Middle atmospheric ozone, nitrogen dioxide and nitrogen trioxide in 2002-2011: SD-WACCM simulations compared to GOMOS observations

Most of our understanding of the atmosphere is based on observations and their comparison with model simulations. In middle atmosphere studies it is common practice to use an approach, where the model dynamics are at least partly based on temperature and wind fields from an external meteorological model. In this work we test how closely satellite measurements of a few central trace gases agree with this kind of model simulation. We use collocated vertical profiles where each satellite measurement is compared to the closest model data. We compare profiles and distributions of O3, NO2 and NO3 from the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars instrument (GOMOS) on the Envisat satellite with simulations by the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). GOMOS measurements are from nighttime. Our comparisons show that in the stratosphere outside the polar regions differences in ozone between WACCM and GOMOS are small, between 0 and 6%. The correlation of 5-day time series show a very high 0.9-0.95. In the tropical region 10° S-10° N below 10hPa WACCM values are up to 20% larger than GOMOS. In the Arctic below 6 hPa WACCM ozone values are up to 20% larger than GOMOS. In the mesosphere between 0.04 and 1hPa the WACCM is at most 20% smaller than GOMOS. Above the ozone minimum at 0.01hPa (or 80km) large differences are found between WACCM and GOMOS. The correlation can still be high, but at the second ozone peak the correlation falls strongly and the ozone abundance from WACCM is about 60% smaller than that from GOMOS. The total ozone columns (above 50hPa) of GOMOS and WACCM agree within ±2% except in the Arctic where WACCM is 10% larger than GOMOS. Outside the polar areas and in the validity region of GOMOS NO2 measurements (0.3-37 hPa) WACCM and GOMOS NO2 agree within -5 to +25% and the correlation is high (0.7-0.95) except in the upper stratosphere at the southern latitudes. In the polar areas, where solar particle precipitation and downward transport from the thermosphere enhance NO2 abundance, large differences up to -90% are found between WACCM and GOMOS NO2 and the correlation varies between 0.3 and 0.9. For NO3, we find that the WACCM and GOMOS difference is between -20 and 5% with a very high correlation of 0.7-0.95. We show that NO3 values strongly depend on temperature and the dependency can be fitted by the exponential function of temperature. The ratio of NO3 to O3 from WACCM and GOMOS closely follow the prediction from the equilibrium chemical theory. Abrupt temperature increases from sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are reflected as sudden enhancements of WACCM and GOMOS NO3 values

Magnetic-local-time dependency of radiation belt electron precipitation: impact on ozone in the polar middle atmosphere

The radiation belts are regions in the near-Earth space where solar wind electrons are captured by the Earth's magnetic field. A portion of these electrons is continuously lost into the atmosphere where they cause ionization and chemical changes. Driven by the solar activity, the electron forcing leads to ozone variability in the polar stratosphere and mesosphere. Understanding the possible dynamical connections to regional climate is an ongoing research activity which supports the assessment of greenhouse-gas-driven climate change by a better definition of the solar-driven variability. In the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), energetic electron and proton precipitation is included in the solar-forcing recommendation for the first time. For the radiation belt electrons, the CMIP6 forcing is from a daily zonal-mean proxy model. This zonal-mean model ignores the well-known dependency of precipitation on magnetic local time (MLT), i.e. its diurnal variability. Here we use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with its lower-ionospheric-chemistry extension (WACCM-D) to study effects of the MLT dependency of electron forcing on the polar-ozone response. We analyse simulations applying MLT-dependent and MLT-independent forcings and contrast the resulting ozone responses in monthly-mean data as well as in monthly means at individual local times. We consider two cases: (1) the year 2003 and (2) an extreme, continuous forcing. Our results indicate that the ozone responses to the MLT-dependent and the MLT-independent forcings are very similar, and the differences found are small compared to those caused by the overall uncertainties related to the representation of electron forcing in climate simulations. We conclude that the use of daily zonal-mean electron forcing will provide an accurate ozone response in long-term climate simulations

Statistical response of middle atmosphere composition to solar proton events in WACCM-D simulations: the importance of lower ionospheric chemistry

Atmospheric effects of solar proton events (SPEs) have been studied for decades, because their drastic impact can be used to test our understanding of upper stratospheric and mesospheric chemistry in the polar cap regions. For example, odd hydrogen and odd nitrogen are produced during SPEs, which leads to depletion of ozone in catalytic reactions, such that the effects are easily observed from satellites during the strongest events. Until recently, the complexity of the ion chemistry in the lower ionosphere (i.e., in the D region) has restricted global models to simplified parameterizations of chemical impacts induced by energetic particle precipitation (EPP). Because of this restriction, global models have been unable to correctly reproduce some important effects, such as the increase in mesospheric HNO3 or the changes in chlorine species. Here we use simulations from the WACCM-D model, a variant of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, to study the statistical response of the atmosphere to the 66 strongest SPEs which occurred in the years 1989–2012. Our model includes a set of D-region ion chemistry, designed for a detailed representation of the atmospheric effects of SPEs and EPP in general. We use superposed epoch analysis to study changes in O3, HOx (OH + HO2), Clx (Cl + ClO), HNO3, NOx (NO + NO2) and H2O. Compared to the standard WACCM which uses an ion chemistry parameterization, WACCM-D produces a larger response in O3 and NOx and a weaker response in HOx and introduces changes in HNO3 and Clx. These differences between WACCM and WACCM-D highlight the importance of including ion chemistry reactions in models used to study EPP

