Towards a pragmatic approach for dealing with uncertainties in water management practice

Management of water resources is afflicted with uncertainties. Nowadays it is facing more and new uncertainties since pace and dimension of changes (e.g. climatic, demographic) are accelerating and are likely to increase even more in the future. Hence it is crucial to find pragmatic ways to deal with these uncertainties in water management. So far, decision-making under uncertainty in water management is based on either intuition, heuristics and experience of water managers or on expert assessments all of which are only of limited use for water managers in practice. We argue for an analytical yet pragmatic approach to enable practitioners to deal with uncertainties in a more explicit and systematic way and allow for better informed decisions. Our approach is based on the concept of framing, referring to the different ways in which people make sense of the world and of the uncertainties. We applied and tested recently developed parameters that aim to shed light on the framing of uncertainty in two sub-basins of the Rhine. We present and discuss the results of a series of stakeholder interactions in the two basins aimed at developing strategies for improving dealing with uncertainties. The strategies are synthesized in a cross-checking list based on the uncertainty framing parameters as a hands-on tool for systematically identifying improvement options when dealing with uncertainty in water management practice. We conclude with suggestions for testing the developed check-list as a tool for decision aid in water management practice. Key words: water management, future uncertainties, framing of uncertainties, hands-on decision aid, tools for practice, robust strategies, social learnin

DYPHORA—a dynamic model for the rate of photosynthesis of algae

Experimental data obtained from different cultures of phytoplankton indicate that photosynthesis (P) depends on light intensity (I) in a dynamic way. Therefore, static P/I curves relating photosynthesis to the instantaneous light may not be adequate to describe the activity of algal cells in lakes or oceans where mixing can cause a complex pattern of light variation. The model DYPHORA (DYnamic model for the PHOtosynthetic Rate of Algae) describes the response of photosynthesis to light using two characteristic times, the response time to increasing light (τr), and the light inhibition decay time (τr). The model agrees well with available experiments if τr is chosen between 0.5 and 5 min, and τr, between 30 and 120 min. It explains the occurrence of the well-documented afternoon depression as well as the decrease of integrated long-term rates of photosynthesis with increasing light. Although the presented comparison of experimental data and model results cannot serve as a proof for DYPHORA in a strict sense, the structural relationship between P and I can nevertheless point out inadequacies in the common interpretation of static P/I relationships. The model can also serve as a tool to test hypotheses regarding the selective role of mixing in the competition between algal specie

How multilevel societal learning processes facilitate transformative change: A comparative case study analysis on flood management

Sustainable resources management requires a major transformation of existing resource governance and management systems. These have evolved over a long time under an unsustainable management paradigm, e.g., the transformation from the traditionally prevailing technocratic flood protection toward the holistic integrated flood management approach. We analyzed such transformative changes using three case studies in Europe with a long history of severe flooding: the Hungarian Tisza and the German and Dutch Rhine. A framework based on societal learning and on an evolutionary understanding of societal change was applied to identify drivers and barriers for change. Results confirmed the importance of informal learning and actor networks and their connection to formal policy processes. Enhancing a society's capacity to adapt is a long-term process that evolves over decades, and in this case, was punctuated by disastrous flood events that promoted windows of opportunity for change

Managing change toward adaptive water management through social learning

The management of water resources is currently undergoing a paradigm shift toward a more integrated and participatory management style. This paper highlights the need to fully take into account the complexity of the systems to be managed and to give more attention to uncertainties. Achieving this requires adaptive management approaches that can more generally be defined as systematic strategies for improving management policies and practices by learning from the outcomes of previous management actions. This paper describes how the principles of adaptive water management might improve the conceptual and methodological base for sustainable and integrated water management in an uncertain and complex world. Critical debate is structured around four questions: (1) What types of uncertainty need to be taken into account in water management? (2) How does adaptive management account for uncertainty? (3) What are the characteristics of adaptive management regimes? (4) What is the role of social learning in managing change? Major transformation processes are needed because, in many cases, the structural requirements, e.g., adaptive institutions and a flexible technical infrastructure, for adaptive management are not available. In conclusion, we itemize a number of research needs and summarize practical recommendations based on the current state of knowledge

Towards a relational concept of uncertainty: incorporating the human dimension

In this paper, we extend the conceptualization of uncertainties in natural resources management. Uncertainties come in different kinds, as it is apparent from the multiple classifications and typologies of uncertainties in the literature. Here, we re-contextualize uncertainty in a broader way - its role, meaning and relationship with knowing and acting persons - because it is from this relationship where problems and solutions emerge. We argue that uncertainties have a relational aspect that has to do with how decision makers relate, through their knowledge and actions, to the human-technology-environmental systems to be managed ¿ an aspect that is not fully taken into account in the current literature. Our aim in this paper is to include the human dimension more fully in the conceptualization of uncertainties by (1) adding ambiguity as an important kind of uncertainty, (2) re-conceptualizing uncertainty as relational, and (3) indicating some implications of this reconceptualized overview for strategies for dealing with uncertainty in water management

Climate change adaptation in European river basins

This paper contains an assessment and standardized comparative analysis of the current water management regimes in four case-studies in three European river basins: the Hungarian part of the Upper Tisza, the Ukrainian part of the Upper Tisza (also called Zacarpathian Tisza), Alentejo Region (including the Alqueva Reservoir) in the Lower Guadiana in Portugal, and Rivierenland in the Netherlands. The analysis comprises several regime elements considered to be important in adaptive and integrated water management: agency, awareness raising and education, type of governance and cooperation structures, information management and—exchange, policy development and—implementation, risk management, and finances and cost recovery. This comparative analysis has an explorative character intended to identify general patterns in adaptive and integrated water management and to determine its role in coping with the impacts of climate change on floods and droughts. The results show that there is a strong interdependence of the elements within a water management regime, and as such this interdependence is a stabilizing factor in current management regimes. For example, this research provides evidence that a lack of joint/participative knowledge is an important obstacle for cooperation, or vice versa. We argue that there is a two-way relationship between information management and collaboration. Moreover, this research suggests that bottom-up governance is not a straightforward solution to water management problems in large-scale, complex, multiple-use systems, such as river basins. Instead, all the regimes being analyzed are in a process of finding a balance between bottom-up and top–down governance. Finally, this research shows that in a basin where one type of extreme is dominant—like droughts in the Alentejo (Portugal) and floods in Rivierenland (Netherlands)—the potential impacts of other extremes are somehow ignored or not perceived with the urgency they might deserv