Flow of magnetic repelling grains in a two-dimensional silo

During a typical silo discharge, the material flow rate is determined by the contact forces between the grains. Here, we report an original study concerning the discharge of a two-dimensional silo filled with repelling magnetic grains. This non-contact interaction leads to a different dynamics from the one observed with conventional granular materials. We found that, although the flow rate dependence on the aperture size follows roughly the power-law with an exponent $3/2$ found in non-repulsive systems, the density and velocity profiles during the discharge are totally different. New phenomena must be taken into account. Despite the absence of contacts, clogging and intermittence were also observed for apertures smaller than a critical size determined by the effective radius of the repulsive grains.Comment: 6 pages, 8 figure

Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model

International audienceUsing error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a one-dimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy is then refined by considering a classification of the seismic cycles of the model according to the presence, or not, of some factors related to the seismicity observed in the cycle. These factors, statistically speaking, enlarge or shorten the length of the cycles. The independent evaluation of the impact of these factors in the forecast process leads to two-dimensional numerical explorations. Finally, and as a third gradual step in the process of refinement, we combine these factors leading to a three-dimensional exploration. The final improvement in the loss function is about 8.5%

Using synchronization to improve earthquake forecasting in a cellular automaton model

A new forecasting strategy for stochastic systems is introduced. It is inspired by the concept of anticipated synchronization between pairs of chaotic oscillators, recently developed in the area of Dynamical Systems, and by the earthquake forecasting algorithms in which different pattern recognition functions are used for identifying seismic premonitory phenomena. In the new strategy, copies (clones) of the original system (the master) are defined, and they are driven using rules that tend to synchronize them with the master dynamics. The observation of definite patterns in the state of the clones is the signal for connecting an alarm in the original system that efficiently marks the impending occurrence of a catastrophic event. The power of this method is quantitatively illustrated by forecasting the occurrence of characteristic earthquakes in the so-called Minimalist Model.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Synchronization of Kuramoto Oscillators in Scale-Free Networks

In this work, we study the synchronization of coupled phase oscillators on the underlying topology of scale-free networks. In particular, we assume that each network's component is an oscillator and that each interacts with the others following the Kuramoto model. We then study the onset of global phase synchronization and fully characterize the system's dynamics. We also found that the resynchronization time of a perturbed node decays as a power law of its connectivity, providing a simple analytical explanation to this interesting behavior.Comment: 7 pages and 4 eps figures, the text has been slightly modified and new references have been included. Final version to appear in Europhysics Letter

Multiple and Precessing Collimated Outflows in the Planetary Nebula IC 4634

With its remarkable double-S shape, IC 4634 is an archetype of point-symmetric planetary nebulae (PN). In this paper, we present a detailed study of this PN using archival HST WFPC2 and ground-based narrow-band images to investigate its morphology, and long-slit spectroscopic observations to determine its kinematics and to derive its physical conditions and excitation. The data reveal new structural components, including a distant string of knots distributed along an arc-like feature 40"-60" from the center of the nebula, a skin of enhanced [O III]/H-alpha ratio enveloping the inner shell and the double-S feature, and a triple-shell structure. The spatio-kinematical study also finds an equatorial component of the main nebula that is kinematically independent from the bright inner S-shaped arc. We have investigated in detail the bow shock-like features in IC 4634 and found that their morphological, kinematical and emission properties are consistent with the interaction of a collimated outflow with surrounding material. Indeed, the morphology and kinematics of some of these features can be interpreted using a 3D numerical simulation of a collimated outflow precessing at a moderate, time-dependent velocity. Apparently, IC 4634 has experienced several episodes of point-symmetric ejections oriented at different directions with the outer S-shaped feature being related to an earlier point-symmetric ejection and the outermost arc-like string of knots being the relic of an even much earlier point-symmetric ejection. There is tantalizing evidence that the action of these collimated outflows has also taken part in the shaping of the innermost shell and inner S-shaped arc of IC 4634.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa

Parámetros reproductivos y distribución geográfica potencial de las áreas de anidación de Grus canadensis nesiotes (Aves, Gruidae) en Cuba: implicaciones para su conservación

