Analysis of the capacity of google trends to measure interest in conservation topics and the role of online news

With the continuous growth of internet usage, Google Trends has emerged as a source of information to investigate how social trends evolve over time. Knowing how the level of interest in conservation topics--approximated using Google search volume--varies over time can help support targeted conservation science communication. However, the evolution of search volume over time and the mechanisms that drive peaks in searches are poorly understood. We conducted time series analyses on Google search data from 2004 to 2013 to investigate: (i) whether interests in selected conservation topics have declined and (ii) the effect of news reporting and academic publishing on search volume. Although trends were sensitive to the term used as benchmark, we did not find that public interest towards conservation topics such as climate change, ecosystem services, deforestation, orangutan, invasive species and habitat loss was declining. We found, however, a robust downward trend for endangered species and an upward trend for ecosystem services. The quantity of news articles was related to patterns in Google search volume, whereas the number of research articles was not a good predictor but lagged behind Google search volume, indicating the role of news in the transfer of conservation science to the public

Coupled Information Diffusion–Pest Dynamics Models Predict Delayed Benefits of Farmer Cooperation in Pest Management Programs

Worldwide, the theory and practice of agricultural extension system have been dominated for almost half a century by Rogers' “diffusion of innovation theory”. In particular, the success of integrated pest management (IPM) extension programs depends on the effectiveness of IPM information diffusion from trained farmers to other farmers, an important assumption which underpins funding from development organizations. Here we developed an innovative approach through an agent-based model (ABM) combining social (diffusion theory) and biological (pest population dynamics) models to study the role of cooperation among small-scale farmers to share IPM information for controlling an invasive pest. The model was implemented with field data, including learning processes and control efficiency, from large scale surveys in the Ecuadorian Andes. Our results predict that although cooperation had short-term costs for individual farmers, it paid in the long run as it decreased pest infestation at the community scale. However, the slow learning process placed restrictions on the knowledge that could be generated within farmer communities over time, giving rise to natural lags in IPM diffusion and applications. We further showed that if individuals learn from others about the benefits of early prevention of new pests, then educational effort may have a sustainable long-run impact. Consistent with models of information diffusion theory, our results demonstrate how an integrated approach combining ecological and social systems would help better predict the success of IPM programs. This approach has potential beyond pest management as it could be applied to any resource management program seeking to spread innovations across populations

Forest Fruit Production Is Higher on Sumatra Than on Borneo

BACKGROUND: Various studies have shown that the population densities of a number of forest vertebrates, such as orangutans, are higher on Sumatra than Borneo, and that several species exhibit smaller body sizes on Borneo than Sumatra and mainland Southeast Asia. It has been suggested that differences in forest fruit productivity between the islands can explain these patterns. Here we present a large-scale comparison of forest fruit production between the islands to test this hypothesis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data on fruit production were collated from Sumatran and Bornean sites. At six sites we assessed fruit production in three forest types: riverine, peat swamp and dryland forests. We compared fruit production using time-series models during different periods of overall fruit production and in different tree size classes. We examined overall island differences and differences specifically for fruiting period and tree size class. The results of these analyses indicate that overall the Sumatran forests are more productive than those on Borneo. This difference remains when each of the three forest types (dryland, riverine, and peat) are examined separately. The difference also holds over most tree sizes and fruiting periods. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results provide strong support for the hypothesis that forest fruit productivity is higher on Sumatra than Borneo. This difference is most likely the result of the overall younger and more volcanic soils on Sumatra than Borneo. These results contribute to our understanding of the determinants of faunal density and the evolution of body size on both islands