The forecasting of dynamical Ross River virus outbreaks: Victoria, Australia

Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia’s most epidemiologically important mosquito-borne disease.During RRV epidemics in the State of Victoria (such as 2010/11 and 2016/17) notifications canaccount for up to 30% of national RRV notifications. However, little is known about factors which canforecast RRV transmission in Victoria. We aimed to understand factors associated with RRVtransmission in epidemiologically important regions of Victoria and establish an early warningforecast system. We developed negative binomial regression models to forecast human RRVnotifications across 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) using climatic, environmental, andoceanographic variables. Data were collected from July 2008 to June 2018. Data from July 2008 toJune 2012 were used as a training data set, while July 2012 to June 2018 were used as a testing dataset. Evapotranspiration and precipitation were found to be common factors for forecasting RRVnotifications across sites. Several site-specific factors were also important in forecasting RRVnotifications which varied between LGA. From the 11 LGAs examined, nine experienced an outbreakin 2011/12 of which the models for these sites were a good fit. All 11 LGAs experienced an outbreakin 2016/17, however only six LGAs could predict the outbreak using the same model. We documentsimilarities and differences in factors useful for forecasting RRV notifications across Victoria anddemonstrate that readily available and inexpensive climate and environmental data can be used to predict epidemic periods in some areas. Furthermore, we highlight in certain regions the complexityof RRV transmission where additional epidemiological information is needed to accurately predictRRV activity. Our findings have been applied to produce a Ross River virus Outbreak SurveillanceSystem (ROSS) to aid in public health decision making in Victoria

Optimising predictive modelling of Ross River virus using meteorological variables

Background:Statistical models are regularly used in the forecasting and surveillance of infectious diseases to guide public health. Variable selection assists in determining factors associated with disease transmission, however, often overlooked in this process is the evaluation and suitability of the statistical model used in forecasting disease transmission and outbreaks. Here we aim to evaluate several modelling methods to optimise predictive modelling of Ross River virus (RRV) disease notifications and outbreaks in epidemiological important regions of Victoria and Western Australia.Methodology/Principal findings:We developed several statistical methods using meteorological and RRV surveillance data from July 2000 until June 2018 in Victoria and from July 1991 until June 2018 in Western Australia. Models were developed for 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Victoria and seven LGAs in Western Australia. We found generalised additive models and generalised boosted regression models, and generalised additive models and negative binomial models to be the best fit models when predicting RRV outbreaks and notifications, respectively. No association was found with a model’s ability to predict RRV notifications in LGAs with greater RRV activity, or for outbreak predictions to have a higher accuracy in LGAs with greater RRV notifications. Moreover, we assessed the use of factor analysis to generate independent variables used in predictive modelling. In the majority of LGAs, this method did not result in better model predictive performance.Conclusions/Significance:We demonstrate that models which are developed and used for predicting disease notifications may not be suitable for predicting disease outbreaks, or vice versa. Furthermore, poor predictive performance in modelling disease transmissions may be the result of inappropriate model selection methods. Our findings provide approaches and methods to facilitate the selection of the best fit statistical model for predicting mosquito-borne disease notifications and outbreaks used for disease surveillance

What can we learn from facilitator and student perceptions of facilitation skills and roles in the first year of a problem-based learning curriculum?

BACKGROUND: The small group tutorial is a cornerstone of problem-based learning. By implication, the role of the facilitator is of pivotal importance. The present investigation canvassed perceptions of facilitators with differing levels of experience regarding their roles and duties in the tutorial. METHODS: In January 2002, one year after problem-based learning implementation at the Nelson R. Mandela School of Medicine, facilitators with the following experience were canvassed: trained and about to facilitate, facilitated once only and facilitated more than one six-week theme. Student comments regarding facilitator skills were obtained from a 2001 course survey. RESULTS: While facilitators generally agreed that the three-day training workshop provided sufficient insight into the facilitation process, they become more comfortable with increasing experience. Many facilitators experienced difficulty not providing content expertise. Again, this improved with increasing experience. Most facilitators saw students as colleagues. They agreed that they should be role models, but were less enthusiastic about being mentors. Students were critical of facilitators who were not up to date with curriculum implementation or who appeared disinterested. While facilitator responses suggest that there was considerable intrinsic motivation, this might in fact not be the case. CONCLUSIONS: Even if they had facilitated on all six themes, facilitators could still be considered as novices. Faculty support is therefore critical for the first few years of problem-based learning, particularly for those who had facilitated once only. Since student and facilitator expectations in the small group tutorial may differ, roles and duties of facilitators must be explicit for both parties from the outset

Pathological validation and significance of micrometastasis in sentinel nodes in primary breast cancer

In embracing a multidisciplinary approach to the management of patients with sentinel node biopsy in breast cancer, the pathologist task is to screen sentinel nodes for possible metastasis. The consequences of missing sentinel node micrometastasis can directly influence treatment strategies, and this screening therefore has to be performed with more attention than usual. There is presently great diversity in the histopathological work-up of sentinel nodes, with many centres employing additional techniques such as immunohistochemistry, reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction or flow cytometry in addition to routine haematoxylin and eosin staining. In this review, we address the pathological validation and significance of micrometastasis in sentinel node biopsy in primary breast cancer

