Bayesian estimation of Lassa virus epidemiological parameters: Implications for spillover prevention using wildlife vaccination

Lassa virus is a significant burden on human health throughout its endemic region in West Africa, with most human infections the result of spillover from the primary rodent reservoir of the virus, the natal multimammate mouse, M. natalensis. Here we develop a Bayesian methodology for estimating epidemiological parameters of Lassa virus within its rodent reservoir and for generating probabilistic predictions for the efficacy of rodent vaccination programs. Our approach uses Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to integrate mechanistic mathematical models, remotely-sensed precipitation data, and Lassa virus surveillance data from rodent populations. Using simulated data, we show that our method accurately estimates key model parameters, even when surveillance data are available from only a relatively small number of points in space and time. Applying our method to previously published data from two villages in Guinea estimates the time-averaged R0 of Lassa virus to be 1.74 and 1.54 for rodent populations in the villages of Bantou and Tanganya, respectively. Using the posterior distribution for model parameters derived from these Guinean populations, we evaluate the likely efficacy of vaccination programs relying on distribution of vaccine-laced baits. Our results demonstrate that effective and durable reductions in the risk of Lassa virus spillover into the human population will require repeated distribution of large quantities of vaccine

Responsiveness and minimal clinically important difference for pain and disability instruments in low back pain patients

BACKGROUND: The choice of an evaluative instrument has been hampered by the lack of head-to-head comparisons of responsiveness and the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) in subpopulations of low back pain (LBP). The objective of this study was to concurrently compare responsiveness and MCID for commonly used pain scales and functional instruments in four subpopulations of LBP patients. METHODS: The Danish versions of the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), the 23-item Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMQ), the physical function and bodily pain subscales of the SF36, the Low Back Pain Rating Scale (LBPRS) and a numerical rating scale for pain (0–10) were completed by 191 patients from the primary and secondary sectors of the Danish health care system. Clinical change was estimated using a 7-point transition question and a numeric rating scale for importance. Responsiveness was operationalised using standardardised response mean (SRM), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and cut-point analysis. Subpopulation analyses were carried out on primary and secondary sector patients with LBP only or leg pain +/- LBP. RESULTS: RMQ was the most responsive instrument in primary and secondary sector patients with LBP only (SRM = 0.5–1.4; ROC = 0.75–0.94) whereas ODI and RMQ showed almost similar responsiveness in primary and secondary sector patients with leg pain (ODI: SRM = 0.4–0.9; ROC = 0.76–0.89; RMQ: SRM = 0.3–0.9; ROC = 0.72–0.88). In improved patients, the RMQ was more responsive in primary and secondary sector patients and LBP only patients (SRM = 1.3–1.7) while the RMQ and ODI were equally responsive in leg pain patients (SRM = 1.3 and 1.2 respectively). All pain measures demonstrated almost equal responsiveness. The MCID increased with increasing baseline score in primary sector and LBP only patients but was only marginally affected by patient entry point and pain location. The MCID of the percentage change score remained constant for the ODI (51%) and RMQ (38%) specifically and differed in the subpopulations. CONCLUSION: RMQ is suitable for measuring change in LBP only patients and both ODI and RMQ are suitable for leg pain patients irrespectively of patient entry point. The MCID is baseline score dependent but only in certain subpopulations. Relative change measured using the ODI and RMQ was not affected by baseline score when patients quantified an important improvement

Red Blood Cell Fatty Acid Patterns and Acute Coronary Syndrome

BACKGROUND:Assessment of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk is typically based on a weighted combination of standard risk factors. We sought to determine the extent to which a lipidomic approach based on red blood cell fatty acid (RBC-FA) profiles could discriminate acute coronary syndrome (ACS) cases from controls, and to compare RBC-FA discrimination with that based on standard risk factors. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:RBC-FA profiles were measured in 668 ACS cases and 680 age-, race- and gender-matched controls. Multivariable logistic regression models based on FA profiles (FA) and standard risk factors (SRF) were developed on a random 2/3(rds) derivation set and validated on the remaining 1/3(rd). The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (c-statistics), misclassification rates, and model calibrations were used to evaluate the individual and combined models. The FA discriminated cases from controls better than the SRF (c = 0.85 vs. 0.77, p = 0.003) and the FA profile added significantly to the standard model (c = 0.88 vs. 0.77, p<0.0001). Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration was poor for the FA model alone (p = 0.01), but acceptable for both the SRF (p = 0.30) and combined models (p = 0.22). Misclassification rates were 23%, 29% and 20% for FA, the SRF, and the combined models, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:RBC-FA profiles contribute significantly to the discrimination of ACS cases, especially when combined with standard risk factors. The utility of FA patterns in risk prediction warrants further investigation

