Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Perilaku Nelayan Artisanal dalam Pemanfaatan Sumberdaya Perikanan di Pantai Utara Provinsi Jawa Barat

This study aims to estimate accurately the behavior using the Theory of Planned Behavior perspective of artisanal fishermen in Indonesi., The population of artisanal fishermen in the northern coast of West Java Province 10,404. Techniques for sampling by cluster random sampling clusters with the number of household sample of 400 artisanal fishermen. Data was collected using a questionnaire interview further processed using the program structural equation model (SEM) and LISREL 8:54. The conclusion of this study were (1) Theory of Planned Behavior perspective can be used to view the behavior intention of artisanal fishermen in the northern coast of West Java province; (2) the coefficient of determination between the attitude variables, subjective norm, perceived behavior control to variable behavior intention at 0,64. Meanwhile the influence of variables on behavior intention to behavior by 0,68 indicates that it is not fully manifested the behavior intention in accordance with the behavior of fishermen in their fishing activities, (3) that explains the study's findings about contribution of the Theory Planned Behavior perspective to the problem of coastal common resource and can contribute to the activities of co-management of fisheries in Indonesia, especially in communities in the study area on the northern coast of West Java Province

ESTIMATING THE INTENSITY IN THE FORM OF A POWER FUNCTION OF AN INHOMOGENEOUS POISSON PROCESS

An estimator of the intensity in the form of a power function of an inhomogeneous Poisson process is constructed and investigated. It is assumed that only a single realization of the Poisson process is observed in a bounded window. We prove that the proposed estimator is consistent when the size of the window indefinitely expands. The asymptotic bias, variance and the mean- squared error of the proposed estimator are computed. Asymptotic normality of the estimator is also established

EVALUASI NUMERIK PENDUGA FUNGSI NILAI HARAPAN DAN FUNGSI RAGAM PROSES POISSON MAJEMUK DENGAN INTENSITAS EKSPONENSIAL FUNGSI LINEAR

Performances of estimators for the mean and variance functions of a compound Poisson process having intensity obtained as an exponential of linear function are investigated using Monte Carlo simulations. The intensity function of this process is assumed to be (+) with 0<<∞, where is assumed to be known. In [8], estimators of the mean and variance functions of this process have been constructed and have been proved to be unbiased, weakly and strongly consistent. The objectives of this research are to check distributions of these estimators using Monte Carlo simulation and to check the convergence to 1− of the probabilities that the parameters are contained in the confidence intervals constructed in [11]. Results of the research are as follows. Distribution of estimators for the mean and variance functions are approximately normal. For a given significance level , the larger the size of observation interval, the closer the probabilities that the parameters are contained in the confidence intervals to 1−

SIMULASI SISTEM BONUS-MALUS PADA ASURANSI KENDARAAN BERMOTOR BERDASARKAN JENIS KECELAKAAN DAN TINGKAT KEPARAHAN

Penelitian ini membahas asuransi kendaraan bermotor di mana penentuan harga premi risikonya berdasarkan data riwayat kecelakaan di masa lalu (experience rating) dan disebut dengan sistem Bonus-Malus. Pada sistem Bonus-Malus, pemegang polis yang telah mengajukan satu atau lebih klaim akan dikenakan kenaikan premi (Malus), sedangkan yang tidak mengajukan klaim akan diberikan penghargaan berupa penurunan premi (Bonus) di periode pembayaran premi berikutnya. Simulasi sistem Bonus-Malus yang dibahas ada tiga sistem. Untuk semua sistem, setiap tahun yang tidak ada klaim dihargai dengan turun satu tingkat. Sistem Bonus-Malus pertama menghukum setiap klaim kerusakan barang naik dua tingkat dan klaim cedera tubuh naik empat tingkat  sistem kedua menghukum setiap klaim (kerusakan barang atau cedera tubuh) naik dua tingkat  dan sistem ketiga menghukum setiap klaim (kerusakan barang atau cedera tubuh) naik tiga tingkat  Dari ketiga sistem diperoleh proporsi banyaknya nasabah dan besar premi relatif di setiap kelas premi. Kelas premi pertama (state 0) merupakan kelas premi paling murah dan kelas premi terakhir (state 8) merupakan kelas premi paling mahal. Hasil dari simulasi diperoleh proporsi nasabah di kelas premi paling murah paling banyak di sistem kedua sebesar 54.70% dengan besar premi relatif sebesar 85.76% dan paling sedikit di sistem ketiga sebesar 42.44% dengan besar premi relatif sebesar 80.81%. Proporsi nasabah di kelas premi paling mahal paling banyak di sistem ketiga sebesar 6.45% dengan besar premi relatif sebesar 132.85% dan paling sedikit di sistem kedua sebesar 2.60% dengan besar premi relatif sebesar 139.84%

PENDUGAAN PARAMETER DAN KEKONVERGENAN PENDUGA PARAMETER MODEL POISSON HIDDEN MARKOV

Model hidden Markov terdiri dari sepasang proses stokastik yaitu proses observasi dan proses yang memengaruhi observasi. Proses stokastik yang memengaruhi observasi ini diasumsikan membentuk rantai Markov dan tidak diamati. Model Poisson hidden Markov (MPHM) adalah salah satu model hidden Markov diskret dan proses observasinya jika diketahui proses yang memengaruhinya diasumsikan menyebar Poisson. Salah satu ciri MPHM adalah bersifat overdispersi, yaitu ragam data lebih besar dari rataannya. Permasalahan utama MPHM ialah  menduga parameter yang memaksimumkan fungsi likelihood. Fungsi likelihood dihitung menggunakan algoritme Forward-Backward. Algoritme Expectation Maximization (algoritme EM) digunakan untuk memaksimumkan fungsi likelihood. Penduga parameter MPHM yang diperoleh menggunakan algoritme EM konvergen ke titik stasioner dari fungsi likelihood