Antibody Labelling of Resilin in Energy Stores for Jumping in Plant Sucking Insects

The rubbery protein resilin appears to form an integral part of the energy storage structures that enable many insects to jump by using a catapult mechanism. In plant sucking bugs that jump (Hemiptera, Auchenorrhyncha), the energy generated by the slow contractions of huge thoracic jumping muscles is stored by bending composite bow-shaped parts of the internal thoracic skeleton. Sudden recoil of these bows powers the rapid and simultaneous movements of both hind legs that in turn propel a jump. Until now, identification of resilin at these storage sites has depended exclusively upon characteristics that may not be specific: its fluorescence when illuminated with specific wavelengths of ultraviolet (UV) light and extinction of that fluorescence at low pH. To consolidate identification we have labelled the cuticular structures involved with an antibody raised against a product of the Drosophila CG15920 gene. This encodes pro-resilin, the first exon of which was expressed in E. coli and used to raise the antibody. We show that in frozen sections from two species, the antibody labels precisely those parts of the metathoracic energy stores that fluoresce under UV illumination. The presence of resilin in these insects is thus now further supported by a molecular criterion that is immunohistochemically specific

RNAi-Mediated Knock-Down of Arylamine N-acetyltransferase-1 Expression Induces E-cadherin Up-Regulation and Cell-Cell Contact Growth Inhibition

Arylamine N-acetyltransferase-1 (NAT1) is an enzyme that catalyzes the biotransformation of arylamine and hydrazine substrates. It also has a role in the catabolism of the folate metabolite p-aminobenzoyl glutamate. Recent bioinformatics studies have correlated NAT1 expression with various cancer subtypes. However, a direct role for NAT1 in cell biology has not been established. In this study, we have knocked down NAT1 in the colon adenocarcinoma cell-line HT-29 and found a marked change in cell morphology that was accompanied by an increase in cell-cell contact growth inhibition and a loss of cell viability at confluence. NAT1 knock-down also led to attenuation in anchorage independent growth in soft agar. Loss of NAT1 led to the up-regulation of E-cadherin mRNA and protein levels. This change in E-cadherin was not attributed to RNAi off-target effects and was also observed in the prostate cancer cell-line 22Rv1. In vivo, NAT1 knock-down cells grew with a longer doubling time compared to cells stably transfected with a scrambled RNAi or to parental HT-29 cells. This study has shown that NAT1 affects cell growth and morphology. In addition, it suggests that NAT1 may be a novel drug target for cancer therapeutics

Clear cell chondrosarcoma of the head and neck

Clear cell chondrosarcoma is a rare variant of chondrosarcoma that mostly involves the end of long bones. However, nine cases have been reported in the head and neck: four in larynx, two in nasal septum, two in maxilla and one in the skull. These cases form the basis of this review. Head and neck cases accounts for less than 5% of Clear cell chondrosarcomas in the whole body and the larynx is the most common place. The histological findings of head and neck cases are consistent with general features of this entity in the whole body and nearly all tumors in this case series had a component of conventional chondrosarcoma. Clear cell chondrosarcoma is an intracompartmental tumor and retains "Grenz zone" just beneath the epithelium. Therefore, the overlying mucosa remained intact in all laryngeal cases. Nasal tumor caused ballooning of the septum and the maxillary lesion did not involve the oral mucosa. This tumor presents various radiographic features in the head and neck area. Chondroblastoma, chondroma, osteoblastoma, osteosarcoma and metastatic renal cell carcinoma are included in the histologic differential diagnoses. Differentiation from chondroblastic osteosarcoma is important in the maxilla. A wide resection is adequate in most cases. However, some laryngeal cases show tendency to recur. Clear cell chondrosarcoma is a slow growing tumor and this necessitates a long time follow-up of patients. Due to the extreme rarity in the head and neck, diagnosis of Clear cell chondrosarcoma in this area, must be confirmed by histochemical and immunohistochemical studies

In vitro synergistic cytoreductive effects of zoledronic acid and radiation on breast cancer cells

INTRODUCTION: Bisphosphonates are mostly used in the treatment of bone metastases. They have been shown to act synergistically with other chemotherapeutic agents. It is not known, however, whether similar synergistic effects exist with radiation on breast cancer cells. METHODS: Human MCF-7 breast cancer cells were treated with up to 100 μM zoledronic acid, were irradiated with up to 800 cGy or were exposed to combinations of both treatments to determine the antiproliferative effects of zoledronic acid and radiation. RESULTS: Zoledronic acid and radiation caused a dose-dependent and time-dependent decrease in cell viability (approximate 50% growth inhibition values were 48 μM and 20 μM for 24 hours and 72 hours, respectively, for zoledronic acid and 500 cGy for radiation). A synergistic cytotoxic effect of the combination of zoledronic acid and radiation was confirmed by isobologram analysis. CONCLUSION: These data constitute the first in vitro evidence for synergistic effects between zoledronic acid and radiation. This combination therapy might thus be expected to be more effective than either treatment alone in patients with metastatic breast carcinoma