A promising alternative to prediction of seasonal mean all India rainfall

Prediction of seasonal mean All India Rainfall (AIR) is useful during extreme monsoon years (droughts and floods) when the rainfall anomaly is homogeneous over the country. It is, however, useless for any regional hydro-meteorological applications during 'normal' monsoon years (70 per cent of available record), when the rainfall anomaly is quite inhomogeneous within the country. Further, there exists an intrinsic limit to predict the seasonal mean monsoon. The theoretically achievable skill (with perfect model and near perfect data) for seasonal prediction of rainfall being barely useful, there is a need to explore an alternative strategy for monsoon prediction even if it is with a shorter lead time. Based on some of our previous work, we propose here that predicting the phases of the monsoon sub-seasonal oscillation (active and break spells) 3-4 weeks in advance is such an alternative strategy. We argue that such predictions would be more useful for regional hydro-meteorological applications. Potential for such extended range prediction is demonstrated. Using an empirical model, it is further demonstrated that this potential can be achieved and useful prediction of monsoon breaks three weeks in advance could be made. Future direction in improving such extended range prediction of sub-seasonal spells is discussed

Models of multivariate regression for labor accidents in different production sectors: comparative study

The present article shows the results of an investigation carried out on the use of alternatives to carry out work accident studies in an objective manner in three production sectors that are of high risk: the electric power production sector, cement production and oil refining sector, so the main objective is focused on identifying the influential variables and the regression model that best explains the accident in each of these sectors and perform a comparative analysis between them. Among the techniques and tools used (data mining) are those related to multivariate statistics and generalized linear models and through the Akaike information criterion and Bayeciano criterion, it was possible to determine that the best regression model that explains the accident rate in two of the sectors studied is the negative binomial (cement and petroleum refining), while in the electric power sector, the best fit model resulted in Logistic Regression. In turn, for the three sectors in general, the variables that have the most significant impact are related to aspects such as: management commitment, occupational safety climate, safety training, psychosocial aspects and ergonomic sources, this result was corroborated by means of an accident analysis carried out in these three sectors

Sensory theories of developmental dyslexia: three challenges for research.

Recent years have seen the publication of a range of new theories suggesting that the basis of dyslexia might be sensory dysfunction. In this Opinion article, the evidence for and against several prominent sensory theories of dyslexia is closely scrutinized. Contrary to the causal claims being made, my analysis suggests that many proposed sensory deficits might result from the effects of reduced reading experience on the dyslexic brain. I therefore suggest that longitudinal studies of sensory processing, beginning in infancy, are required to successfully identify the neural basis of developmental dyslexia. Such studies could have a powerful impact on remediation.This is the accepted manuscript. The final version is available from NPG at http://www.nature.com/nrn/journal/v16/n1/abs/nrn3836.html

Genetic divergence is not the same as phenotypic divergence

Far too often, phenotypic divergence has been misinterpreted as genetic divergence, and based on phenotypic divergence, genetic divergence has been indicated. We have attempted to disprove this statement and call for the differentiation of phenotypic and genotypic variation

The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during the summer season (June to September). Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of this circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind stress curl, and upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed coupled ocean-atmosphere system variability timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon subseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet

Feasibility and willingness-to-pay for integrated community-based tuberculosis testing

BACKGROUND: Community-based screening for TB, combined with HIV and syphilis testing, faces a number of barriers. One significant barrier is the value that target communities place on such screening. METHODS: Integrated testing for TB, HIV, and syphilis was performed in neighborhoods identified using geographic information systems-based disease mapping. TB testing included skin testing and interferon gamma release assays. Subjects completed a survey describing disease risk factors, healthcare access, healthcare utilization, and willingness to pay for integrated testing. RESULTS: Behavioral and social risk factors among the 113 subjects were prevalent (71% prior incarceration, 27% prior or current crack cocaine use, 35% homelessness), and only 38% had a regular healthcare provider. The initial 24 subjects reported that they would be willing to pay a median $20 (IQR: 0-100) for HIV testing and$10 (IQR: 0-100) for TB testing when the question was asked in an open-ended fashion, but when the question was changed to a multiple-choice format, the next 89 subjects reported that they would pay a median $5 for testing, and 23$5 to get tested for TB, HIV, or syphilis. Among persons who received tuberculin skin testing, only 14/78 (18%) participants returned to have their skin tests read. Only 14/109 (13%) persons who underwent HIV testing returned to receive their HIV results. CONCLUSION: The relatively high-risk persons screened in this community outreach study placed low value on testing. Reported willingness to pay for such testing, while low, likely overestimated the true willingness to pay. Successful TB, HIV, and syphilis integrated testing programs in high risk populations will likely require one-visit diagnostic testing and incentives

