Understanding Uncertainties in Model-Based Predictions of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics

Dengue is one of the most important insect-vectored human viral diseases. The principal vector is Aedes aegypti, a mosquito that lives in close association with humans. Currently, there is no effective vaccine available and the only means for limiting dengue outbreaks is vector control. To help design vector control strategies, spatial models of Ae. aegypti population dynamics have been developed. However, the usefulness of such models depends on the reliability of their predictions, which can be affected by different sources of uncertainty including uncertainty in the model parameter estimation, uncertainty in the model structure, measurement errors in the data fed into the model, individual variability, and stochasticity in the environment. This study quantifies uncertainties in the mosquito population dynamics predicted by Skeeter Buster, a spatial model of Ae. aegypti, for the city of Iquitos, Peru. The uncertainty quantification should enable us to better understand the reliability of model predictions, improve Skeeter Buster and other similar models by targeting those parameters with high uncertainty contributions for further empirical research, and thereby decrease uncertainty in model predictions

Skeeter Buster: A Stochastic, Spatially Explicit Modeling Tool for Studying Aedes aegypti Population Replacement and Population Suppression Strategies

Dengue is a viral disease that affects approximately 50 million people annually, and is estimated to result in 12,500 fatalities. Dengue viruses are vectored by mosquitoes, predominantly by the species Aedes aegypti. Because there is currently no vaccine or specific treatment, the only available strategy to reduce dengue transmission is to control the populations of these mosquitoes. This can be achieved by traditional approaches such as insecticides, or by recently developed genetic methods that propose the release of mosquitoes genetically engineered to be unable to transmit dengue viruses. The expected outcome of different control strategies can be compared by simulating the population dynamics and genetics of mosquitoes at a given location. Development of optimal control strategies can then be guided by the modeling approach. To that end, we introduce a new modeling tool called Skeeter Buster. This model describes the dynamics and the genetics of Ae. aegypti populations at a very fine scale, simulating the contents of individual houses, and even the individual water-holding containers in which mosquito larvae reside. Skeeter Buster can be used to compare the predicted outcomes of multiple control strategies, traditional or genetic, making it an important tool in the fight against dengue

fisheries and tourism social economic and ecological trade offs in coral reef systems

Coastal communities are exerting increasingly more pressure on coral reef ecosystem services in the Anthropocene. Balancing trade-offs between local economic demands, preservation of traditional values, and maintenance of both biodiversity and ecosystem resilience is a challenge for reef managers and resource users. Consistently, growing reef tourism sectors offer more lucrative livelihoods than subsistence and artisanal fisheries at the cost of traditional heritage loss and ecological damage. Using a systematic review of coral reef fishery reconstructions since the 1940s, we show that declining trends in fisheries catch and fish stocks dominate coral reef fisheries globally, due in part to overfishing of schooling and spawning-aggregating fish stocks vulnerable to exploitation. Using a separate systematic review of coral reef tourism studies since 2013, we identify socio-ecological impacts and economic opportunities associated to the industry. Fisheries and tourism have the potential to threaten the ecological stability of coral reefs, resulting in phase shifts toward less productive coral-depleted ecosystem states. We consider whether four common management strategies (unmanaged commons, ecosystem-based management, co-management, and adaptive co-management) fulfil ecological conservation and socioeconomic goals, such as living wage, job security, and maintenance of cultural traditions. Strategies to enforce resource exclusion and withhold traditional resource rights risk social unrest; thus, the coexistence of fisheries and tourism industries is essential. The purpose of this chapter is to assist managers and scientists in their responsibility to devise implementable strategies that protect local community livelihoods and the coral reefs on which they rely

[(11)C]Ascorbic and [(11)C]dehydroascorbic acid, an endogenous redox pair for sensing reactive oxygen species using positron emission tomography.

Here we report the radiosynthesis of an endogenous redox pair, [(11)C]ascorbic acid ([(11)C]VitC) and [(11)C]dehydroascorbic acid ([(11)C]DHA), the reduced and oxidized forms of vitamin C, and their application to ROS sensing. These results provide the basis for in vivo detection of ROS using positron emission tomography (PET)

Pediatric Ambulatory Formulary Card

Revised, Pediatric Ambulatory Formulary Cardhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/175987/2/Development of Fluorinated NP-59 A Revival of Cholesterol Use Imaging with PET.pdfPublished versionDescription of Development of Fluorinated NP-59 A Revival of Cholesterol Use Imaging with PET.pdf : Published versio

Can we assume that research participants are utility maximisers?

Utility maximisation, Experiment, University, I1,

An updated radiosynthesis of [18F]AV1451 for tau PET imaging

Abstract Background [18F]AV1451 is a commonly used radiotracer for imaging tau deposits in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and related non-AD tauopathies. Existing radiosyntheses of [18F]AV1451 require complex purifications to provide doses suitable for use in clinical imaging studies. To address this issue, we have modified the synthesis of [18F]AV1451 to use only 0.5 mg precursor, optimized the Boc-deprotection step and developed a simplified method for HPLC purification of the radiotracer. Results An optimized [18F]AV1451 synthesis using a TRACERLab FXFN module led to high radiochemical yield (202 ± 57 mCi per synthesis) and doses with excellent radiochemical purity (98 ± 1%) and good specific activity (2521 ± 623 Ci/mmol). Conclusion An updated and operationally simple synthesis of [18F]AV1451 has been developed that is fully automated and prepares radiotracer doses suitable for use in clinical tau PET studies.https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136917/1/41181_2017_Article_27.pd