Severity Assessment of Lower Respiratory Tract Infection in Malawi: Derivation of a Novel Index (SWAT-Bp) Which Outperforms CRB-65

OBJECTIVE: To assess the validity of CRB-65 (Confusion, Respiratory rate >30 breaths/min, BP<90/60 mmHg, age >65 years) as a pneumonia severity index in a Malawian hospital population, and determine whether an alternative score has greater accuracy in this setting. DESIGN: Forty three variables were prospectively recorded during the first 48 hours of admission in all patients admitted to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Malawi, for management of lower respiratory tract infection over a two month period (N = 240). Calculation of sensitivity and specificity for CRB-65 in predicting mortality was followed by multivariate modeling to create a score with superior performance in this population. RESULTS: Median age 37, HIV prevalence 79.9%, overall mortality 18.3%. CRB-65 predicted mortality poorly, indicated by the area under the ROC curve of 0.649. Independent predictors of death were: Male sex, “S” (AOR 2.6); Wasting, “W” (AOR 6.6); non-ambulatory, “A” (AOR 2.5); Temp >38°C or <35°C, “T” (AOR 3.2); BP<100/60, “Bp” (AOR 3.7). Combining these factors to form a severity index (SWAT-Bp) predicted mortality with high sensitivity and specificity (AUC: 0.867). Mortality for scores 0–5 was 0%, 3.3%, 7.4%, 29.2%, 61.5% and 87.5% respectively. A score ≥3 was 84% sensitive and 77% specific for mortality prediction, with a negative predictive value of 95.8%. CONCLUSION: CRB-65 performs poorly in this population. The SWAT-Bp score can accurately stratify patients; ≤2 indicates non-severe infection (mortality 4.4%) and ≥3 severe illness (mortality 45%)

Erratic Flu Vaccination Emerges from Short-Sighted Behavior in Contact Networks

The effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination programs depends on individual-level compliance. Perceptions about risks associated with infection and vaccination can strongly influence vaccination decisions and thus the ultimate course of an epidemic. Here we investigate the interplay between contact patterns, influenza-related behavior, and disease dynamics by incorporating game theory into network models. When individuals make decisions based on past epidemics, we find that individuals with many contacts vaccinate, whereas individuals with few contacts do not. However, the threshold number of contacts above which to vaccinate is highly dependent on the overall network structure of the population and has the potential to oscillate more wildly than has been observed empirically. When we increase the number of prior seasons that individuals recall when making vaccination decisions, behavior and thus disease dynamics become less variable. For some networks, we also find that higher flu transmission rates may, counterintuitively, lead to lower (vaccine-mediated) disease prevalence. Our work demonstrates that rich and complex dynamics can result from the interaction between infectious diseases, human contact patterns, and behavior

Reduction in downstream test utilization following introduction of coronary computed tomography in a cardiology practice

To compare utilization of non-invasive ischemic testing, invasive coronary angiography (ICA), and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) procedures before and after introduction of 64-slice multi-detector row coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) in a large urban primary and consultative cardiology practice. We utilized a review of electronic medical records (NotesMD®) and the electronic practice management system (Megawest®) encompassing a 4-year period from 2004 to 2007 to determine the number of exercise treadmill (TME), supine bicycle exercise echocardiography (SBE), single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion stress imaging (MPI), coronary calcium score (CCS), CCTA, ICA, and PCI procedures performed annually. Test utilization in the 2 years prior to and 2 years following availability of CCTA were compared. Over the 4-year period reviewed, the annual utilization of ICA decreased 45% (2,083 procedures in 2004 vs. 1,150 procedures in 2007, P < 0.01) and the percentage of ICA cases requiring PCI increased (19% in 2004 vs. 28% in 2007, P < 0.001). SPECT MPI decreased 19% (3,223 in 2004 vs. 2,614 in 2007 P < 0.02) and exercise stress treadmill testing decreased 49% (471 in 2004 vs. 241 in 2007 P < 0.02). Over the same period, there were no significant changes in measures of practice volume (office and hospital) or the annual incidence of PCI (405 cases in 2004 vs. 326 cases in 2007) but a higher percentage of patients with significant disease undergoing PCI 19% in 2004 vs. 29% in 2007 P < 0.01. Implementation of CCTA resulted in a significant decrease in ICA and a corresponding significant increase in the percentage of ICA cases requiring PCI, indicating that CCTA resulted in more accurate referral for ICA. The reduction in unnecessary ICA is associated with avoidance of potential morbidity and mortality associated with invasive diagnostic testing, reduction of downstream SPECT MPI and TME as well as substantial savings in health care dollars

The incidence of unpleasant dreams after sub-anaesthetic ketamine

Ketamine is an N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA)receptor antagonist with psychotogenic effects and for whichthere are diverse reports of whether pleasant or unpleasantdreams result during anaesthesia, post-operatively or aftersub-anaesthetic use. The aim was to assess in healthy volunteers the incidence ofunpleasant dreams over the three nights after receiving asub-anaesthetic dose of ketamine, in comparison to placebo,and with retrospective home nightmare frequency as acovariate.Thirty healthy volunteers completed questionnairesabout retrospective home dream recall and were then giveneither ketamine or placebo. Ketamine resulted in significantly more meandream unpleasantness relative to placebo and caused athreefold increase in the odds ratio for the incidence of anunpleasant dream. The number of dreams reported over thethree nights did not differ between the groups. Theincidence of unpleasant dreams after ketamine use waspredicted by retrospectively assessed nightmare frequencyat home.Ketamine causes unpleasant dreams over thethree post-administration nights. This may be evidence of aresidual psychotogenic effect that is not found on standardself-report symptomatology measures or a result of disturbedsleep electrophysiology. The results have theoretical implications for the relationship between nightmares and schizotypy

