Bayesian astrostatistics: a backward look to the future

This perspective chapter briefly surveys: (1) past growth in the use of Bayesian methods in astrophysics; (2) current misconceptions about both frequentist and Bayesian statistical inference that hinder wider adoption of Bayesian methods by astronomers; and (3) multilevel (hierarchical) Bayesian modeling as a major future direction for research in Bayesian astrostatistics, exemplified in part by presentations at the first ISI invited session on astrostatistics, commemorated in this volume. It closes with an intentionally provocative recommendation for astronomical survey data reporting, motivated by the multilevel Bayesian perspective on modeling cosmic populations: that astronomers cease producing catalogs of estimated fluxes and other source properties from surveys. Instead, summaries of likelihood functions (or marginal likelihood functions) for source properties should be reported (not posterior probability density functions), including nontrivial summaries (not simply upper limits) for candidate objects that do not pass traditional detection thresholds.Comment: 27 pp, 4 figures. A lightly revised version of a chapter in "Astrostatistical Challenges for the New Astronomy" (Joseph M. Hilbe, ed., Springer, New York, forthcoming in 2012), the inaugural volume for the Springer Series in Astrostatistics. Version 2 has minor clarifications and an additional referenc

Sociocultural Determinants of Teenage Childbearing Among Latinas in California

Objectives U.S. Latinas have a persistently high rate of teenage childbearing, which is associated with adverse outcomes for both mother and child. This study was designed to investigate the roles of socioeconomic factors and acculturation in teenage childbearing in this population. Methods Logistic regression was used to analyze the association of measures of acculturation (language spoken at home, nativity, and age at immigration) and respondents’ parents’ education with age at first birth in a stratified sample of post-partum women in California. Results The unadjusted odds ratio for teenage birth for Latinas versus non-Latina Whites was 5.2 (95% CI 4.1–6.6). Nativity was not significantly associated with teen birth, but speaking Spanish at home was positively associated and immigrating at a later age was negatively associated with teen birth. Overall, these measures of acculturation accounted for 17% (95% CI 8–28%) of the difference in odds of teen birth between Latinas and non-Latina Whites. Higher levels of education among respondents’ parents had differentially protective effects across the racial/ethnic groups. Controlling for disparities in respondents’ parents’ education without changing its differential effects across racial/ethnic groups reduced the odds ratio for Latinas compared to non-Latina Whites by 30% (95% CI 14–60%). Conclusion These findings call into question common assumptions about the protective effect of acculturation on teen fertility and suggest that improving childhood socioeconomic factors among Latinas may decrease teen childbearing

Multiple Signals Converge on a Differentiation MAPK Pathway

An important emerging question in the area of signal transduction is how information from different pathways becomes integrated into a highly coordinated response. In budding yeast, multiple pathways regulate filamentous growth, a complex differentiation response that occurs under specific environmental conditions. To identify new aspects of filamentous growth regulation, we used a novel screening approach (called secretion profiling) that measures release of the extracellular domain of Msb2p, the signaling mucin which functions at the head of the filamentous growth (FG) MAPK pathway. Secretion profiling of complementary genomic collections showed that many of the pathways that regulate filamentous growth (RAS, RIM101, OPI1, and RTG) were also required for FG pathway activation. This regulation sensitized the FG pathway to multiple stimuli and synchronized it to the global signaling network. Several of the regulators were required for MSB2 expression, which identifies the MSB2 promoter as a target “hub” where multiple signals converge. Accessibility to the MSB2 promoter was further regulated by the histone deacetylase (HDAC) Rpd3p(L), which positively regulated FG pathway activity and filamentous growth. Our findings provide the first glimpse of a global regulatory hierarchy among the pathways that control filamentous growth. Systems-level integration of signaling circuitry is likely to coordinate other regulatory networks that control complex behaviors

Several Genes Encoding Enzymes with the Same Activity Are Necessary for Aerobic Fungal Degradation of Cellulose in Nature

The cellulose-degrading fungal enzymes are glycoside hydrolases of the GH families and lytic polysaccharide monooxygenases. The entanglement of glycoside hydrolase families and functions makes it difficult to predict the enzymatic activity of glycoside hydrolases based on their sequence. In the present study we further developed the method Peptide Pattern Recognition to an automatic approach not only to find all genes encoding glycoside hydrolases and lytic polysaccharide monooxygenases in fungal genomes but also to predict the function of the genes. The functional annotation is an important feature as it provides a direct route to predict function from primary sequence. Furthermore, we used Peptide Pattern Recognition to compare the cellulose-degrading enzyme activities encoded by 39 fungal genomes. The results indicated that cellobiohydrolases and AA9 lytic polysaccharide monooxygenases are hallmarks of cellulose-degrading fungi except brown rot fungi. Furthermore, a high number of AA9, endocellulase and β-glucosidase genes were identified, not in what are known to be the strongest, specialized lignocellulose degraders but in saprophytic fungi that can use a wide variety of substrates whereas only few of these genes were found in fungi that have a limited number of natural, lignocellulotic substrates. This correlation suggests that enzymes with different properties are necessary for degradation of cellulose in different complex substrates. Interestingly, clustering of the fungi based on their predicted enzymes indicated that Ascomycota and Basidiomycota use the same enzymatic activities to degrade plant cell walls.<br/