Design and Validation of a Distributed Observer-Based Estimation Scheme for Power Grids

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IEEE via the DOI in this record.This paper presents a novel estimation scheme for power grids based on distributed observers. Assuming only the generator voltage phase angles are measured and the electrical load active power demands are specified, we design an observer for each bus of the power grid, exploiting only knowledge of local information about the power system. In particular, we propose a super-twisting-like sliding mode observer to estimate the frequency deviation for each generator bus, and a so-called algebraic observer to estimate the load voltage phase angle for each load bus based on distributed iterative algorithms. The observer-based estimation scheme is validated by considering the IEEE 39 bus SimPowerSystems model

Higher Order Sliding Mode Observers in Power Grids with Traditional and Renewable Sources

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IEEE via the DOI in this recordThis letter considers the application of higher order sliding mode (SM) observers to robustly and dynamically estimate the unmeasured state variables in modern power grids, in which both traditional and renewable energy sources coexist. In particular, a power grid composed of traditional, wind and inverter-based sources connected with dynamical loads is considered. Assuming that only the voltage phase angles are locally measured, a dedicated higher order SM observer is designed for each component, which is able to estimate in finite time the unmeasured state variables. Numerical simulations demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed scheme, also when compared with well-established linear observers

Higher Order Sliding Mode Observers in Power Grids with Traditional and Renewable Sources

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IEEE via the DOI in this recordThis letter considers the application of higher order sliding mode (SM) observers to robustly and dynamically estimate the unmeasured state variables in modern power grids, in which both traditional and renewable energy sources coexist. In particular, a power grid composed of traditional, wind and inverter-based sources connected with dynamical loads is considered. Assuming that only the voltage phase angles are locally measured, a dedicated higher order SM observer is designed for each component, which is able to estimate in finite time the unmeasured state variables. Numerical simulations demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed scheme, also when compared with well-established linear observers

Sliding Mode Based Dynamic State Estimation for Synchronous Generators in Power Systems

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IEEE via the DOI in this record This letter deals with the design of a robust sliding mode observer for dynamic state estimation applied to synchronous generators in power systems. Assuming only the frequency deviation of the generator is measured via phasor measurement units, we use a robust sliding mode estimation technique to dynamically reconstruct the rotor angle and the transient voltage. The adopted estimation technique is insensitive to matched bounded uncertainties affecting the dynamics of the synchronous generator. A stability analysis and tuning rules for the observer are also provided. Numerical simulations confirm the validity of the approach

Forecasting with dimension switching VARs

This paper develops methods for VAR forecasting when the researcher is uncertain about which variables enter the VAR, and the dimension of the VAR may be changing over time. It considers the case where there are N variables which might potentially enter a VAR and the researcher is interested in forecasting N ∗ of them. Thus, the researcher is faced with 2 N − N ∗ potential VARs. If N is large, conventional Bayesian methods can be infeasible due to the computational burden of dealing with a huge model space. Allowing for the dimension of the VAR to change over time only increases this burden. In light of these considerations, this paper uses computationally practical approximations adapted from the dynamic model averaging literature in order to develop methods for dynamic dimension selection (DDS) in VARs. We then show the benefits of DDS in a macroeconomic forecasting application. In particular, DDS switches between different parsimonious VARs and forecasts appreciably better than various small and large dimensional VARs

Scenario dependence of linear site-effect factors for short-period response spectral ordinates

Ground‐motion models for response spectral ordinates commonly partition site‐response effects into linear and nonlinear components. The nonlinear components depend upon the earthquake scenario being considered implicitly through the use of the expected level of excitation at some reference horizon. The linear components are always assumed to be independent of the earthquake scenario. This article presents empirical and numerical evidence as well as a theoretical explanation for why the linear component of site response depends upon the magnitude and distance of the earthquake scenario. Although the impact is most pronounced for small‐magnitude scenarios, the finding has significant implications for a number of applications of more general interest including the development of site‐response terms within ground‐motion models, the estimation of ground‐motion variability components ϕS2SϕS2S and ϕSSϕSS , the construction of partially nonergodic models for site‐specific hazard assessments, and the validity of the convolution approach for computing surface hazard curves from those at a reference horizon, among others. All of these implications are discussed in the present article

Sliding Mode Observer-Based Finite Time Control Scheme for Frequency Regulation and Economic Dispatch in Power Grids

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers via the DOI in this record.In this brief, a novel sliding mode (SM) observer-based scheme is proposed to achieve frequency regulation and economic dispatch (ED) in power grids composed of interconnection of generators and load buses. The ED problem is addressed in two steps. Assuming only the voltage phase angles are measured, in the first step a network of heterogeneous SM observers, suitably interconnected in a distributed fashion, is created to estimate both frequency deviations and unknown power levels associated with each bus. In the second step, the observer scheme is coupled with an SM control strategy which is able to reach the optimal value of the control input in each generator bus in finite time. The scheme is assessed via the IEEE 39 bus benchmark, and a comparison with existing control methods is provided

Developing a model for the prediction of ground motions due to earthquakes in the Groningen gas field

Major efforts are being undertaken to quantify seismic hazard and risk due to production-induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field as the basis for rational decision-making about mitigation measures. An essential element is a model to estimate surface ground motions expected at any location for each earthquake originating within the gas reservoir. Taking advantage of the excellent geological and geophysical characterisation of the field and a growing database of ground-motion recordings, models have been developed for predicting response spectral accelerations, peak ground velocity and ground-motion durations for a wide range of magnitudes. The models reflect the unique source and travel path characteristics of the Groningen earthquakes, and account for the inevitable uncertainty in extrapolating from the small observed magnitudes to potential larger events. The predictions of ground-motion amplitudes include the effects of nonlinear site response of the relatively soft near-surface deposits throughou t the field