Causal inference based on counterfactuals

BACKGROUND: The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. DISCUSSION: This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. SUMMARY: Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept

DMSO and Betaine Greatly Improve Amplification of GC-Rich Constructs in De Novo Synthesis

In Synthetic Biology, de novo synthesis of GC-rich constructs poses a major challenge because of secondary structure formation and mispriming. While there are many web-based tools for codon optimizing difficult regions, no method currently exists that allows for potentially phenotypically important sequence conservation. Therefore, to overcome these limitations in researching GC-rich genes and their non-coding elements, we explored the use of DMSO and betaine in two conventional methods of assembly and amplification. For this study, we compared the polymerase (PCA) and ligase-based (LCR) methods for construction of two GC-rich gene fragments implicated in tumorigenesis, IGF2R and BRAF. Though we found no benefit in employing either DMSO or betaine during the assembly steps, both additives greatly improved target product specificity and yield during PCR amplification. Of the methods tested, LCR assembly proved far superior to PCA, generating a much more stable template to amplify from. We further report that DMSO and betaine are highly compatible with all other reaction components of gene synthesis and do not require any additional protocol modifications. Furthermore, we believe either additive will allow for the production of a wide variety of GC-rich gene constructs without the need for expensive and time-consuming sample extraction and purification prior to downstream application

Predation on an Upper Trophic Marine Predator, the Steller Sea Lion: Evaluating High Juvenile Mortality in a Density Dependent Conceptual Framework

The endangered western stock of the Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) – the largest of the eared seals – has declined by 80% from population levels encountered four decades ago. Current overall trends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Aleutian Islands appear neutral with strong regional heterogeneities. A published inferential model has been used to hypothesize a continuous decline in natality and depressed juvenile survival during the height of the decline in the mid-late 1980's, followed by the recent recovery of juvenile survival to pre-decline rates. However, these hypotheses have not been tested by direct means, and causes underlying past and present population trajectories remain unresolved and controversial. We determined post-weaning juvenile survival and causes of mortality using data received post-mortem via satellite from telemetry transmitters implanted into 36 juvenile Steller sea lions from 2005 through 2011. Data show high post-weaning mortality by predation in the eastern Gulf of Alaska region. To evaluate the impact of such high levels of predation, we developed a conceptual framework to integrate density dependent with density independent effects on vital rates and population trajectories. Our data and model do not support the hypothesized recent recovery of juvenile survival rates and reduced natality. Instead, our data demonstrate continued low juvenile survival in the Prince William Sound and Kenai Fjords region of the Gulf of Alaska. Our results on contemporary predation rates combined with the density dependent conceptual framework suggest predation on juvenile sea lions as the largest impediment to recovery of the species in the eastern Gulf of Alaska region. The framework also highlights the necessity for demographic models based on age-structured census data to incorporate the differential impact of predation on multiple vital rates

Neuron-glial Interactions

Although lagging behind classical computational neuroscience, theoretical and computational approaches are beginning to emerge to characterize different aspects of neuron-glial interactions. This chapter aims to provide essential knowledge on neuron-glial interactions in the mammalian brain, leveraging on computational studies that focus on structure (anatomy) and function (physiology) of such interactions in the healthy brain. Although our understanding of the need of neuron-glial interactions in the brain is still at its infancy, being mostly based on predictions that await for experimental validation, simple general modeling arguments borrowed from control theory are introduced to support the importance of including such interactions in traditional neuron-based modeling paradigms.Junior Leader Fellowship Program by “la Caixa” Banking Foundation (LCF/BQ/LI18/11630006

Neuron-Glial Interactions

Although lagging behind classical computational neuroscience, theoretical and computational approaches are beginning to emerge to characterize different aspects of neuron-glial interactions. This chapter aims to provide essential knowledge on neuron-glial interactions in the mammalian brain, leveraging on computational studies that focus on structure (anatomy) and function (physiology) of such interactions in the healthy brain. Although our understanding of the need of neuron-glial interactions in the brain is still at its infancy, being mostly based on predictions that await for experimental validation, simple general modeling arguments borrowed from control theory are introduced to support the importance of including such interactions in traditional neuron-based modeling paradigms.Comment: 43 pages, 2 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in the "Encyclopedia of Computational Neuroscience," D. Jaeger and R. Jung eds., Springer-Verlag New York, 2020 (2nd edition

DNA variation in a 13-Mb region including the F9 gene: inferring the genealogical history and causal role of a hemophilia B mutation (IVS 5+13 A -> G)

About 5.5% of all UK hemophilia B patients have the base substitution IVS 5+13 A-->G as the only change in their factor (F)IX gene (F9). This generates a novel donor splice site which fits the consensus better than the normal intron 5 donor splice. Use of the novel splice site should result in a missense mutation followed by the abnormal addition of four amino acids to the patients' FIX. In order to explain the prevalence of this mutation, its genealogical history is examined. Analysis of restriction fragment length polymorphism in the 21 reference UK individuals (from different families) with the above mutation showed identical haplotypes in 19 while two differed from the rest and from each other. In order to investigate the history of the mutation and to verify that it had occurred independently more than once, the sequence variation in 1.5-kb segments scattered over a 13-Mb region including F9 was examined in 18 patients and 15 controls. This variation was then analyzed with a recently developed Bayesian approach that reconstructs the genealogy of the gene investigated while providing evidence of independent mutations that contribute disconnected branches to the genealogical tree. The method also provides minimum estimates of the age of the mutation inherited by the members of coherent trees. This revealed that 17 or 18 mutant genes descend from a founder who probably lived 450 years ago, while one patient carries an independent mutation. The independent recurrence of the IVS5+13 A-->G mutation strongly supports the conclusion that it is the cause of these patients' mild hemophilia