptional signatures that correlate with treatment outcome may be identified. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02821832

On-demand semiconductor single-photon source with near-unity indistinguishability

Single photon sources based on semiconductor quantum dots offer distinct advantages for quantum information, including a scalable solid-state platform, ultrabrightness, and interconnectivity with matter qubits. A key prerequisite for their use in optical quantum computing and solid-state networks is a high level of efficiency and indistinguishability. Pulsed resonance fluorescence (RF) has been anticipated as the optimum condition for the deterministic generation of high-quality photons with vanishing effects of dephasing. Here, we generate pulsed RF single photons on demand from a single, microcavity-embedded quantum dot under s-shell excitation with 3-ps laser pulses. The pi-pulse excited RF photons have less than 0.3% background contributions and a vanishing two-photon emission probability. Non-postselective Hong-Ou-Mandel interference between two successively emitted photons is observed with a visibility of 0.97(2), comparable to trapped atoms and ions. Two single photons are further used to implement a high-fidelity quantum controlled-NOT gate.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figure