Development of Prognosis in Palliative care Study (PiPS) predictor models to improve prognostication in advanced cancer: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE: To develop a novel prognostic indicator for use in patients with advanced cancer that is significantly better than clinicians' estimates of survival. DESIGN: Prospective multicentre observational cohort study. SETTING: 18 palliative care services in the UK (including hospices, hospital support teams, and community teams). PARTICIPANTS: 1018 patients with locally advanced or metastatic cancer, no longer being treated for cancer, and recently referred to palliative care services. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Performance of a composite model to predict whether patients were likely to survive for "days" (0-13 days), "weeks" (14-55 days), or "months+" (>55 days), compared with actual survival and clinicians' predictions. RESULTS: On multivariate analysis, 11 core variables (pulse rate, general health status, mental test score, performance status, presence of anorexia, presence of any site of metastatic disease, presence of liver metastases, C reactive protein, white blood count, platelet count, and urea) independently predicted both two week and two month survival. Four variables had prognostic significance only for two week survival (dyspnoea, dysphagia, bone metastases, and alanine transaminase), and eight variables had prognostic significance only for two month survival (primary breast cancer, male genital cancer, tiredness, loss of weight, lymphocyte count, neutrophil count, alkaline phosphatase, and albumin). Separate prognostic models were created for patients without (PiPS-A) or with (PiPS-B) blood results. The area under the curve for all models varied between 0.79 and 0.86. Absolute agreement between actual survival and PiPS predictions was 57.3% (after correction for over-optimism). The median survival across the PiPS-A categories was 5, 33, and 92 days and survival across PiPS-B categories was 7, 32, and 100.5 days. All models performed as well as, or better than, clinicians' estimates of survival. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with advanced cancer no longer being treated, a combination of clinical and laboratory variables can reliably predict two week and two month survival

Novel insights into maladaptive behaviours in Prader-Willi syndrome: serendipitous findings from an open trial of vagus nerve stimulation.

BACKGROUND: We report striking and unanticipated improvements in maladaptive behaviours in Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS) during a trial of vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) initially designed to investigate effects on the overeating behaviour. PWS is a genetically determined neurodevelopmental disorder associated with mild-moderate intellectual disability (ID) and social and behavioural difficulties, alongside a characteristic and severe hyperphagia. METHODS: Three individuals with PWS underwent surgery to implant the VNS device. VNS was switched on 3 months post-implantation, with an initial 0.25 mA output current incrementally increased to a maximum of 1.5 mA as tolerated by each individual. Participants were followed up monthly. RESULTS: Vagal nerve stimulation in these individuals with PWS, within the stimulation parameters used here, was safe and acceptable. However, changes in eating behaviour were equivocal. Intriguingly, unanticipated, although consistent, beneficial effects were reported by two participants and their carers in maladaptive behaviour, temperament and social functioning. These improvements and associated effects on food-seeking behaviour, but not weight, indicate that VNS may have potential as a novel treatment for such behaviours. CONCLUSIONS: We propose that these changes are mediated through afferent and efferent vagal projections and their effects on specific neural networks and functioning of the autonomic nervous system and provide new insights into the mechanisms that underpin what are serious and common problems affecting people with IDs more generally.This study was funded by The Dunhill Medical Trust, Addenbrooke’s Charitable Trust, Isaac Newton Trust , and Prader-Willi Association UK. Funding bodies had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, writing of the report or the decision to submit for publication. We are grateful to the NIHR Collaborations for Leadership in Applied Health Care Research and Care (CLAHRC) East of England for financial support to AJH and HAR and to the Health Foundation for support of AJH. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Taylor & Francis via http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jir.1220