D-region ion–neutral coupled chemistry (Sodankylä Ion Chemistry, SIC) within the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM 4) – WACCM-SIC and WACCM-rSIC

This study presents a new ion–neutral chemical model coupled into the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The ionospheric D-region (altitudes ∼  50–90 km) chemistry is based on the Sodankylä Ion Chemistry (SIC) model, a one-dimensional model containing 307 ion–neutral and ion recombination, 16 photodissociation and 7 photoionization reactions of neutral species, positive and negative ions, and electrons. The SIC mechanism was reduced using the simulation error minimization connectivity method (SEM-CM) to produce a reaction scheme of 181 ion–molecule reactions of 181 ion–molecule reactions of 27 positive and 18 negative ions. This scheme describes the concentration profiles at altitudes between 20 km and 120 km of a set of major neutral species (HNO3, O3, H2O2, NO, NO2, HO2, OH, N2O5) and ions (O2+, O4+, NO+, NO+(H2O), O2+(H2O), H+(H2O), H+(H2O)2, H+(H2O)3, H+(H2O)4, O3−, NO2−, O−, O2, OH−, O2−(H2O), O2−(H2O)2, O4−, CO3−, CO3−(H2O), CO4−, HCO3−, NO2−, NO3−, NO3−(H2O), NO3−(H2O)2, NO3−(HNO3), NO3−(HNO3)2, Cl−, ClO−), which agree with the full SIC mechanism within a 5 % tolerance. Four 3-D model simulations were then performed, using the impact of the January 2005 solar proton event (SPE) on D-region HOx and NOx chemistry as a test case of four different model versions: the standard WACCM (no negative ions and a very limited set of positive ions); WACCM-SIC (standard WACCM with the full SIC chemistry of positive and negative ions); WACCM-D (standard WACCM with a heuristic reduction of the SIC chemistry, recently used to examine HNO3 formation following an SPE); and WACCM-rSIC (standard WACCM with a reduction of SIC chemistry using the SEM-CM method). The standard WACCM misses the HNO3 enhancement during the SPE, while the full and reduced model versions predict significant NOx, HOx and HNO3 enhancements in the mesosphere during solar proton events. The SEM-CM reduction also identifies the important ion–molecule reactions that affect the partitioning of odd nitrogen (NOx), odd hydrogen (HOx) and O3 in the stratosphere and mesosphere

Ozone impact from solar energetic particles cools the polar stratosphere

Understanding atmospheric impacts of solar energetic particle precipitation (EPP) remains challenging, from quantification of the response in ozone, to implications on temperature. Both are necessary to understand links between EPP and regional climate variability. Here we use a chemistry-climate model to assess the importance of EPP on late winter/spring polar stratosphere. In transient simulations, the impact on NO(y), ozone, and temperature is underestimated when using EPP forcing from the current recommendation of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The resulting temperature response is largely masked by overall dynamical variability. An idealised experiment with EPP forcing that reproduces observed levels of NO(y) results in a significant reduction of ozone (up to 25%), cooling the stratosphere (up to 3 K) during late winter/spring. Our results unravel the inconsistency regarding the temperature response to EPP-driven springtime ozone decrease, and highlight the need for an improved EPP forcing in climate simulations

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850–2014), and future (2015–2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2–NRLSSI2) and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE). A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m−2. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m−2. In the 200–400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %).We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry–climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day−1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day−1 at the stratopause), temperatures ( ∼  1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry–climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long-term effects of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of particle forcing has been shown to significantly improve the representation of reactive nitrogen and ozone variability in the polar middle atmosphere, eventually resulting in further improvements in the representation of solar climate variability in global models.</br

Solar Forcing for CMIP6 (v3.1)

This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850–2014), and future (2015–2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models. For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2–NRLSSI2) and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE). A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m−2. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m−2. In the 200–400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %). We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry–climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day−1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day−1 at the stratopause), temperatures ( ∼  1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset. CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry–climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long-term effects of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of particle forcing has been shown to significantly improve the representation of reactive nitrogen and ozone variability in the polar middle atmosphere, eventually resulting in further improvements in the representation of solar climate variability in global models

Solar Forcing for CMIP6 (v3.1)

This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850–2014), and future (2015–2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models. For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2–NRLSSI2) and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE). A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m−2. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m−2. In the 200–400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %). We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry–climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day−1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day−1 at the stratopause), temperatures ( ∼  1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset. CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry–climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long-term effects of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of particle forcing has been shown to significantly improve the representation of reactive nitrogen and ozone variability in the polar middle atmosphere, eventually resulting in further improvements in the representation of solar climate variability in global models