Commercial Satellite Imagery as an Evolving Open-Source Verification Technology: Emerging Trends and Their Impact for Nuclear Nonproliferation Analysis

One evolving and increasingly important means of verification of a State’s compliance with its international security obligations involves the application of publicly available commercial satellite imagery. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) views commercial satellite imagery as “a particularly valuable open source of information.” In 2001, the IAEA established an in-house Satellite Imagery Analysis Unit (SIAU) to provide an independent capability for "the exploitation of satellite imagery which involves imagery analysis, including correlation/fusion with other sources (open source, geospatial, and third party). Commercial satellite imagery not only supports onsite inspection planning and verification of declared activities,” but perhaps its most important role is that it also “increases the possibility of detecting proscribed nuclear activities.” Analysis of imagery derived from low-earth-orbiting observation satellites has a long history dating to the early 1906s in the midst of the Cold War era. That experience provides a sound basis for effectively exploiting the flood of now publicly available commercial satellite imagery data that is now within reach of anyone with Internet access. This paper provides insights on the process of imagery analysis, together with the use of modern geospatial tools like Google Earth, and highlights a few of the potential pitfalls that can lead to erroneous analytical conclusions. A number of illustrative exemplar cases are reviewed to illustrate how academic researchers (including those within the European Union’s Joint Research Centre) and others in Non-Governmental Organizations are now applying commercial satellite imagery in combination with other open source information in innovative and effective ways for various verification purposes. The international constellation of civil imaging satellites is rapidly growing larger, thereby improving the temporal resolution (reducing the time between image acquisitions), but the satellites are also significantly improving in capabilities with regard to both spatial and spectral resolutions. The significant increase, in both the volume and type of raw imagery data that these satellites can provide, and the ease of access to it, will likely lead to a concomitant increase in new non-proliferation relevant knowledge as well. Many of these new developments were previously unanticipated, and they have already had profound effects beyond what anyone would have thought possible just a few years ago. Among those include multi-satellite, multi-sensor synergies deriving from the diversity of sensors and satellites now available, which are exemplified in a few case studies. This paper also updates earlier work on the subject by this author and explains how the many recent significant developments in the commercial satellite imaging domain will play an ever increasingly valuable role for open source nuclear nonproliferation monitoring and verification in the future.JRC.E.8-Nuclear securit

The potential of open source information in supporting Acquisition Pathway Analysis to design IAEA State Level Approaches

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards designed to deter nuclear proliferation are constantly evolving to respond to new challenges. Within its State Level Concept, the IAEA envisions an objective-based and information-driven approach for designing and implementing State Level Approaches (SLAs), using all available measures to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of safeguards. The main Objectives of a SLA are a) to detect undeclared nuclear material or activities in the State, b) to detect undeclared production or processing of nuclear materials in declared facilities or locations outside facilities (LOFs), c) to detect diversion of declared nuclear material in declared facilities or LOFs. Under the SLA, States will be differentiated based upon objective State-Specific Factors that influence the design, planning, conduct and evaluation of safeguards activities. Proposed categories of factors include both technical and legal aspects, spanning from the deployed fuel cycle and the related state's technical capability to the type of safeguards agreements in force and the IAEA experience in implementing safeguards in that state. To design a SLA, the IAEA foresees the use of Acquisition Path Analysis (APA) to identify the plausible routes for acquiring weapons-usable material and to assess their safeguards significance. In order to achieve this goal, APA will have to identify possible acquisition paths, characterize them and eventually prioritise them. This paper will provide an overview of how the use of open source information (here loosely defined as any type of non-classified or proprietary information and including, but not limited to, media sources, government and non-governmental reports and analyses, commercial data, satellite imagery, scientific/technical literature, trade data) can support this activity in the various aspects of a typical APA approach.JRC.E.8-Nuclear securit

The South African Denuclearization Exemplar: Insights for Nonproliferation Monitoring and Verification

South Africa's nuclear disarmament is a unique historical case, notable in part for the dramatic shift from deception to cooperation. The unprecedented transparency it demonstrated in order to convince the international community of the veracity of their disarmament is heralded as an exemplar for verifiable denuclearization. Less known is how this case affords insights into how a nuclear weapon program can be clandestinely hidden by the ambiguity provided by an otherwise completely legitimate, peaceful, nuclear energy program. Using a variety of open sources, including newly declassified internal South African and US government reports, it can be shown that South Africa employed a variety of deceptive tactics before it disarmed, and even for nearly two years after becoming a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. This article reviews that information to derive instructive lessons on the lengths that a nuclear proliferant state might go to conceal its true capabilities and intentions, and to thwart international discovery of the existence and full extent of an existing—or, in this case, a former—nuclear weapon program.JRC.E.8-Nuclear securit