Three-Week Old Pigs Are Not Susceptible to Productive Infection with SARS-COV-2

As the COVID-19 pandemic moves into its third year, there remains a need for additional animal models better recapitulating severe COVID to study SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis and develop countermeasures, especially treatment options. Pigs are known intermediate hosts for many viruses with zoonotic potential and are susceptible to infection with alpha, beta and delta genera of coronaviruses. Herein, we infected young (3 weeks of age) pigs with SARS-CoV-2 using a combination of respiratory and parenteral inoculation routes. Pigs did not develop clinical disease, nor macroscopic or microscopic pathologic lesions upon SARS-CoV-2 infection. Despite occasional low levels of SARS-CoV-2 genomic RNA in the respiratory tract, subgenomic RNA and infectious virus were never found, and SARS-CoV-2-specific adaptive immune responses were not detectable over the 13-day study period. We concluded that pigs are not susceptible to productive SARS-CoV-2 infection and do not serve as a SARS-CoV-2 reservoir for zoonotic transmission.</jats:p

Predictive value of coronary calcifications for future cardiac events in asymptomatic patients with diabetes mellitus: A prospective study in 716 patients over 8 years

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To establish an efficient prophylaxis of coronary artery disease reliable risk stratification is crucial, especially in the high risk population of patients suffering from diabetes mellitus. This prospective study determined the predictive value of coronary calcifications for future cardiovascular events in asymptomatic patients with diabetes mellitus.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We included 716 patients suffering from diabetes mellitus (430 men, 286 women, age 55.2 ± 15.2 years) in this study. On study entry all patients were asymptomatic and had no history of coronary artery disease. In addition, all patients showed no signs of coronary artery disease in ECG, stress ECG or echocardiography. Coronary calcifications were determined with the Imatron C 150 XP electron beam computed tomograph. For quantification of coronary calcifications we calculated the Agatston score. After a mean observation period of 8.1 ± 1.1 years patients were contacted and the event rate of cardiac death (CD) and myocardial infarction (MI) was determined.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During the observation period 40 patients suffered from MI, 36 patients died from acute CD. The initial Agatston score in patients that suffered from MI or died from CD (475 ± 208) was significantly higher compared to those without cardiac events (236 ± 199, p < 0.01). An Agatston score above 400 was associated with a significantly higher annualised event rate for cardiovascular events (5.6% versus 0.7%, p < 0.01). No cardiac events were observed in patients with exclusion of coronary calcifications. Compared to the Framingham risk score and the UKPDS score the Agatston score showed a significantly higher diagnostic accuracy in the prediction of MI with an area under the ROC curve of 0.77 versus 0.68, and 0.71, respectively, p < 0.01.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>By determination of coronary calcifications patients at risk for future MI and CD could be identified within an asymptomatic high risk group of patients suffering from diabetes mellitus. On the other hand future events could be excluded in patients without coronary calcifications.</p

Relationship between intratumoral expression of genes coding for xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes and benefit from adjuvant tamoxifen in estrogen receptor alpha-positive postmenopausal breast carcinoma

