A multi-arm multi-stage clinical trial design for binary outcomes with application to tuberculosis

Randomised controlled trials are becoming increasingly costly and time-consuming. In 2011, Royston and colleagues proposed a particular class of multi-arm multi-stage (MAMS) designs intended to speed up the evaluation of new treatments in phase II and III clinical trials. Their design, which controls the type I error rate and power for each pairwise comparison, discontinues randomisation to poorly performing arms at interim analyses if they fail to show a pre-specified level of benefit over the control arm. Arms in which randomisation is continued to the final stage of the trial are compared against the control on a definitive time-to-event outcome measure. To increase efficiency, interim comparisons can be made on an intermediate time-to-event outcome which is on the causal pathway to the definitive outcome

Challenges in the clinical assessment of novel tuberculosis drugs

To effectively tackle the global TB epidemic, novel treatment strategies are critically needed to shorten the duration of TB therapy and treat drug-resistant TB. Drug development for TB, stymied for decades, has enjoyed a renaissance over the past several years. However, development of new TB regimens is hindered by the limitations in our understanding and use of preclinical models; the paucity of accurate, early surrogate markers of cure, and challenges in untangling the individual contributions of drugs to multidrug regimens in a complex, multi-compartment disease. Lack of profit motive, advocacy, and imagination has contributed mightily to the dearth of drugs we have on the shelf to treat this ancient disease. Areas that will speed the development of new regimens for TB include novel murine and in vitro pharmacodynamics models, clinical endpoints that are not culture-based, innovative clinical trial designs, and an infusion of much-needed funding

Type I error rates of multi-arm multi-stage clinical trials: strong control and impact of intermediate outcomes

BACKGROUND: The multi-arm multi-stage (MAMS) design described by Royston et al. [Stat Med. 2003;22(14):2239-56 and Trials. 2011;12:81] can accelerate treatment evaluation by comparing multiple treatments with a control in a single trial and stopping recruitment to arms not showing sufficient promise during the course of the study. To increase efficiency further, interim assessments can be based on an intermediate outcome (I) that is observed earlier than the definitive outcome (D) of the study. Two measures of type I error rate are often of interest in a MAMS trial. Pairwise type I error rate (PWER) is the probability of recommending an ineffective treatment at the end of the study regardless of other experimental arms in the trial. Familywise type I error rate (FWER) is the probability of recommending at least one ineffective treatment and is often of greater interest in a study with more than one experimental arm. METHODS: We demonstrate how to calculate the PWER and FWER when the I and D outcomes in a MAMS design differ. We explore how each measure varies with respect to the underlying treatment effect on I and show how to control the type I error rate under any scenario. We conclude by applying the methods to estimate the maximum type I error rate of an ongoing MAMS study and show how the design might have looked had it controlled the FWER under any scenario. RESULTS: The PWER and FWER converge to their maximum values as the effectiveness of the experimental arms on I increases. We show that both measures can be controlled under any scenario by setting the pairwise significance level in the final stage of the study to the target level. In an example, controlling the FWER is shown to increase considerably the size of the trial although it remains substantially more efficient than evaluating each new treatment in separate trials. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed methods allow the PWER and FWER to be controlled in various MAMS designs, potentially increasing the uptake of the MAMS design in practice. The methods are also applicable in cases where the I and D outcomes are identical

The UK register of HIV seroconverters: Methods and analytical issues

A Register of HIV-infected persons who have had a negative antibody test within 3 years of their first antibody positive test (seroconverters) is being set up in the UK to monitor the distribution of times from HIV seroconversion to AIDS (the incubation period) and to death. It will also provide a national resource for use by those designing studies in this group of individuals. Clinicians caring for HIV-positive persons in Genito-Urinary Medicine, Infectious Disease and other departments throughout the UK were asked to participate by providing information on eligible subjects. Most laboratories undertaking HIV antibody testing were also contacted and asked to provide the name of the attending clinician for all seroconverters identified through the HIV laboratory reporting systems of the PHLS Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre (CDSC) and the Scottish Centre for Infection and Environmental Health (SCIEH) and for any other seroconverters known to them but not identified by CDSC or SCIEH. Data items sought for the Register include: sex, ethnic group, probable route of HIV transmission, annual CD4 counts, details of therapy and prophylaxis prescribed, AIDS-defining events and vital status. Follow up information is collected annually. Wherever possible, all seroconverters known to a clinic have been identified, whether currently alive or dead, either from clinic records or laboratory reporting or both. The objective is to establish and update a complete register of seroconverters on a long-term basis to provide reliable estimates of the incubation period on which future projections of AIDS cases in the UK can be made

Structural and optical investigation of non-polar (1-100) GaN grown by the ammonothermal method

