Yet another breakdown point notion: EFSBP - illustrated at scale-shape models

The breakdown point in its different variants is one of the central notions to quantify the global robustness of a procedure. We propose a simple supplementary variant which is useful in situations where we have no obvious or only partial equivariance: Extending the Donoho and Huber(1983) Finite Sample Breakdown Point, we propose the Expected Finite Sample Breakdown Point to produce less configuration-dependent values while still preserving the finite sample aspect of the former definition. We apply this notion for joint estimation of scale and shape (with only scale-equivariance available), exemplified for generalized Pareto, generalized extreme value, Weibull, and Gamma distributions. In these settings, we are interested in highly-robust, easy-to-compute initial estimators; to this end we study Pickands-type and Location-Dispersion-type estimators and compute their respective breakdown points.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figure

Infinitesimally Robust Estimation in General Smoothly Parametrized Models

We describe the shrinking neighborhood approach of Robust Statistics, which applies to general smoothly parametrized models, especially, exponential families. Equal generality is achieved by object oriented implementation of the optimally robust estimators. We evaluate the estimates on real datasets from literature by means of our R packages ROptEst and RobLox

Differential splicing using whole-transcript microarrays

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The latest generation of Affymetrix microarrays are designed to interrogate expression over the entire length of every locus, thus giving the opportunity to study alternative splicing genome-wide. The Exon 1.0 ST (sense target) platform, with versions for Human, Mouse and Rat, is designed primarily to probe every known or predicted exon. The smaller Gene 1.0 ST array is designed as an expression microarray but still interrogates expression with probes along the full length of each well-characterized transcript. We explore the possibility of using the Gene 1.0 ST platform to identify differential splicing events.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We propose a strategy to score differential splicing by using the auxiliary information from fitting the statistical model, RMA (robust multichip analysis). RMA partitions the probe-level data into probe effects and expression levels, operating robustly so that if a small number of probes behave differently than the rest, they are downweighted in the fitting step. We argue that adjacent poorly fitting probes for a given sample can be evidence of <it>differential </it>splicing and have designed a statistic to search for this behaviour. Using a public tissue panel dataset, we show many examples of tissue-specific alternative splicing. Furthermore, we show that evidence for putative alternative splicing has a strong correspondence between the Gene 1.0 ST and Exon 1.0 ST platforms.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We propose a new approach, FIRMAGene, to search for differentially spliced genes using the Gene 1.0 ST platform. Such an analysis complements the search for differential expression. We validate the method by illustrating several known examples and we note some of the challenges in interpreting the probe-level data.</p> <p>Software implementing our methods is freely available as an <monospace>R</monospace> package.</p

A multicentre, randomised, double-blind, single-dose study assessing the efficacy of AMC/DCBA Warm lozenge or AMC/DCBA Cool lozenge in the relief of acute sore throat

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Clinically proven over-the-counter (OTC) treatment options are becoming increasingly important in the self-management of acute sore throat. The aim of this study was to determine the analgesic and sensorial benefits of two different amylmetacresol/2,4-dichlorobenzyl alcohol (AMC/DCBA) throat lozenge formulation variants, AMC/DCBA Warm lozenge and AMC/DCBA Cool lozenge, compared with an unflavoured, non-medicated placebo lozenge in the relief of acute sore throat due to upper respiratory tract infections.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, single-dose study, 225 adult patients with acute sore throat were randomly assigned to receive either one AMC/DCBA Warm lozenge (n = 77), one AMC/DCBA Cool lozenge (n = 74) or one unflavoured, non-medicated lozenge (matched for size, shape and demulcency; n = 74). After baseline assessments, patients received their assigned lozenge and completed four rating assessments at 11 timepoints from 1 to 120 minutes post dose. Analgesic properties were assessed by comparing severity of throat soreness and sore throat relief ratings. Difficulty in swallowing, throat numbness, functional, sensorial and emotional benefits were also assessed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both the AMC/DCBA Warm and AMC/DCBA Cool lozenge induced significant analgesic, functional, sensorial and emotional effects compared with the unflavoured, non-medicated lozenge. Sore throat relief, improvements in throat soreness and difficulty in swallowing, and throat numbness were observed as early as 1-5 minutes, and lasted up to 2 hours post dose. Sensorial benefits of warming and cooling associated with the AMC/DCBA Warm and AMC/DCBA Cool lozenge, respectively, were experienced soon after first dose, and in the case of the latter, it lasted long after the lozenge had dissolved. Emotional benefits of feeling better, happier, less distracted and less frustrated were reported in those taking either of the AMC/DCBA throat lozenge variants, with no differences in adverse events compared with the unflavoured, non-medicated lozenge.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>AMC/DCBA Warm and AMC/DCBA Cool lozenges are well-tolerated and effective OTC treatment options, offering functional, sensorial and emotional benefits to patients with acute sore throat, over and above that of the rapid efficacy effects provided.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ISRCTN: <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN00003567">ISRCTN00003567</a></p