INTRODUCTION: Little is known of the function and clinical significance of intratumoral dysregulation of xenobiotic-metabolizing enzyme expression in breast cancer. One molecular mechanism proposed to explain tamoxifen resistance is altered tamoxifen metabolism and bioavailability. METHODS: To test this hypothesis, we used real-time quantitative RT-PCR to quantify the mRNA expression of a large panel of genes coding for the major xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes (12 phase I enzymes, 12 phase II enzymes and three members of the ABC transporter family) in a small series of normal breast (and liver) tissues, and in estrogen receptor alpha (ERα)-negative and ERα-positive breast tumors. Relevant genes were further investigated in a well-defined cohort of 97 ERα-positive postmenopausal breast cancer patients treated with primary surgery followed by adjuvant tamoxifen alone. RESULTS: Seven of the 27 genes showed very weak or undetectable expression in both normal and tumoral breast tissues. Among the 20 remaining genes, seven genes (CYP2A6, CYP2B6, FMO5, NAT1, SULT2B1, GSTM3 and ABCC11) showed significantly higher mRNA levels in ERα-positive breast tumors than in normal breast tissue, or showed higher mRNA levels in ERα-positive breast tumors than in ERα-negative breast tumors. In the 97 ERα-positive breast tumor series, most alterations of these seven genes corresponded to upregulations as compared with normal breast tissue, with an incidence ranging from 25% (CYP2A6) to 79% (NAT1). Downregulation was rare. CYP2A6, CYP2B6, FMO5 and NAT1 emerged as new putative ERα-responsive genes in human breast cancer. Relapse-free survival was longer among patients with FMO5-overexpressing tumors or NAT1-overexpressing tumors (P = 0.0066 and P = 0.000052, respectively), but only NAT1 status retained prognostic significance in Cox multivariate regression analysis (P = 0.0013). CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, these data point to a role of genes coding for xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes in breast tumorigenesis, NAT1 being an attractive candidate molecular predictor of antiestrogen responsiveness

Genetic Impact of a Severe El Niño Event on Galápagos Marine Iguanas (Amblyrhynchus cristatus)

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of climatic disturbance, impacting the dynamics of ecosystems worldwide. Recent models predict that human-generated rises in green-house gas levels will cause an increase in the strength and frequency of El Niño warming events in the next several decades, highlighting the need to understand the potential biological consequences of increased ENSO activity. Studies have focused on the ecological and demographic implications of El Niño in a range of organisms, but there have been few systematic attempts to measure the impact of these processes on genetic diversity in populations. Here, we evaluate whether the 1997–1998 El Niño altered the genetic composition of Galápagos marine iguana populations from eleven islands, some of which experienced mortality rates of up to 90% as a result of El Niño warming. Specifically, we measured the temporal variation in microsatellite allele frequencies and mitochondrial DNA diversity (mtDNA) in samples collected before (1991/1993) and after (2004) the El Niño event. Based on microsatellite data, only one island (Marchena) showed signatures of a genetic bottleneck, where the harmonic mean of the effective population size (Ne) was estimated to be less than 50 individuals during the period between samplings. Substantial decreases in mtDNA variation between time points were observed in populations from just two islands (Marchena and Genovesa). Our results suggests that, for the majority of islands, a single, intense El Niño event did not reduce marine iguana populations to the point where substantial neutral genetic diversity was lost. In the case of Marchena, simultaneous changes to both nuclear and mitochondrial DNA variation may also be the result of a volcanic eruption on the island in 1991. Therefore, studies that seek to evaluate the genetic impact of El Niño must also consider the confounding or potentially synergistic effect of other environmental and biological forces shaping populations

Landscape Ecology of Sylvatic Chikungunya Virus and Mosquito Vectors in Southeastern Senegal

The risk of human infection with sylvatic chikungunya (CHIKV) virus was assessed in a focus of sylvatic arbovirus circulation in Senegal by investigating distribution and abundance of anthropophilic Aedes mosquitoes, as well as the abundance and distribution of CHIKV in these mosquitoes. A 1650 km2 area was classified into five land cover classes: forest, barren, savanna, agriculture and village. A total of 39,799 mosquitoes was sampled from all classes using human landing collections between June 2009 and January 2010. Mosquito diversity was extremely high, and overall vector abundance peaked at the start of the rainy season. CHIKV was detected in 42 mosquito pools. Our data suggest that Aedes furcifer, which occurred abundantly in all land cover classes and landed frequently on humans in villages outside of houses, is probably the major bridge vector responsible for the spillover of sylvatic CHIKV to humans