Association Testing Of Copy Number Variants in Schizophrenia and Autism Spectrum Disorders

Background: Autism spectrum disorders and schizophrenia have been associated with an overlapping set of copynumber variant loci, but the nature and degree of overlap in copy number variants (deletions compared toduplications) between these two disorders remains unclear.Methods: We systematically evaluated three lines of evidence: (1) the statistical bases for associations of autismspectrum disorders and schizophrenia with a set of the primary CNVs thus far investigated, from previous studies;(2) data from case series studies on the occurrence of these CNVs in autism spectrum disorders, especially amongchildren, and (3) data on the extent to which the CNVs were associated with intellectual disability anddevelopmental, speech, or language delays. We also conducted new analyses of existing data on these CNVs inautism by pooling data from seven case control studies.Results: Four of the CNVs considered, dup 1q21.1, dup 15q11-q13, del 16p11.2, and dup 22q11.21, showed clearstatistical evidence as autism risk factors, whereas eight CNVs, del 1q21.1, del 3q29, del 15q11.2, del 15q13.3, dup16p11.2, dup 16p13.1, del 17p12, and del 22q11.21, were strongly statistically supported as risk factors forschizophrenia. Three of the CNVs, dup 1q21.1, dup 16p11.2, and dup 16p13.1, exhibited statistical support as riskfactors for both autism and schizophrenia, although for each of these CNVs statistical significance was nominal fortests involving one of the two disorders. For the CNVs that were statistically associated with schizophrenia but werenot statistically associated with autism, a notable number of children with the CNVs have been diagnosed withautism or ASD; children with these CNVs also demonstrate a high incidence of intellectual disability anddevelopmental, speech, or language delays.Conclusions: These findings suggest that although CNV loci notably overlap between autism and schizophrenia,the degree of strongly statistically supported overlap in specific CNVs at these loci remains limited. These analysesalso suggest that relatively severe premorbidity to CNV-associated schizophrenia in children may sometimes bediagnosed as autism spectrum disorder

Iron Behaving Badly: Inappropriate Iron Chelation as a Major Contributor to the Aetiology of Vascular and Other Progressive Inflammatory and Degenerative Diseases

The production of peroxide and superoxide is an inevitable consequence of aerobic metabolism, and while these particular "reactive oxygen species" (ROSs) can exhibit a number of biological effects, they are not of themselves excessively reactive and thus they are not especially damaging at physiological concentrations. However, their reactions with poorly liganded iron species can lead to the catalytic production of the very reactive and dangerous hydroxyl radical, which is exceptionally damaging, and a major cause of chronic inflammation. We review the considerable and wide-ranging evidence for the involvement of this combination of (su)peroxide and poorly liganded iron in a large number of physiological and indeed pathological processes and inflammatory disorders, especially those involving the progressive degradation of cellular and organismal performance. These diseases share a great many similarities and thus might be considered to have a common cause (i.e. iron-catalysed free radical and especially hydroxyl radical generation). The studies reviewed include those focused on a series of cardiovascular, metabolic and neurological diseases, where iron can be found at the sites of plaques and lesions, as well as studies showing the significance of iron to aging and longevity. The effective chelation of iron by natural or synthetic ligands is thus of major physiological (and potentially therapeutic) importance. As systems properties, we need to recognise that physiological observables have multiple molecular causes, and studying them in isolation leads to inconsistent patterns of apparent causality when it is the simultaneous combination of multiple factors that is responsible. This explains, for instance, the decidedly mixed effects of antioxidants that have been observed, etc...Comment: 159 pages, including 9 Figs and 2184 reference

Smoking and primary total hip or knee replacement due to osteoarthritis in 54,288 elderly men and women

BACKGROUND The reported association of smoking with risk of undergoing a total joint replacement (TJR) due to osteoarthritis (OA) is not consistent. We evaluated the independent association between smoking and primary TJR in a large cohort. METHODS The electronic records of 54,288 men and women, who were initially recruited for the Second Australian National Blood Pressure study, were linked to the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry to detect total hip replacement (THR) or total knee replacement (TKR) due to osteoarthritis. Competing risk regressions that accounted for the competing risk of death estimated the subhazard ratios for TJR. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to represent uncertainty in the classification of smoking exposure and socioeconomic disadvantage scores. RESULTS An independent inverse association was found between smoking and risk of THR and TKR observed in both men and women. Compared to non-smokers, male and female smokers were respectively 40% and 30% less likely to undergo a TJR. This significant association persisted after controlling for age, co-morbidities, body mass index (BMI), physical exercise, and socioeconomic disadvantage. The overweight and obese were significantly more likely to undergo TJR compared to those with normal weight. A dose–response relationship between BMI and TJR was observed (P < 0.001). Socioeconomic status was not independently associated with risk of either THR or TKR. CONCLUSION The strengths of the inverse association between smoking and TJR, the temporal relationship of the association, together with the consistency in the findings warrant further investigation about the role of smoking in the pathogenesis of osteoarthritis causing TJR.George Mnatzaganian, Philip Ryan, Christopher M Reid, David C Davidson and Janet E Hille