Modelling of errors in databases

A lot of time and energy are expended assembling national databases containing information about health care processes and outcomes. Unfortunately, given the complexity of the data gathering procedures involved, errors occur. This inevitably leads to problems when it comes to the analysis of data from such sources. Indeed, sometimes it is very much a matter of faith that summary statistics represent a true reflection of the facts. On the assumption that one knows the rates at which different forms of errors occur, mathematical modelling methods can be used to obtain estimates of the effects of such errors on the estimates that would be derived for summary statistics associated with an erroneous data base

s/alpha/Fe Abundance Ratios in Halo Field Stars: Is there a Globular Cluster Connection?

We try to understand the s- and r-process elements vs Ti/Fe plots derived by Jehin et al. (1999) for mildly metal-poor stars within the framework of the analytical semi-empirical models for these elements by Pagel & Tautvaisiene (1995, 1997). Jehin et al. distinguished two Pop II subgroups: IIa with alpha/Fe and s-elements/Fe increasing together, which they attribute to pure SNII activity, and IIb with constant alpha/Fe and a range in s/Fe which they attribute to a prolonged accretion phase in parent globular clusters. However, their sample consists mainly of thick-disk stars with only 4 clear halo members, of which two are `anomalous' in the sense defined by Nissen & Schuster (1997). Only the remaining two halo stars (and one in Nissen & Schuster's sample) depart significantly from Y/Ti (or s/alpha) ratios predicted by our model.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures To appear in: Roma-Trieste Workshop 1999: `The Chemical Evolution of the Milky Way: Stars vs Clusters', Vulcano Sept. 1999. F. Giovanelli & F. Matteucci (eds), Kluwer, Dordrech

Assessing electron heat flux dropouts as signatures of magnetic field line disconnection from the Sun

Suprathermal electrons focused along magnetic field lines, called the strahl, carry heat flux away from the Sun. Various factors can cause heat flux dropouts (HFDs), including times when the strahl almost vanishes. HFDs are a necessary but insufficient condition for detecting magnetic flux disconnected from the Sun. To quantitatively assess the fraction of HFDs which might be due to disconnected fields, we use four years of suprathermal electron data from the Wind spacecraft to perform a comprehensive survey of heat flux dropouts with durations greater than an hour. Eliminating periods within interplanetary coronal mass ejections or containing counterstreaming electrons, we find that only ∼10% of HFDs have signatures consistent with disconnected flux

Spatial Variations of Fundamental Constants

We show that observational limits on the possible time variation of constants of Nature are significantly affected by allowing for both space and time variation. Bekenstein's generalisation of Maxwell's equations to allow for cosmological variation of $alpha$ is investigated in a universe containing spherically symmetric inhomogeneities. The time variation of $alpha$ is determined by the local matter density and hence limits obtained in high-density geophysical enviroments are far more constraining than those obtained at high redshift. This new feature is expected to be a property of a wide class of theories for the variation of constants.Comment: 4 page

High heat flux actively cooled honeycomb sandwich structural panel for a hypersonic aircraft

The results of a program to design and fabricate an unshielded actively cooled structural panel for a hypersonic aircraft are presented. The design is an all-aluminum honeycomb sandwich with embedded cooling passages soldered to the inside of the outer moldline skin. The overall finding is that an actively cooled structure appears feasible for application on a hypersonic aircraft, but the fabrication process is complex and some material and manufacturing technology developments are required. Results from the program are summarized and supporting details are presented

A study of magnetic fluctuations and their anomalous scaling in the solar wind: the Ulysses fast-latitude scan

The solar wind is a highly turbulent and intermittent medium at frequencies between 10^-4 and 10^-1 Hz. Power spectra are used to look at fluctuations in the components of the magnetic field at high frequencies over a wide range of latitudes. Results show steady turbulence in the polar regions of the Sun and a more varied environment in the equatorial region. The magnetic field fluctuations exhibit anomalous scaling at high frequencies. Various models have been proposed in an attempt to better understand the scaling nature of such fluctuations in neutral fluid turbulence. We have used the Ulysses fast latitude scan data to perform a wide ranging comparison of three such models on the solar wind magnetic field data: the well-known P model, in both its Kolmogorov and Kraichnan forms, the lognormal cascade model and a model adapted from atmospheric physics, the G infinity model. They were tested by using fits to graphs of the structure function exponents g(q), by making a comparison with a non-linear measure of the deviation of g(q) from the non-intermittent straight line, and by using extended self similarity technique, over a large range of helio-latitudes. Tests of all three models indicated a high level of intermittency in the fast solar wind, and showed a varied structure in the slow wind, with regions of apparently little intermittency next to regions of high intermittency, implying that the slow wind has no uniform origin. All but one of the models performed well, with the lognormal and Kolmogorov P model performing the best over all the tests, indicating that inhomogeneous energy transfer in the cascade is a good description. The Kraichnan model performed relatively poorly, and the overall results show that the Kraichnan model of turbulence is not well supported over the frequency and distance ranges of our data set. The G infinity model fitted the results surprisingly well and showed that there may very well be important universal geometrical aspects of intermittency over many physical systems