Grus canadensis nesiotes (grulla cubana) es una subespecie endémica de Cuba que se encuentra en peligro de extinción. A pesar de estar directamente relacionada con los humedales, no existen estudios que contribuyan a su gestión y conservación. Por ello, se registraron parámetros reproductivos de la subespecie durante ocho temporadas reproductivas entre 2005 y 2015 en un humedal de Cuba; asimismo, se modeló y caracterizó la distribución geográfica potencial de las áreas de anidación, y se analizó su representación dentro de las áreas protegidas (AP). Para elaborar el modelo, se utilizaron el algoritmo de máxima entropía y variables de hábitat (100  m de tamaño de píxel). Para caracterizar la distribución potencial, se calculó la superficie ocupada por cada uso de suelo y tipo de vegetación dentro de dicha área de distribución. Se empleó el mismo procedimiento para calcular la superficie de la distribución que está protegida. Se localizaron 151  nidos en herbazales de ciénaga. Se trataba de plataformas simples sobre suelo húmedo o agua; los más grandes se observaron en 2006. El 70% de los nidos tuvieron dos huevos (1,7 huevos/nido) y el 63,5% fueron exitosos con 1,6 polluelos/nido exitoso. El hábitat potencial de anidación es estrecho (242 km2) y se localiza en el centro del humedal. De la distribución prevista, la superficie con alta probabilidad de presencia es del 13,8%. El 60% del herbazal de ciénaga de la zona del estudio estaba comprendido dentro de la distribución potencial, mientras que la proporción de cultivos (1,2%) y pastizales (2,1%) era baja. Las AP gestionadas solo protegen el 39,1% de la distribución potencial de los sitios de anidación y el 12% de las zonas con alta probabilidad. Se proponen tres sitios prioritarios para estudiar la anidación de la subespecie y hacer un seguimiento de la misma. Las medidas de conservación de la subespecie deberían considerar la distribución geográfica potencial de los sitios de anidación dentro y fuera de las AP.Grus canadensis nesiotes (grulla cubana) es una subespecie endémica de Cuba que se encuentra en peligro de extinción. A pesar de estar directamente relacionada con los humedales, no existen estudios que contribuyan a su gestión y conservación. Por ello, se registraron parámetros reproductivos de la subespecie durante ocho temporadas reproductivas entre 2005 y 2015 en un humedal de Cuba; asimismo, se modeló y caracterizó la distribución geográfica potencial de las áreas de anidación, y se analizó su representación dentro de las áreas protegidas (AP). Para elaborar el modelo, se utilizaron el algoritmo de máxima entropía y variables de hábitat (100  m de tamaño de píxel). Para caracterizar la distribución potencial, se calculó la superficie ocupada por cada uso de suelo y tipo de vegetación dentro de dicha área de distribución. Se empleó el mismo procedimiento para calcular la superficie de la distribución que está protegida. Se localizaron 151  nidos en herbazales de ciénaga. Se trataba de plataformas simples sobre suelo húmedo o agua; los más grandes se observaron en 2006. El 70% de los nidos tuvieron dos huevos (1,7 huevos/nido) y el 63,5% fueron exitosos con 1,6 polluelos/nido exitoso. El hábitat potencial de anidación es estrecho (242 km2) y se localiza en el centro del humedal. De la distribución prevista, la superficie con alta probabilidad de presencia es del 13,8%. El 60% del herbazal de ciénaga de la zona del estudio estaba comprendido dentro de la distribución potencial, mientras que la proporción de cultivos (1,2%) y pastizales (2,1%) era baja. Las AP gestionadas solo protegen el 39,1% de la distribución potencial de los sitios de anidación y el 12% de las zonas con alta probabilidad. Se proponen tres sitios prioritarios para estudiar la anidación de la subespecie y hacer un seguimiento de la misma. Las medidas de conservación de la subespecie deberían considerar la distribución geográfica potencial de los sitios de anidación dentro y fuera de las AP.Reproductive parameters and potential geographical distribution of nesting areas of Grus canadensis nesiotes (Aves, Gruidae) in Cuba: conservation implications Grus canadensis nesiotes (Cuban sandhill crane) is an endemic and endangered subspecies from Cuba. Protection of wetland habitats is essential for survival of this species, but studies that could contribute to its management and conservation are lacking. In this study we recorded the reproductive parameters of Grus canadensis nesiotes in eight breeding seasons between 2005 and 2015 in a wetland of Cuba. We modeled and characterized the potential geographical distribution of the nesting areas, analyzing its representation within protected areas. Maximum entropy algorithm and habitat variables were used for modeling (100 m of pixel size). To characterize the potential distribution we calculated each land–use–vegetation within the potential distribution. We used the same procedure to determine the extent of the protected area. A hundred and fifty–one nests were located in marsh grasslands. These nests were simple platforms built on wet soil/water; the largest nests were observed in 2006. Seventy percent of nests had two eggs (1.7 eggs/nest) and 63.5% were successful with 1.6 chicks per successful nest. The potential nesting habitat is a narrow stretch (242 km2) located in the center of the wetland. The area with high probability of presence makes up 13.8% of the predicted distribution. Sixty percent of marsh grassland of the study area was included in the potential distribution, while the proportion of crops (1.2%) and pastures (2.1%) was low. Managed protected areas cover only 39.1% of the potential distribution of the nesting sites and 12% of the high probability areas. We propose three priority sites to study and monitor nesting of the subspecies. Species conservation actions should consider the potential geographical distribution of nesting sites both inside and outside the protected areas

Epidemic Incidence in Correlated Complex Networks

We introduce a numerical method to solve epidemic models on the underlying topology of complex networks. The approach exploits the mean-field like rate equations describing the system and allows to work with very large system sizes, where Monte Carlo simulations are useless due to memory needs. We then study the SIR epidemiological model on assortative networks, providing numerical evidence of the absence of epidemic thresholds. Besides, the time profiles of the populations are analyzed. Finally, we stress that the present method would allow to solve arbitrary epidemic-like models provided that they can be described by mean-field rate equations.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures. Final version published in PR

Bounds for the time to failure of hierarchical systems of fracture

For years limited Monte Carlo simulations have led to the suspicion that the time to failure of hierarchically organized load-transfer models of fracture is non-zero for sets of infinite size. This fact could have a profound significance in engineering practice and also in geophysics. Here, we develop an exact algebraic iterative method to compute the successive time intervals for individual breaking in systems of height $n$ in terms of the information calculated in the previous height $n-1$. As a byproduct of this method, rigorous lower and higher bounds for the time to failure of very large systems are easily obtained. The asymptotic behavior of the resulting lower bound leads to the evidence that the above mentioned suspicion is actually true.Comment: Final version. To appear in Phys. Rev. E, Feb 199

Experimental and numerical investigation of the compression and expansion of a granular bed of repelling magnetic disks

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