Quantitative Geomorphometrics for Terrain Characterization

Abstract The relationship between geology and landforms has long been established with quantitative analysis dating back more than 100 years. The surface expression of various subsurface lithologies motivates our effort to develop an automated terrain classification algorithm based solely on topographic information. The nexus of several factors has recently provided the opportunity to advance our understanding of the relationship between topography and geology within a rigorous quantitative framework, including recent advances in the field of geomorphometrics (the science of quantitative land surface analysis), the availability of very high resolution (sub meter) digital elevation models, and increasing sophisticated geomorphology and image analysis techniques. In the present study, the geological and geomorphological units in an exemplar study area located in Western U.S. (southern Nevada) have been delineated through an evaluation of a high resolution (1-meter and 0.25-meter) digital elevation model. The morphological aspects of these features obtained from DEMs generated from different sources are compared. Our analysis demonstrates that a 1-meter DEM can provide a terrain characterization that can differentiate underlying lithological types and a very high resolution DEM (0.25 meter) can be used to evaluate fracture patterns

Open Source Analysis in Support to Nonproliferation and Verification Activities: Using the New Media to Derive Unknown New Information

This paper describes evolving techniques that are synergistically being applied in unique ways to make new information discoveries that might otherwise have likely remained unknown. These techniques leverage multiple freely available open source social media venues, as part of the encompassing “New Media,” to derive cueing information for indications of previously unknown and hence undeclared activity. Because such cueing often relates to physical infrastructure (facilities and equipment), and thus has a strong geo-positional component, it can also be followed-up with open source geospatial visualization tools (“geographic browsers” or “virtual globes”) and commercial satellite imagery (with its ever improving spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions) to significantly expand the nuclear nonproliferation knowledge base as will be shown by way of a review of some recent exemplar cases. The methodological application of such techniques can complement other forms of open source data mining for safeguards purposes to improve the likelihood of the remote detection of undeclared nuclear related facilities and/or activities.JRC.E.8-Nuclear securit

Recent Developments Promoting Open-Source Synergy: Emerging Trends and Their Impact for Nuclear Nonproliferation Analysis

A number of recent developments in open-source information technology are creating new opportunities for data fusion for nuclear nonproliferation verification applications, particularly when some aspect of that information includes a geospatial component. Those developments include enhanced “new media” data mining tools and techniques to derive cueing information for indications of previously unknown and hence undeclared activity, coupled with rapidly expanding commercial satellite imaging capabilities and constellations, and new means to efficiently access them. In just the past year, there has been a significant expansion in the number of tools available in the open source information toolkit to draw from structured and unstructured big data, inter alia news media, social media and trade data. New open-source geospatial tools continue to keep pace, making it increasingly easy to follow-up such derived information having a geospatial context. Commercial satellite imagery has already been proven to be an effective and accepted means for nuclear monitoring, verification, and mission planning for IAEA safeguards purposes; it is still a relatively new “open-source” technology for routine information collection and analysis. Commercial satellite imagery (and its requisite processing and analysis) is continuing to evolve and advance as a result of radically new improvements in terms of spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions from increasingly diverse and rapidly growing international satellite constellations. Improved means of access to this multi-resolution imagery diversity (nearing ubiquity, providing near persistent global surveillance in near-real time) will increasingly also provide a new basis for open-source information augmentation with previously unexpected synergistic effects. This paper reviews some key elements of this open-source (r)evolution, updates earlier work on the subject by these authors, and explains (by way of a few exemplar cases) how this expanding and evolving open-source tool-kit is making it easier, in terms of time and cost, to derive and assess new nuclear nonproliferation relevant information.JRC.E.8-Nuclear securit

ESARDA Bulletin n.57

ESARDA is an association initially formed to advance and harmonize research and development for nuclear safeguards whose scope has in recent year expanded as the number and type of its working groups’ activities below indicates. Esarda is currently composed of about 30 laboratories, private and governmental institutions worldwide. Within Esarda (http://esarda.jrc.ec.europa.eu/), a number working groups have been over the years established and active namely: Techniques and Standards for Destructive Analysis, Techniques and Standards for Non-Destructive Analysis, Containment and Surveillance, Novel Approaches / Novel Technologies, Implementation of Safeguards, Verification Technologies and Methodologies, Training and Knowledge Management, Editorial Committee. ESARDA publishes a Bulletin containing scientific and technical articles related to safeguards and verification (and beyond) as well as news and reports related to the ESARDA activities. This publication appears generally twice a year. In addition, thematic special issues are published as proposed by the ESARDA community. The Bulletin Editorial Board is composed of about 10 experts in the various technical and scientific fields related to safeguards. They are all actively engaged in safeguards R&D or in safeguards implementation and other fields. The Editorial Board decides the contents of the Bulletin, selects the papers to be published and reviews them before publication. All ESARDA editorial activities are carried out at JRC in Ispra. Scientific and technical papers submitted for publication in the peer reviewed section are reviewed by independent authors and by members of the Editorial Committee. The bulletin is currently submitted to Thomson Reuters for evaluation in view of citation. ESARDA Bulletin is published jointly by ESARDA and the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission and distributed free of charge to over 1100 registered members, libraries and institutions worldwide. The bulletin will predominantly contain peer review papers which have been either directly submitted to the journal by the scientific community or selected by the editorial committee and chair sessions of Esarda symposia and or Workshops. The bulletin may also contain reports on the activities of various Esarda working groups, tribune, news etc. where appropriate.JRC.G.II.7-Nuclear securit