Seeing two faces together: preference formation in humans and rhesus macaques

Humans, great apes and old world monkeys show selective attention to faces depending on conspecificity, familiarity, and social status supporting the view that primates share similar face processing mechanisms. Although many studies have been done on face scanning strategy in monkeys and humans, the mechanisms influencing viewing preference have received little attention. To determine how face categories influence viewing preference in humans and rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta), we performed two eye-tracking experiments using a visual preference task whereby pairs of faces from different species were presented simultaneously. The results indicated that viewing time was significantly influenced by the pairing of the face categories. Humans showed a strong bias towards an own-race face in an Asian–Caucasian condition. Rhesus macaques directed more attention towards non-human primate faces when they were paired with human faces, regardless of the species. When rhesus faces were paired with faces from Barbary macaques (Macaca sylvanus) or chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes), the novel species’ faces attracted more attention. These results indicate that monkeys’ viewing preferences, as assessed by a visual preference task, are modulated by several factors, species and dominance being the most influential

Handling linkage disequilibrium in qualitative trait linkage analysis using dense SNPs: a two-step strategy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In affected sibling pair linkage analysis, the presence of linkage disequilibrium (LD) has been shown to lead to overestimation of the number of alleles shared identity-by-descent (IBD) among sibling pairs when parents are ungenotyped. This inflation results in spurious evidence for linkage even when the markers and the disease locus are not linked. In our study, we first theoretically evaluate how inflation in IBD probabilities leads to overestimation of a nonparametric linkage (NPL) statistic under the assumption of linkage equilibrium. Next, we propose a two-step processing strategy in order to systematically evaluate approaches to handle LD. Based on the observed inflation of expected logarithm of the odds ratio (LOD) from our theoretical exploration, we implemented our proposed two-step processing strategy. Step 1 involves three techniques to filter a dense set of markers. In step 2, we use the selected subset of markers from step 1 and apply four different methods of handling LD among dense markers: 1) marker thinning (MT); 2) recursive elimination; 3) SNPLINK; and 4) LD modeling approach in MERLIN. We evaluate relative performance of each method through simulation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We observed LOD score inflation only when the parents were ungenotyped. For a given number of markers, all approaches evaluated for each type of LD threshold performed similarly; however, RE approach was the only one that eliminated the LOD score bias. Our simulation results indicate a reduction of approximately 75% to complete elimination of the LOD score inflation while maintaining the information content (IC) when setting a tolerable squared correlation coefficient LD threshold (r²) above 0.3 for or 2 SNPs per cM using MT.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We have established a theoretical basis of how inflated IBD information among dense markers overestimates a NPL statistic. The two-step processing strategy serves as a useful framework to systematically evaluate relative performance of different methods to handle LD.</p

Of cattle, sand flies and men : a systematic review of risk factor analyses for South Asian visceral leishmaniasis and implications for elimination

Background: Studies performed over the past decade have identified fairly consistent epidemiological patterns of risk factors for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent. Methods and Principal Findings: To inform the current regional VL elimination effort and identify key gaps in knowledge, we performed a systematic review of the literature, with a special emphasis on data regarding the role of cattle because primary risk factor studies have yielded apparently contradictory results. Because humans form the sole infection reservoir, clustering of kala-azar cases is a prominent epidemiological feature, both at the household level and on a larger scale. Subclinical infection also tends to show clustering around kala-azar cases. Within villages, areas become saturated over a period of several years; kala-azar incidence then decreases while neighboring areas see increases. More recently, post kalaazar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) cases have followed kala-azar peaks. Mud walls, palpable dampness in houses, and peridomestic vegetation may increase infection risk through enhanced density and prolonged survival of the sand fly vector. Bed net use, sleeping on a cot and indoor residual spraying are generally associated with decreased risk. Poor micronutrient status increases the risk of progression to kala-azar. The presence of cattle is associated with increased risk in some studies and decreased risk in others, reflecting the complexity of the effect of bovines on sand fly abundance, aggregation, feeding behavior and leishmanial infection rates. Poverty is an overarching theme, interacting with individual risk factors on multiple levels. Conclusions: Carefully designed demonstration projects, taking into account the complex web of interconnected risk factors, are needed to provide direct proof of principle for elimination and to identify the most effective maintenance activities to prevent a rapid resurgence when interventions are scaled back. More effective, short-course treatment regimens for PKDL are urgently needed to enable the elimination initiative to succeed