Barriers to the care of HIV-infected children in rural Zambia: a cross-sectional analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Successful antiretroviral treatment programs in rural sub-Saharan Africa may face different challenges than programs in urban areas. The objective of this study was to identify patient characteristics, barriers to care, and treatment responses of HIV-infected children seeking care in rural Zambia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cross-sectional analysis of HIV-infected children seeking care at Macha Hospital in rural southern Zambia. Information was collected from caretakers and medical records.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>192 HIV-infected children were enrolled from September 2007 through September 2008, 28% of whom were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) at enrollment. The median age was 3.3 years for children not receiving ART (IQR 1.8, 6.7) and 4.5 years for children receiving ART (IQR 2.7, 8.6). 91% travelled more than one hour to the clinic and 26% travelled more than 5 hours. Most participants (73%) reported difficulties accessing the clinic, including insufficient money (60%), lack of transportation (54%) and roads in poor condition (32%). The 54 children who were receiving ART at study enrollment had been on ART a median of 8.6 months (IQR: 2.7, 19.5). The median percentage of CD4⁺T cells was 12.4 (IQR: 9.2, 18.6) at the start of ART, and increased to 28.6 (IQR: 23.5, 36.1) at the initial study visit. However, the proportion of children who were underweight decreased only slightly, from 70% at initiation of ART to 61% at the initial study visit.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>HIV-infected children in rural southern Zambia have long travel times to access care and may have poorer weight gain on ART than children in urban areas. Despite these barriers, these children had a substantial rise in CD4⁺T cell counts in the first year of ART although longer follow-up may indicate these gains are not sustained.</p

Pre-ART Levels of Inflammation and Coagulation Markers Are Strong Predictors of Death in a South African Cohort with Advanced HIV Disease

BACKGROUND: Levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and D-dimer predict mortality in HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with relatively preserved CD4+ T cell counts. We hypothesized that elevated pre-ART levels of these markers among patients with advanced HIV would be associated with an increased risk of death following the initiation of ART. METHODS: Pre-ART plasma from patients with advanced HIV in South Africa was used to measure hsCRP, IL-6 and D-dimer. Using a nested case-control study design, the biomarkers were measured for 187 deaths and two controls matched on age, sex, clinical site, follow-up time and CD4+ cell counts. Odds ratios were estimated using conditional logistic regression. In addition, for a random sample of 100 patients, biomarkers were measured at baseline and 6 months following randomization to determine whether ART altered their levels. RESULTS: Median baseline biomarkers levels for cases and controls, respectively, were 11.25 vs. 3.6 mg/L for hsCRP, 1.41 vs. 0.98 mg/L for D-dimer, and 9.02 vs. 4.20 pg/mL for IL-6 (all p<0.0001). Adjusted odds ratios for the highest versus lowest quartile of baseline biomarker levels were 3.5 (95% CI: 1.9-6.7) for hsCRP, 2.6 (95%CI 1.4-4.9) for D-dimer, and 3.8 (95% CI: 1.8-7.8) for IL-6. These associations were stronger for deaths that occurred more proximal to the biomarker measurements. Levels of D-dimer and IL-6, but not hsCRP, were significantly lower at month 6 after commencing ART compared to baseline (p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with advanced HIV disease, elevated pre-ART levels of hsCRP, IL-6 and D-dimer are strongly associated with early mortality after commencing ART. Elevated levels of inflammatory and coagulation biomarkers may identify patients who may benefit from aggressive clinical monitoring after commencing ART. Further investigation of strategies to reduce biomarkers of inflammation and coagulation in patients with advanced HIV disease is warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Parent study: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00342355

