Model parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM modeling good research practices task force working group - 6

A model’s purpose is to inform medical decisions and health care resource allocation. Modelers employ quantitative methods to structure the clinical, epidemiological, and economic evidence base and gain qualitative insight to assist decision makers in making better decisions. From a policy perspective, the value of a model-based analysis lies not simply in its ability to generate a precise point estimate for a specific outcome but also in the systematic examination and responsible reporting of uncertainty surrounding this outcome and the ultimate decision being addressed. Different concepts relating to uncertainty in decision modeling are explored. Stochastic (first-order) uncertainty is distinguished from both parameter (second-order) uncertainty and from heterogeneity, with structural uncertainty relating to the model itself forming another level of uncertainty to consider. The article argues that the estimation of point estimates and uncertainty in parameters is part of a single process and explores the link between parameter uncertainty through to decision uncertainty and the relationship to value-of-information analysis. The article also makes extensive recommendations around the reporting of uncertainty, both in terms of deterministic sensitivity analysis techniques and probabilistic methods. Expected value of perfect information is argued to be the most appropriate presentational technique, alongside cost-effectiveness acceptability curves, for representing decision uncertainty from probabilistic analysis

Longitudinal and transverse noise in a moving Vortex Lattice

We have studied the longitudinal and the transverse velocity fluctuations of a moving vortex lattice (VL) driven by a transport current. They exhibit both the same broad spectrum and the same order of magnitude. These two components are insensitive to the velocity and to a small bulk perturbation. This means that no bulk averaging over the disorder and no VL crystallization are observed. This is consistently explained referring to a previously proposed noisy flow of surface current whose elementary fluctuator is measured isotropic.Comment: accepted for publication in Phys Rev

Experimental study of the correlation length of critical-current fluctuations in the presence of surface disorder: Probing vortex long-range interactions

We report on critical currents and voltage noise measurements in Niobium strips in the superconducting state, in the presence of a bulk vortex lattice ($B < B_{C2}$) and in the surface superconducting state ($B_{c2}< B < B_{C3}$). For homogeneous surfaces, the correlation length of the current fluctuations can be associated with the electromagnetic skin depth of vortex superficial instabilities. The modification of the surface state by means of low energy irradiation induces a strong modification of the critical current and of the noise. The appearance of a corner frequency in the spectral domain can be linked with the low wave-vectors of the artificial corrugation. Since this latter occurs only for $B < B_{C2}$, we propose that the long-range interactions allow the correlation length to extend up to values imposed by the surface topography.Comment: accepted for publication in PR

Dynamic Creation and Annihilation of Metastable Vortex Phase as a Source of Excess Noise

The large increase in voltage noise, commonly observed in the vicinity of the peak-effect in superconductors, is ascribed to a novel noise mechanism. A strongly pinned metastable disordered vortex phase, which is randomly generated at the edges and annealed into ordered phase in the bulk, causes large fluctuations in the integrated critical current of the sample. The excess noise due to this dynamic admixture of two distinct phases is found to display pronounced reentrant behavior. In the Corbino geometry the injection of the metastable phase is prevented and, accordingly, the excess noise disappearsComment: 5 pages 3 figures. Accepted for publication in Europhysics letter

Edge and Bulk Transport in the Mixed State of a Type-II Superconductor

By comparing the voltage-current (V-I) curves obtained before and after cutting a sample of 2H-NbSe2, we separate the bulk and edge contributions to the transport current at various dissipation levels and derive their respective V- I curves and critical currents. We find that the edge contribution is thermally activated across a current dependent surface barrier. By contrast the bulk V-I curves are linear, as expected from the free flux flow model. The relative importance of bulk and edge contributions is found to depend on dissipation level and sample dimensions. We further show that the peak effect is a sharp bulk phenomenon and that it is broadened by the edge contribution

V-I characteristics in the vicinity of order-disorder transition in vortex matter

The shape of the V-I characteristics leading to a peak in the differential resistance r_d=dV/dI in the vicinity of the order-disorder transition in NbSe2 is investigated. r_d is large when measured by dc current. However, for a small Iac on a dc bias r_d decreases rapidly with frequency, even at a few Hz, and displays a large out-of-phase signal. In contrast, the ac response increases with frequency in the absence of dc bias. These surprisingly opposite phenomena and the peak in r_d are shown to result from a dynamic coexistence of two vortex matter phases rather than from the commonly assumed plastic depinning.Comment: 12 pages 4 figures. Accepted for publication in PRB rapi

Evolution of the fishtail-effect in pure and Ag-doped MG-YBCO

We report on magnetic measurements carried out in a textured YBa$_2$Cu$_3$O$_{7-\delta}$ and YBa$_2$(Cu$_{1-x}$Ag$_x$)$_3$O$_{7-\delta}$ (at $x \approx$ 0.02) crystals. The so-called fishtail-effect (FE) or second magnetization peak has been observed in a wide temperature range 0.4~$<T/T_c<$~0.8 for $\textbf{H}\parallel c$. The origin of the FE arises for the competition between surface barrier and bulk pinning. This is confirmed in a non-monotonically behavior of the relaxation rate $R$. The value $H_{max}$ for Ag-doped crystals is larger than for the pure one due to the presence of additional pinning centers, above all on silver atoms.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figure

Abrupt Transition between Thermally-Activated Relaxation and Quantum Tunneling in a Molecular Magnet

We report Hall sensor measurements of the magnetic relaxation of Mn$_{12}$ acetate as a function of magnetic field applied along the easy axis of magnetization. Data taken at a series of closely-spaced temperatures between 0.24 K and 1.4 K provide strong new evidence for an abrupt ``first-order'' transition between thermally-assisted relaxation and magnetic decay via quantum tunneling.Comment: 4 pages, including 7 figure

Why pinning by surface irregularities can explain the peak effect in transport properties and neutron diffraction results in NbSe2 and Bi-2212 crystals?

The existence of a peak effect in transport properties (a maximum of the critical current as function of magnetic field) is a well-known but still intriguing feature of type II superconductors such as NbSe2 and Bi-2212. Using a model of pinning by surface irregularities in anisotropic superconductors, we have developed a calculation of the critical current which allows estimating quantitatively the critical current in both the high critical current phase and in the low critical current phase. The only adjustable parameter of this model is the angle of the vortices at the surface. The agreement between the measurements and the model is really very impressive. In this framework, the anomalous dynamical properties close to the peak effect is due to co-existence of two different vortex states with different critical currents. Recent neutron diffraction data in NbSe2 crystals in presence of transport current support this point of view

Instabilities and disorder-driven first-order transition of the vortex lattice

Transport studies in a Corbino disk geometry suggest that the Bragg glass phase undergoes a first-order transition into a disordered solid. This transition shows a sharp reentrant behavior at low fields. In contrast, in the conventional strip configuration, the phase transition is obscured by the injection of the disordered vortices through the sample edges, which results in the commonly observed vortex instabilities and smearing of the peak effect in NbSe2 crystals. These features are found to be absent in the Corbino geometry, in which the circulating vortices do not cross the sample edges.Comment: 12 pages 3 figures. Accepted for publication in Physical Review Letter