ANALISIS RISIKO OPERASIONAL MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN DISTRIBUSI KERUGIAN DENGAN METODE AGREGAT

Operational risk is defined as the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes or external problems. Insurance companies as financial institution that also faced at risk. Recording of operating losses in insurance companies, were not properly conducted so that the impact on the limited data for operational losses. In this work, the data of operational loss observed from the payment of the claim. In general, the number of insurance claims can be modelled using the Poisson distribution, where the expected value of the claims is similar with variance, while the negative binomial distribution, the expected value was bound to be less than the variance.Analysis tools are used in the measurement of the potential loss is the loss distribution approach with the aggregate method. In the aggregate method, loss data grouped in a frequency distribution and severity distribution. After doing 10.000 times simulation are resulted total loss of claim value, which is total from individual claim every simulation. Then from the result was set the value of potential loss (OpVar) at a certain level confidence

PENENTUAN PREMI ASURANSI JIWA BERJANGKA MENGGUNAKAN MODEL VASICEK DAN MODEL COX-INGERSOLL-ROSS (CIR)

Tingkat suku bunga berpengaruh pada penentuan besaran nilai premi. Nilai suku bunga diperoleh dengan menggunakan model suku bunga Vasicek dan CIR. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menghitung nilai suku bunga, nilai premi, dan perbandingan nilai premi dari model suku bunga Vasicek dan model suku bunga CIR. Nilai suku bunga akan digunakan dalam menghitung nilai premi asuransi jiwa berjangka tahun dengan pembayaran cicilan premi saat besaran konstan tapi berbeda untuk dua periode dan cicilan premi saat besaran meningkat secara linear ketika uang pertanggungan dibayarkan di akhir tahun. Hasil perhitungan premi asuransi jiwa berjangka dengan model Vasicek dan model CIR tidak ada perbedaan yang signifikan

This Study Was to Analyze Factors Influencing the Performance of Agricultural Extension Workers and Their Impact on the Competence of Cacao Farmers. a Number of 116 Agricultural Extension Workers, 116 Groups of Farmer Leaders and 232 Cacao Farmers From Four Districts in South Sulawesi Were Participated in This Study. LISREL Program with SEM Was Used in Analyzing Data. the Result Shows That the Agricultural Extension Workers Performance Was Influenced Significantly by Characteristic, Competence, Motivation and Self Reliance. the Total Impact of Them Was 71%. the Suggestion Was That Their Performance Must Be Improved by Providing Special Training to Improve Their Capability in Agricultural Extension Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation, Agricultural Extension Development and Technology Dissemination. Key Words: Agricultural Extension Workers, Competence of Cacao Farmers, Performance

This study was to analyze factors influencing the performance of agricultural extension workers and their impact on the competence of cacao farmers. A number of 116 agricultural extension workers, 116 groups of farmer leaders and 232 cacao farmers from four districts in South Sulawesi were participated in this study. LISREL program with SEM was used in analyzing data. The result shows that the agricultural extension workers performance was influenced significantly by characteristic, competence, motivation and self reliance. The total impact of them was 71%. The suggestion was that their performance must be improved by providing special training to improve their capability in agricultural extension planning, monitoring and evaluation, agricultural extension development and technology dissemination

Kondisi Sosial Ekonomi Nelayan Artisanal di Pantai Utara Provinsi Jawa Barat

This study is a research about the socio-economic conditions of artisanal fishermen in the northern coast ofWest Java Province. The purpose of this study was to provide data about the characteristics of socio-economicconditions of fishermen, especially in Java island in the middle is still very limited studies on these themes inIndonesia. Total sample of this study 400 respondents artisanal fishing households in the northern coast of WestJava Province who are scattered in the districts of Cirebon, Indramayu, Subang, Karawang and Bekasi withtechniques for sampling random clusters. The findings of this study again confirms the condition of marginal socialand economic needs of fishermen who co-management in the field of fisheries with the involvement of variousstakeholders. The findings of this study can also contribute in providing a description of one of the stakeholdersbenefiting from the resources of the coastal artisanal fishermen

Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Perilaku Nelayan Artisanal dalam Pemanfaatan Sumberdaya Perikanan di Pantai Utara Provinsi Jawa Barat

This study aims to estimate accurately the behavior using the Theory of Planned Behavior perspective of artisanal fishermen in Indonesia, in the midst of life with the condition of degradation of marine resources are declining, absolute poverty faced by artisanal fishermen and the more complex issues of coastal resource use in Indonesia with a more diversity of stakeholders utilizing these resources. The population of artisanal fishermen in the northern coast of West Java Province 10,404. Techniques for sampling by cluster random sampling clusters with the number of household sample of 400 artisanal fishermen. Data was collected using a questionnaire interview further processed using the program structural equation model (SEM) and LISREL 8:54. The conclusion of this study were (1) Theory of planned behavior perspective can be used to view the intention to behave and conduct artisanal fishermen in the northern coast of West Java province, despite the possible existence of behavior that is done without the intention to behave (2) the coefficient of determination between the attitude variables, subjective norm, perceived behavior control to variable behavior intention at 0.40. These conditions indicate the existence of other variable factors of 60% outside variables that affect the intention of this study to behave. Meanwhile the influence of variables on behavior intention to behave by 0.51 indicates that it is not fully manifested the intention to behave in accordance with the behavior of fishermen in their fishing activities, (3) that explains the study's findings about the factors that influence the behavior of artisanal fishermen in the utilization fishery resources, can contribute to the activities of co-management of fisheries in Indonesia, especially in communities in the study area on the northern coast of West Java Province