On the relative pricing of long-maturity index options and collateralized debt obligations

preprin

Flowering phenology in a species-rich temperate grassland is sensitive to warming but not elevated CO2

Flowering is a critical stage in plant life cycles, and changes might alter processes at the species, community and ecosystem levels. Therefore likely flowering-time responses to global change drivers are needed for predictions of global change impacts on natural and managed ecosystems. Here we report the impact of elevated [CO2] (550 mol mol-1) and warming (+2ºC) on flowering times in a native, species-rich, temperate grassland in Tasmania, Australia in both 2004 and 2005. Elevated [CO2] did not affect average time of first flowering in either year, only affecting 3 out of 23 species. Warming reduced time to first flowering by an average of 19.1 days in 2004, acting on most species, but did not significantly alter flowering time in 2005, which might be related to the timing of rainfall. Elevated [CO2] and warming treatments did not interact on flowering time. These results show elevated [CO2] did not alter average flowering time or duration in this grassland, nor did it alter the response to warming. Therefore, flowering phenology appears insensitive to increasing [CO2] in this ecosystem although the response to warming varies between years but can be strong

Observation of second-harmonic generation induced by pure spin currents

Extensive efforts are currently being devoted to developing a new electronic technology, called spintronics, where the spin of electrons is explored to carry information. [1,2] Several techniques have been developed to generate pure spin currents in many materials and structures. [3-10] However, there is still no method available that can be used to directly detect pure spin currents, which carry no net charge current and no net magnetization. Currently, studies of pure spin currents rely on measuring the induced spin accumulation with optical techniques [5, 11-13] or spin-valve configurations. [14-17] However, the spin accumulation does not directly reflect the spatial distribution or temporal dynamics of the pure spin current, and therefore cannot monitor the pure spin current in a real-time and real-space fashion. This imposes severe constraints on research in this field. Here we demonstrate a second-order nonlinear optical effect of the pure spin current. We show that such a nonlinear optical effect, which has never been explored before, can be used for the non-invasive, non-destructive, and real-time imaging of pure spin currents. Since this detection scheme does not rely on optical resonances, it can be generally applied in a wide range of materials with different electronic bandstructures. Furthermore, the control of nonlinear optical properties of materials with pure spin currents may have potential applications in photonics integrated with spintronics.Comment: 19 pages, 3 figures, supplementary discussion adde

Participation and satisfaction after spinal cord injury: results of a vocational and leisure outcome study

Study design: Survey. Objectives: Insight in (1) the changes in participation in vocational and leisure activities and (2) satisfaction with the current participation level of people with spinal cord injuries (SCIs) after reintegration in society. Design: Descriptive analysis of data from a questionnaire. Setting: Rehabilitation centre with special department for patients with SCIs, Groningen, The Netherlands. Subjects: A total of 57 patients with traumatic SCI living in the community, who were admitted to the rehabilitation centre two to 12 years before the current assessment. Main outcome measures: Changes in participation in activities; current life satisfaction; support and unmet needs. Results: Participation expressed in terms of hours spent on vocational and leisure activities changed to a great extent after the SCI. This was mainly determined by a large reduction of hours spent on paid work. While 60% of the respondents successfully reintegrated in work, many changes took place in the type and extent of the job. Loss of work was partially compensated with domestic and leisure activities. Sports activities were reduced substantially. The change in participation level and compensation for the lost working hours was not significantly associated with the level of SCI-specific health problems and disabilities. As was found in other studies, most respondents were satisfied with their lives. Determinants of a negative life satisfaction several years following SCI were not easily indicated. Reduced quality of life was particularly related to an unsatisfactory work and leisure situation. Conclusions: Most people with SCI in this study group were able to resume work and were satisfied with their work and leisure situation

A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2°C, followed by stabilisation to 4°C

Ecosystem resilience despite large-scale altered hydroclimatic conditions

Climate change is predicted to increase both drought frequency and duration, and when coupled with substantial warming, will establish a new hydroclimatological model for many regions. Large-scale, warm droughts have recently occurred in North America, Africa, Europe, Amazonia and Australia, resulting in major effects on terrestrial ecosystems, carbon balance and food security. Here we compare the functional response of above-ground net primary production to contrasting hydroclimatic periods in the late twentieth century (1975-1998), and drier, warmer conditions in the early twenty-first century (2000-2009) in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. We find a common ecosystem water-use efficiency (WUE e: Above-ground net primary production/ evapotranspiration) across biomes ranging from grassland to forest that indicates an intrinsic system sensitivity to water availability across rainfall regimes, regardless of hydroclimatic conditions. We found higher WUE e in drier years that increased significantly with drought to a maximum WUE e across all biomes; and a minimum native state in wetter years that was common across hydroclimatic periods. This indicates biome-scale resilience to the interannual variability associated with the early twenty-first century drought - that is, the capacity to tolerate low, annual precipitation and to respond to subsequent periods of favourable water balance. These findings provide a conceptual model of ecosystem properties at the decadal scale applicable to the widespread altered hydroclimatic conditions that are predicted for later this century. Understanding the hydroclimatic threshold that will break down ecosystem resilience and alter maximum WUE e may allow us to predict land-surface consequences as large regions become more arid, starting with water-limited, low-productivity grasslands. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application