Measuring co-authorship and networking-adjusted scientific impact

Appraisal of the scientific impact of researchers, teams and institutions with productivity and citation metrics has major repercussions. Funding and promotion of individuals and survival of teams and institutions depend on publications and citations. In this competitive environment, the number of authors per paper is increasing and apparently some co-authors don't satisfy authorship criteria. Listing of individual contributions is still sporadic and also open to manipulation. Metrics are needed to measure the networking intensity for a single scientist or group of scientists accounting for patterns of co-authorship. Here, I define I1 for a single scientist as the number of authors who appear in at least I1 papers of the specific scientist. For a group of scientists or institution, In is defined as the number of authors who appear in at least In papers that bear the affiliation of the group or institution. I1 depends on the number of papers authored Np. The power exponent R of the relationship between I1 and Np categorizes scientists as solitary (R>2.5), nuclear (R=2.25-2.5), networked (R=2-2.25), extensively networked (R=1.75-2) or collaborators (R<1.75). R may be used to adjust for co-authorship networking the citation impact of a scientist. In similarly provides a simple measure of the effective networking size to adjust the citation impact of groups or institutions. Empirical data are provided for single scientists and institutions for the proposed metrics. Cautious adoption of adjustments for co-authorship and networking in scientific appraisals may offer incentives for more accountable co-authorship behaviour in published articles.Comment: 25 pages, 5 figure

Case Report: Disseminated, rifampicin resistant Mycobacterium bovis (BCG) infection in an immunocompromised child.

Background: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is a live-attenuated vaccine used world-wide for prevention of tuberculosis disease. In some immunocompromised hosts it has the potential to cause disease. As with other members of the M. tuberculosis complex it has the potential for acquiring drug resistance. Methods: We reviewed 10 years of paediatric clinical BCG strains referred to our clinical microbiology laboratory in Oxford where they underwent whole genome sequencing. We present a case series comparing clinical, pathogen genetic and pathogen phenotypic data, and consider the clinical implications. Results: We identified 15 BCG isolates from 8 children under 16 years old. Only one child had clinical disease with the other seven reported as local inoculation-site reactions. Case 1 suffered disseminated disease secondary to an undiagnosed IL-12/IFNγ receptor defect and the BCG isolates evolved two different rifampicin resistance mutations. Across all 15 isolates, phenotypic resistance to each first line drug was seen. Conclusions: BCG is a safe and effective vaccine in children. Most clinical specimens in our series were not related to disease. However, in the context of rare pathogen-specific immunocompromise, BCG can cause pathology and acquire drug resistance under selection from therapy

Sequential Effects in Judgements of Attractiveness: The Influences of Face Race and Sex

In perceptual decision-making, a person’s response on a given trial is influenced by their response on the immediately preceding trial. This sequential effect was initially demonstrated in psychophysical tasks, but has now been found in more complex, real-world judgements. The similarity of the current and previous stimuli determines the nature of the effect, with more similar items producing assimilation in judgements, while less similarity can cause a contrast effect. Previous research found assimilation in ratings of facial attractiveness, and here, we investigated whether this effect is influenced by the social categories of the faces presented. Over three experiments, participants rated the attractiveness of own- (White) and other-race (Chinese) faces of both sexes that appeared successively. Through blocking trials by race (Experiment 1), sex (Experiment 2), or both dimensions (Experiment 3), we could examine how sequential judgements were altered by the salience of different social categories in face sequences. For sequences that varied in sex alone, own-race faces showed significantly less opposite-sex assimilation (male and female faces perceived as dissimilar), while other-race faces showed equal assimilation for opposite- and same-sex sequences (male and female faces were not differentiated). For sequences that varied in race alone, categorisation by race resulted in no opposite-race assimilation for either sex of face (White and Chinese faces perceived as dissimilar). For sequences that varied in both race and sex, same-category assimilation was significantly greater than opposite-category. Our results suggest that the race of a face represents a superordinate category relative to sex. These findings demonstrate the importance of social categories when considering sequential judgements of faces, and also highlight a novel approach for investigating how multiple social dimensions interact during decision-making