Are we there yet? Australian road safety targets and road traffic crash fatalities

Background: Road safety targets are widely used and provide a basis for evaluating progress in road safety outcomes against a quantified goal. In Australia, a reduction in fatalities from road traffic crashes (RTCs) is a public policy objective: a national target of no more than 5.6 fatalities per 100,000 population by 2010 was set in 2001. The purpose of this paper is to examine the progress Australia and its states and territories have made in reducing RTC fatalities, and to estimate when the 2010 target may be reached by the jurisdictions. Methods. Following a descriptive analysis, univariate time-series models estimate past trends in fatality rates over recent decades. Data for differing time periods are analysed and different trend specifications estimated. Preferred models were selected on the basis of statistical criteria and the period covered by the data. The results of preferred regressions are used to determine out-of-sample forecasts of when the national target may be attained by the jurisdictions. Though there are limitations with the time series approach used, inadequate data precluded the estimation of a full causal/structural model. Results: Statistically significant reductions in fatality rates since 1971 were found for all jurisdictions with the national rate decreasing on average, 3% per year since 1992. However the gains have varied across time and space, with percent changes in fatality rates ranging from an 8% increase in New South Wales 1972-1981 to a 46% decrease in Queensland 1982-1991. Based on an estimate of past trends, it is possible that the target set for 2010 may not be reached nationally, until 2016. Unsurprisingly, the analysis indicated a range of outcomes for the respective state/territory jurisdictions though these results should be interpreted with caution due to different assumptions and length of data. Conclusions: Results indicate that while Australia has been successful over recent decades in reducing RTC mortality, an important gap between aspirations and achievements remains. Moreover, unless there are fairly radical ("trend-breaking") changes in the factors that affect the incidence of RTC fatalities, deaths from RTCs are likely to remain above the national target in some areas of Australia, for years to come

Railway-induced ground vibrations – a review of vehicle effects

This paper is a review of the effect of vehicle characteristics on ground- and track borne-vibrations from railways. It combines traditional theory with modern thinking and uses a range of numerical analysis and experimental results to provide a broad analysis of the subject area. First, the effect of different train types on vibration propagation is investigated. Then, despite not being the focus of this work, numerical approaches to vibration propagation modelling within the track and soil are briefly touched upon. Next an in-depth discussion is presented related to the evolution of numerical models, with analysis of the suitability of various modelling approaches for analysing vehicle effects. The differences between quasi-static and dynamic characteristics are also discussed with insights into defects such as wheel/rail irregularities. Additionally, as an appendix, a modest database of train types are presented along with detailed information related to their physical attributes. It is hoped that this information may provide assistance to future researchers attempting to simulate railway vehicle vibrations. It is concluded that train type and the contact conditions at the wheel/rail interface can be influential in the generation of vibration. Therefore, where possible, when using numerical approach, the vehicle should be modelled in detail. Additionally, it was found that there are a wide variety of modelling approaches capable of simulating train types effects. If non-linear behaviour needs to be included in the model, then time domain simulations are preferable, however if the system can be assumed linear then frequency domain simulations are suitable due to their reduced computational demand

One-loop Yukawa Couplings in Local Models.

We calculate the one-loop Yukawa couplings and threshold corrections for supersymmetric local models of branes at singularities in type IIB string theory. We compute the corrections coming both from wavefunction and vertex renormalisation. The former comes in the IR from conventional field theory running and in the UV from threshold corrections that cause it to run from the winding scale associated to the full Calabi-Yau volume. The vertex correction is naively absent as it appears to correspond to superpotential renormalisation. However, we find that while the Wilsonian superpotential is not renormalised there is a physical vertex correction in the 1PI action associated to light particle loops.Comment: 37 pages, 3 figure