Indian summer monsoon onset forecast skill in the UK Met Office initialized coupled seasonal forecasting system (GloSea5-GC2)

Accurate and precise forecasting of the Indian monsoon is important for the socio-economic security of India, with improvements in agriculture and associated sectors from prediction of the monsoon onset. In this study we establish the skill of the UK Met Office coupled initialized global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2, in forecasting Indian monsoon onset. We build on previous work that has demonstrated the good skill of GloSea5 at forecasting interannual variations of the seasonal mean Indian monsoon using measures of large-scale circulation and local precipitation. We analyze the summer hindcasts from a set of three springtime start-dates in late April/early May for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011). The hindcast set features at least fifteen ensemble members for each year and is analyzed using five different objective monsoon indices. These indices are designed to examine large and local-scale measures of the monsoon circulation, hydrological changes, tropospheric temperature gradient, or rainfall for single value (area-averaged) or grid-point measures of the Indian monsoon onset. There is significant correlation between onset dates in the model and those found in reanalysis. Indices based on large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic indices are better at estimating monsoon onset in the model rather than local-scale dynamical and hydrological indices. This can be attributed to the model's better representation of large-scale dynamics compared to local-scale features. GloSea5 may not be able to predict the exact date of monsoon onset over India, but this study shows that the model has a good ability at predicting category-wise monsoon onset, using early, normal or late tercile categories. Using a grid-point local rainfall onset index, we note that the forecast skill is highest over parts of central India, the Gangetic plains, and parts of coastal India - all zones of extensive agriculture in India. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing in the model improves the forecast skill of monsoon onset when using a large-scale circulation index, with late monsoon onset coinciding with El Niño conditions and early monsoon onset more common in La Niña years. The results of this study suggest that GloSea5's ensemble-mean forecast may be used for reliable Indian monsoon onset prediction a month in advance despite systematic model errors

Characterisation of different polymorphs of tris(8-hydroxyquinolinato)aluminium(III) using solid-state NMR and DFT calculations

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Organic light emitting devices (OLED) are becoming important and characterisation of them, in terms of structure, charge distribution, and intermolecular interactions, is important. Tris(8-hydroxyquinolinato)-aluminium(III), known as Alq₃, an organomettalic complex has become a reference material of great importance in OLED. It is important to elucidate the structural details of Alq₃in its various isomeric and solvated forms. Solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) is a useful tool for this which can also complement the information obtained with X-ray diffraction studies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We report here ²⁷Al one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) multiple-quantum magic-angle spinning (MQMAS) NMR studies of the meridional (<it>α</it>-phase) and the facial (<it>δ</it>-phase) isomeric forms of Alq₃. Quadrupolar parameters are estimated from the 1D spectra under MAS and anisotropic slices of the 2D spectra and also calculated using DFT (density functional theory) quantum-chemical calculations. We have also studied solvated phase of Alq₃containing ethanol in its lattice. We show that both the XRD patterns and the quadrupolar parameters of the solvated phase are different from both the <it>α</it>-phase and the <it>δ</it>-phase, although the fluorescence emission shows no substantial difference between the <it>α</it>-phase and the solvated phase. Moreover, we have shown that after the removal of ethanol from the matrix the solvated Alq₃has similar XRD patterns and quadrupolar parameters to that of the <it>α</it>-phase.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The 2D MQMAS experiments have shown that all the different modifications of Alq₃have ²⁷Al in single unique crystallographic site. The quadrupolar parameters predicted using the DFT calculation under the isodensity polarisable continuum model resemble closely the experimentally obtained values. The solvated phase of Alq₃containing ethanol has structural difference from the <it>α</it>-phase of Alq₃(containing meridional isomer) from the solid-state NMR studies. Solid-state NMR can hence be used as an effective complementary tool to XRD for characterisation and structural elucidation.</p