Final report TransForum WP-046 : images of sustainable development of Dutch agriculture and green space

In the project “Images of sustainable development of Dutch agriculture and green space” three PhD candidates studied the topic of images in sustainable development. Frans Hermans focused on the topic of societal images and their role and influence in innovation projects. The title of his subproject was “Social learning for sustainability in dynamic agricultural innovation networks.” Joost Vervoort explored the topic of “visualisation”, that is, using and producing images for specific purposes, in the context of innovation projects and programmes, in a subproject called “Step into the system: interactive media strategies for the exchange of insights on social-ecological change.” Finally, Dirk van Apeldoorn took a complex adaptive systems approach to images. He modelled various agro-ecosystems to compare images of those systems with the behaviour of those systems. His subproject was called “Modeling resilience of agro-ecosystems.

Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO-driven climate variability at the global scale

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability

Transforum system innovation towards sustainable food. A review

Innovations in the agri-food sector are needed to create a sustainable food supply. Sustainable food supply requires unexpectedly that densely populated regions remain food producers. A Dutch innovation program has aimed at showing the way forward through creating a number of practice and scientific projects. Generic lessons from the scientific projects in this program are likely to be of interest to agricultural innovation in other densely populated regions in the world. Based on the executed scientific projects, generic lessons across the whole innovation program are derived. We found that the agricultural sector requires evolutionary rather than revolutionary changes to reshaping institutions. Measuring sustainability is possible against benchmarks and requires stakeholder agreement on sustainability values. Results show the importance of multiple social views and multiple stakeholder involvement in agricultural innovation. Findings call for flexible goal rather than process-oriented management of innovation. Findings also emphasise the essential role of profit in anchoring sustainable development in business. The results agree with concepts of evolutionary innovation. We conclude that there is no single best solution to making the agri-food sector more sustainable densely populated areas, but that the combination of a range of solutions and approaches is likely to provide the best way forward

Achieving the reduction of disaster risk by better predicting impacts of El Niño and La Niña

Extreme phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show relationships with economic damages due to disasters worldwide. Climate forecasts can predict ENSO months in advance, enabling stakeholders to take disaster risk reducing actions. An understanding of risks during ENSO extremes is key for adequate response. Here, we review the effects of ENSO on disaster risks, including droughts and floods. We show that ENSO may increase the risk of water scarcity and low crop yields globally, and change the probabilities of extreme rainfall, and coastal and river flooding. We provide recommendations on how to reduce risks using ENSO forecasts

KKF-Model Platform Coupling : summary report KKF01b

Nederland bereidt zich voor op een sneller stijgende zeespiegel en een veranderend klimaat. Hiervoor is het Deltaprogramma gestart. Dit deltaprogramma voorziet een serie beslissingen die grote gevolgen zullen hebben voor het beheer van het water in Nederland. Om deze beslissingen zorgvuldig te nemen is informatie nodig over hoe het klimaat en de stijgende zeespiegel dit waterbeheer zullen beïnvloeden. De modellen die de gevolgen van klimaatverandering berekenen zullen daarom met dezelfde klimaat forcering en gekoppeld aan elkaar moeten worden gebruikt. In dit onderzoek is gekeken naar het linken van hydrologische en hydrodynamische modellen – en daaraan gekoppelde modellen die de ontwikkelingen in natuur en landgebruik modelleren -- die het gebied van de Alpen tot en met de Noordzee inclusief Nederland beschrijven

Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century

Water scarcity is rapidly increasing in many regions. In a novel, multi-model assessment, we examine how human interventions (HI: land use and land cover change, man-made reservoirs and human water use) affected monthly river water availability and water scarcity over the period 1971-2010. Here we show that HI drastically change the critical dimensions of water scarcity, aggravating water scarcity for 8.8% (7.4-16.5%) of the global population but alleviating it for another 8.3% (6.4-15.8%). Positive impacts of HI mostly occur upstream, whereas HI aggravate water scarcity downstream; HI cause water scarcity to travel downstream. Attribution of water scarcity changes to HI components is complex and varies among the hydrological models. Seasonal variation in impacts and dominant HI components is also substantial. A thorough consideration of the spatially and temporally varying interactions among HI components and of uncertainties is therefore crucial for the success of water scarcity adaptation by HI

You escaped! How did you learn during gameplay?

This study investigates the influence of the educational game design elements immersion, collaboration and debriefing, on fostering learning with educational escape rooms. We based the design of the escape room on an educational game design framework that aligns the learning goal and the game goal, that is, escaping from the room. One-hundred-and-twenty-six students, aged between 16 and 20 played the escape room. Measures for learning were pre-and post-tests. The game experience was measured through questionnaires, classroom observations and interviews with students and teachers. The results show a knowledge gain between pre-and post-test. Correlational analysis showed that all three design elements contributed to students' appreciation of the escape room, whereas only immersion had a direct contribution to knowledge gain. Based on the qualitative data it appeared that the used escape boxes contributed most to perceived immersion. Immersion helps students focus on each other and the tasks. Also, a narrative with distinct roles for each student helped to evoke immersion. Unexpectedly, these roles also scaffolded collaboration except for students in the school that engaged in a collaborative learning pedagogy. The study confirms the usability of the framework for game designs, based on theories for the design of physical and hybrid educational games. Practitioner notes What is already known about this topic The escape room as a learning environment appeals to teachers of different disciplines, ages, gender and teaching experiences. Teachers implement escape rooms to create active (hybrid) learning spaces, where learners need a combination of knowledge and skills to solve the subject-based activities. Students and teachers perceive that while participating in escape rooms, students are more engaged, active and learn more compared to regular classes. The assumption is that escape rooms support collaboration and automatically collaborative learning. Review studies on educational escape rooms show that a systematic evaluation is usually absent, disputable or indicates no knowledge gain. Teachers design their educational escape rooms based on digital escape games and/or their experience as players of escape rooms. For digital educational games, important game design aspects are researched. Three main challenges in designing educational games are (1) the participants' transition from the real world to the game world, (2) the alignment of game design aspects and educational aspects and (3) the transfer from attained experiences and knowledge back into the real world. What this paper adds This paper evaluates an educational game design framework for escape rooms, focussing on the above-mentioned main challenges in designing educational games. It investigates the influence of the educational game design elements immersion, collaboration and debriefing, on fostering learning with a hybrid educational escape room. It informs that all three design elements contributed to students' appreciation of the escape room, whereas only immersion had a direct contribution to knowledge gain. The used hybrid escape boxes contributed most to the immersion; scaffolding students to focus on each other and the tasks. Students' collaboration was successfully fostered. However, it scarcely led to collaborative learning during gameplay, due to lack of discussion and reflection needed for deeper understanding. Implications for practice and/or policy The educational escape game framework would help educators creating immersive games, which not only confront learners with meaningful contexts but also give learning gains. The educational escape game framework would help researchers focussing on important and difficult aspects of designing and implementing educational escape rooms to develop and research more effective escape rooms. In guidelines on creating immersion in educational escape games, the notion of physical objects is lacking. In this hybrid escape room, the physical objects such as escape boxes were the most powerful in creating immersion. In addition, the use of sound design in escape games in classrooms seems overrated. Debriefing after the gameplay is perceived necessary to discuss common misunderstandings, to make connections between the topics in various puzzles and to add more content to interest high-achieving students