We studied the structural and optical properties of state-of-the-art non-polar bulk GaN grown by the ammonothermal method. The investigated samples have an extremely low dislocation density (DD) of less than 5 × 104cm-2, which results in very narrow high-resolution x-ray rocking curves. The a and c lattice parameters of these stress-free GaN samples were precisely determined by using an x-ray diffraction technique based on the modified Bond method. The obtained values are compared to the lattice parameters of free-standing GaN from different methods and sources. The observed differences are discussed in terms of free-electron concentrations, point defects, and DD. Micro Raman spectroscopy revealed a very narrow phonon linewidth and negligible built-in strain in accordance with the high-resolution x-ray diffraction data. The optical transitions were investigated by cathodoluminescence measurements. The analysis of the experimental data clearly demonstrates the excellent crystalline perfection of ammonothermal GaN material and its potential for fabrication of non-polar substrates for homoepitaxial growth of GaN based device structures. © 2013 AIP Publishing LLC

Testing many treatments within a single protocol over 10 years at MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL: Multi-arm, multi-stage platform, umbrella and basket protocols

There is real need to change how we do some of our clinical trials, as currently the testing and development process is too slow, too costly and too failure-prone often we find that a new treatment is no better than the current standard. Much of the focus on the development and testing pathway has been in improving the design of phase I and II trials. In this article, we present examples of new methods for improving the design of phase III trials (and the necessary lead up to them) as they are the most time-consuming and expensive part of the pathway. Key to all these methods is the aim to test many treatments and/or pose many therapeutic questions within one protocol

Specific β-Tubulin Isotypes Can Functionally Enhance or Diminish Epothilone B Sensitivity in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Cells

Epothilones are a new class of microtubule stabilizing agents with promising preclinical and clinical activity. Their cellular target is β-tubulin and factors influencing intrinsic sensitivity to epothilones are not well understood. In this study, the functional significance of specific β-tubulin isotypes in intrinsic sensitivity to epothilone B was investigated using siRNA gene knockdown against βII-, βIII- or βIVb-tubulins in two independent non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cell lines, NCI-H460 and Calu-6. Drug-treated clonogenic assays showed that sensitivity to epothilone B was not altered following knockdown of βII-tubulin in both NSCLC cell lines. In contrast, knockdown of βIII-tubulin significantly increased sensitivity to epothilone B. Interestingly, βIVb-tubulin knockdowns were significantly less sensitive to epothilone B, compared to mock- and control siRNA cells. Cell cycle analysis of βIII-tubulin knockdown cells showed a higher percentage of cell death with epothilone B concentrations as low as 0.5 nM. In contrast, βIVb-tubulin knockdown cells displayed a decrease in epothilone B-induced G2-M cell cycle accumulation compared to control siRNA cells. Importantly, βIII-tubulin knockdowns displayed a significant dose-dependent increase in the percentage of apoptotic cells upon treatment with epothilone B, as detected using caspase 3/7 activity and Annexin-V staining. Higher concentrations of epothilone B were required to induce apoptosis in the βIVb-tubulin knockdowns compared to control siRNA, highlighting a potential mechanism underlying decreased sensitivity to this agent. This study demonstrates that specific β-tubulin isotypes can influence sensitivity to epothilone B and may influence differential sensitivity to this promising new agent

Four-month moxifloxacin-based regimens for drug-sensitive tuberculosis

BACKGROUND: Early-phase and preclinical studies suggest that moxifloxacin-containing regimens could allow for effective 4-month treatment of uncomplicated, smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial to test the noninferiority of two moxifloxacin-containing regimens as compared with a control regimen. One group of patients received isoniazid, rifampin, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol for 8 weeks, followed by 18 weeks of isoniazid and rifampin (control group). In the second group, we replaced ethambutol with moxifloxacin for 17 weeks, followed by 9 weeks of placebo (isoniazid group), and in the third group, we replaced isoniazid with moxifloxacin for 17 weeks, followed by 9 weeks of placebo (ethambutol group). The primary end point was treatment failure or relapse within 18 months after randomization. RESULTS: Of the 1931 patients who underwent randomization, in the per-protocol analysis, a favorable outcome was reported in fewer patients in the isoniazid group (85%) and the ethambutol group (80%) than in the control group (92%), for a difference favoring the control group of 6.1 percentage points (97.5% confidence interval [CI], 1.7 to 10.5) versus the isoniazid group and 11.4 percentage points (97.5% CI, 6.7 to 16.1) versus the ethambutol group. Results were consistent in the modified intention-to-treat analysis and all sensitivity analyses. The hazard ratios for the time to culture negativity in both solid and liquid mediums for the isoniazid and ethambutol groups, as compared with the control group, ranged from 1.17 to 1.25, indicating a shorter duration, with the lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals exceeding 1.00 in all cases. There was no significant difference in the incidence of grade 3 or 4 adverse events, with events reported in 127 patients (19%) in the isoniazid group, 111 (17%) in the ethambutol group, and 123 (19%) in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: The two moxifloxacin-containing regimens produced a more rapid initial decline in bacterial load, as compared with the control group. However, noninferiority for these regimens was not shown, which indicates that shortening treatment to 4 months was not effective in this setting. (Funded by the Global Alliance for TB Drug Development and others; REMoxTB ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00864383.)