28 research outputs found
Cooperation and Self-Regulation in a Model of Agents Playing Different Games
A simple model for cooperation between "selfish" agents, which play an
extended version of the Prisoner's Dilemma(PD) game, in which they use
arbitrary payoffs, is presented and studied. A continuous variable,
representing the probability of cooperation, [0,1], is assigned to
each agent at time . At each time step a pair of agents, chosen at
random, interact by playing the game. The players update their using a
criteria based on the comparison of their utilities with the simplest estimate
for expected income. The agents have no memory and use strategies not based on
direct reciprocity nor 'tags'. Depending on the payoff matrix, the systems
self-organizes - after a transient - into stationary states characterized by
their average probability of cooperation and average equilibrium
per-capita-income . It turns out that the model
exhibit some results that contradict the intuition. In particular, some games
which - {\it a priory}- seems to favor defection most, may produce a relatively
high degree of cooperation. Conversely, other games, which one would bet that
lead to maximum cooperation, indeed are not the optimal for producing
cooperation.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures, keybords: Complex adaptive systems, Agent-based
models, Social system
Danos da Mosca-Branca Bemisia Tabaci (Genn.) e distribuição vertical das ninfas em cultivares de soja em casa de vegetação
Obesity trends and body mass index changes after starting antiretroviral treatment : the Swiss HIV Cohort Study
BACKGROUND: The factors that contribute to increasing obesity rates in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive persons and to body mass index (BMI) increase that typically occurs after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) are incompletely characterized.
METHODS: We describe BMI trends in the entire Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) population and investigate the effects of demographics, HIV-related factors, and ART on BMI change in participants with data available before and 4 years after first starting ART.
RESULTS: In the SHCS, overweight/obesity prevalence increased from 13% in 1990 (n = 1641) to 38% in 2012 (n = 8150). In the participants starting ART (n = 1601), mean BMI increase was 0.92 kg/m(2) per year (95% confidence interval, .83-1.0) during year 0-1 and 0.31 kg/m(2) per year (0.29-0.34) during years 1-4. In multivariable analyses, annualized BMI change during year 0-1 was associated with older age (0.15 [0.06-0.24] kg/m(2)) and CD4 nadir <199 cells/µL compared to nadir >350 (P < .001). Annualized BMI change during years 1-4 was associated with CD4 nadir <100 cells/µL compared to nadir >350 (P = .001) and black compared to white ethnicity (0.28 [0.16-0.37] kg/m(2)). Individual ART combinations differed little in their contribution to BMI change.
CONCLUSIONS: Increasing obesity rates in the SHCS over time occurred at the same time as aging of the SHCS population, demographic changes, earlier ART start, and increasingly widespread ART coverage. Body mass index increase after ART start was typically biphasic, the BMI increase in year 0-1 being as large as the increase in years 1-4 combined. The effect of ART regimen on BMI change was limited
A refletância na estimativa do efeito de fungicidas no controle da ferrugem asiática da soja
Efeito da severidade de oídio e crestamento foliar de cercospora na produtividade da cultura da soja
Non-AIDS defining cancers in the D:A:D Study-time trends and predictors of survival : a cohort study
BACKGROUND:Non-AIDS defining cancers (NADC) are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive individuals. Using data from a large international cohort of HIV-positive individuals, we described the incidence of NADC from 2004-2010, and described subsequent mortality and predictors of these.METHODS:Individuals were followed from 1st January 2004/enrolment in study, until the earliest of a new NADC, 1st February 2010, death or six months after the patient's last visit. Incidence rates were estimated for each year of follow-up, overall and stratified by gender, age and mode of HIV acquisition. Cumulative risk of mortality following NADC diagnosis was summarised using Kaplan-Meier methods, with follow-up for these analyses from the date of NADC diagnosis until the patient's death, 1st February 2010 or 6 months after the patient's last visit. Factors associated with mortality following NADC diagnosis were identified using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression.RESULTS:Over 176,775 person-years (PY), 880 (2.1%) patients developed a new NADC (incidence: 4.98/1000PY [95% confidence interval 4.65, 5.31]). Over a third of these patients (327, 37.2%) had died by 1st February 2010. Time trends for lung cancer, anal cancer and Hodgkin's lymphoma were broadly consistent. Kaplan-Meier cumulative mortality estimates at 1, 3 and 5 years after NADC diagnosis were 28.2% [95% CI 25.1-31.2], 42.0% [38.2-45.8] and 47.3% [42.4-52.2], respectively. Significant predictors of poorer survival after diagnosis of NADC were lung cancer (compared to other cancer types), male gender, non-white ethnicity, and smoking status. Later year of diagnosis and higher CD4 count at NADC diagnosis were associated with improved survival. The incidence of NADC remained stable over the period 2004-2010 in this large observational cohort.CONCLUSIONS:The prognosis after diagnosis of NADC, in particular lung cancer and disseminated cancer, is poor but has improved somewhat over time. Modifiable risk factors, such as smoking and low CD4 counts, were associated with mortality following a diagnosis of NADC
Malignant neoplasms of the uterus following radiation therapy for cervical carcinoma: a clinical study of 47 cases
How good are supply function equilibrium models: an empirical analysis of the ERCOT balancing market
We present an empirical analysis of a supply function equilibrium model in the Texas spot electricity market. We derive conditions for optimal bidding behavior in a spot market with ex ante bilaterally contracted sales. By estimating costs, we are able to derive a set of ex post-and ex ante-optimal supply functions and use a non-parametric behavioral model to compare our theoretically optimal supply functions to actual offers made. Our results show that with the exception of the largest generators, firms make offers with markups and markdowns far in excess of what a model of profit-maximizing behavior suggests. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007Electricity markets, Supply function equilibrium, ERCOT, Market power,