Four-Year Treatment Outcomes of Adult Patients Enrolled in Mozambique's Rapidly Expanding Antiretroviral Therapy Program

BACKGROUND: In Mozambique during 2004-2007 numbers of adult patients (≥15 years old) enrolled on antiretroviral therapy (ART) increased about 16-fold, from <5,000 to 79,500. All ART patients were eligible for co-trimoxazole. ART program outcomes, and determinants of outcomes, have not yet been reported. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In a retrospective cohort study, we investigated rates of mortality, attrition (death, loss to follow-up, or treatment cessation), immunologic treatment failure, and regimen-switch, as well as determinants of selected outcomes, among a nationally representative sample of 2,596 adults initiating ART during 2004-2007. At ART initiation, median age of patients was 34 and 62% were female. Malnutrition and advanced disease were common; 18% of patients weighed <45 kilograms, and 15% were WHO stage IV. Median baseline CD4(+) T-cell count was 153/µL and was lower for males than females (139/µL vs. 159/µL, p<0.01). Stavudine, lamivudine, and nevirapine or efavirenz were prescribed to 88% of patients; only 31% were prescribed co-trimoxazole. Mortality and attrition rates were 3.4 deaths and 19.8 attritions per 100 patient-years overall, and 12.9 deaths and 57.2 attritions per 100 patient-years in the first 90 days. Predictors of attrition included male sex [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.3-1.8], weight <45 kg (AHR 2.1; 95% CI, 1.6-2.9, reference group >60 kg), WHO stage IV (AHR 1.7; 95% CI, 1.3-2.4, reference group WHO stage I/II), lack of co-trimoxazole prescription (AHR 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-1.8), and later calendar year of ART initiation (AHR 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2-1.8). Rates of immunologic treatment failure and regimen-switch were 14.0 and 0.6 events per 100-patient years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: ART initiation at earlier disease stages and scale-up of co-trimoxazole among ART patients could improve outcomes. Research to determine reasons for low regimen-switch rates and increasing rates of attrition during program expansion is needed

WHO 2010 Guidelines for Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission in Zimbabwe: Modeling Clinical Outcomes in Infants and Mothers

The Zimbabwean national prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) program provided primarily single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP) from 2002-2009 and is currently replacing sdNVP with more effective antiretroviral (ARV) regimens.Published HIV and PMTCT models, with local trial and programmatic data, were used to simulate a cohort of HIV-infected, pregnant/breastfeeding women in Zimbabwe (mean age 24.0 years, mean CD4 451 cells/µL). We compared five PMTCT regimens at a fixed level of PMTCT medication uptake: 1) no antenatal ARVs (comparator); 2) sdNVP; 3) WHO 2010 guidelines using "Option A" (zidovudine during pregnancy/infant NVP during breastfeeding for women without advanced HIV disease; lifelong 3-drug antiretroviral therapy (ART) for women with advanced disease); 4) WHO "Option B" (ART during pregnancy/breastfeeding without advanced disease; lifelong ART with advanced disease); and 5) "Option B+:" lifelong ART for all pregnant/breastfeeding, HIV-infected women. Pediatric (4-6 week and 18-month infection risk, 2-year survival) and maternal (2- and 5-year survival, life expectancy from delivery) outcomes were projected.Eighteen-month pediatric infection risks ranged from 25.8% (no antenatal ARVs) to 10.9% (Options B/B+). Although maternal short-term outcomes (2- and 5-year survival) varied only slightly by regimen, maternal life expectancy was reduced after receipt of sdNVP (13.8 years) or Option B (13.9 years) compared to no antenatal ARVs (14.0 years), Option A (14.0 years), or Option B+ (14.5 years).Replacement of sdNVP with currently recommended regimens for PMTCT (WHO Options A, B, or B+) is necessary to reduce infant HIV infection risk in Zimbabwe. The planned transition to Option A may also improve both pediatric and maternal outcomes