Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in the Elderly Based on Administrative Databases: Change in Immunization Habit as a Marker for Bias

Administrative databases provide efficient methods to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against severe outcomes in the elderly but are prone to intractable bias. This study returns to one of the linked population databases by which IVE against hospitalization and death in the elderly was first assessed. We explore IVE across six more recent influenza seasons, including periods before, during, and after peak activity to identify potential markers for bias.Acute respiratory hospitalization and all-cause mortality were compared between immunized/non-immunized community-dwelling seniors ≥65 years through administrative databases in Manitoba, Canada between 2000-01 and 2005-06. IVE was compared during pre-season/influenza/post-season periods through logistic regression with multivariable adjustment (age/sex/income/residence/prior influenza or pneumococcal immunization/medical visits/comorbidity), stratification based on prior influenza immunization history, and propensity scores. Analysis during pre-season periods assessed baseline differences between immunized and unimmunized groups. The study population included ∼140,000 seniors, of whom 50-60% were immunized annually. Adjustment for key covariates and use of propensity scores consistently increased IVE. Estimates were paradoxically higher pre-season and for all-cause mortality vs. acute respiratory hospitalization. Stratified analysis showed that those twice consecutively and currently immunized were always at significantly lower hospitalization/mortality risk with odds ratios (OR) of 0.60 [95%CI0.48-0.75] and 0.58 [0.53-0.64] pre-season and 0.77 [0.69-0.86] and 0.71 [0.66-0.77] during influenza circulation, relative to the consistently unimmunized. Conversely, those forgoing immunization when twice previously immunized were always at significantly higher hospitalization/mortality risk with OR of 1.41 [1.14-1.73] and 2.45 [2.21-2.72] pre-season and 1.21 [1.03-1.43] and 1.78 [1.61-1.96] during influenza circulation.The most pronounced IVE estimates were paradoxically observed pre-season, indicating bias tending to over-estimate vaccine protection. Change in immunization habit from that of the prior two years may be a marker for this bias in administrative data sets; however, no analytic technique explored could adjust for its influence. Improved methods to achieve valid interpretation of protection in the elderly are needed

Evaluation of a New Chromogenic Agar Medium for Detection of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli (STEC) and Relative Prevalences of O157 and Non-O157 STEC in Manitoba, Canada

This study assesses the detection performance of CHROMagar STEC medium relative to a reference cytotoxin assay and describes the current relative prevalence of O157 and non-O157 Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) serotypes within the province of Manitoba, Canada. Over a 10-month period, 205 nonfrozen routine stool submissions to Cadham Provincial Laboratory (CPL) were used to assess the performance of CHROMagar STEC. Of the 205 stools, 14 were identified as true positives by a cytotoxin assay, with resultant CHROMagar STEC sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive and negative predictive values of 85.7%, 95.8%, 60.0%, and 98.9%, respectively. Using a separate panel of 111 STEC strains, CHROMagar STEC was shown to support the growth of 96 (86.5%) isolates. To assess relative prevalence, attempts were made to isolate by any means all STEC strains identified at CPL over a 17-month period. Of 49 isolates (representing 86.0% of all STEC infections detected), only 28.6% were O157 STEC strains. Of the 35 non-O157 STEC strains, 29 were subjected to further molecular analysis. In contrast to earlier results from our area, carriage of stx2 appears to have increased. Overall, although CHROMagar STEC is not recommended as a primary screen, our results indicate that it is an effective supplemental medium for the isolation of probable STEC strains. Increased isolation of these serotypes is warranted to better understand their prevalence, clinical characteristics, and epidemiology and aid in the development or enhancement of food safety control programs targeting all STEC serotypes

Retrospective TREC testing of newborns with Severe Combined Immunodeficiency and other primary immunodeficiency diseases

In Manitoba, Canada, the overall incidence of Severe Combined Immunodeficiency (SCID) is three-fold higher than the national average, with SCID overrepresented in two population groups: Mennonites and First Nations of Northern Cree ancestries. T-cell receptor excision circle (TREC) assay is being used increasingly for neonatal screening for SCID in North America. However, the majority of SCID patients in Manitoba are T-cell-positive. Therefore it is likely that the TREC assay will not identify these infants. The goal of this study was to blindly and retrospectively perform TREC analysis in confirmed SCID patients using archived Guthrie cards. Thirteen SCID patients were tested: 5 T-negative SCID (3 with adenosine deaminase deficiency, 1 with CD3δ deficiency, and 1 unclassified) and 8 T-positive SCID (5 with zeta chain-associated protein kinase (ZAP70) deficiency and 3 with inhibitor of kappa light polypeptide gene enhancer in B-cells, kinase beta (IKKβ) deficiency). As a non-SCID patient group, 5 Primary Immunodeficiency Disease (PID) patients were studied: 1 T-negative PID (cartilage-hair hypoplasia) and 4 T-positive PID (2 common immune deficiency (CID), 1 Wiskott–Aldrich syndrome, and 1 X-linked lymphoproliferative disease). Both patient groups required hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. In addition, randomly-selected de-identified controls (n = 982) were tested. Results: all T-negative SCID and PID had zero TRECs. Low-TRECs were identified in 2 ZAP70 siblings, 1 CID patient as well as 5 preterm, 1 twin, and 4 de-identified controls. Conclusions: TREC method will identify T-negative SCID and T-negative PID. To identify other SCID babies, newborn screening in Manitoba must include supplemental targeted screening for ethnic-specific mutations

Serological Studies of West Nile Virus in a Liver Transplant Population

BACKGROUND: Solid organ transplant populations are at increased risk for serious clinical manifestations of West Nile virus (WNV) infection

Equations to predict antimicrobial minimum inhibitory concentrations in Neisseria gonorrhoeae using molecular antimicrobial resistance determinants

The emergence of Neisseria gonorrhoeae strains that are resistant to azithromycin and extended-spectrum cephalosporins represents a public health threat, that of untreatable gonorrhea infections. Multivariate regression modeling was used to determine the contributions of molecular antimicrobial resistance determinants to the overall antimicrobial MICs for ceftriaxone, cefixime, azithromycin, tetracycline, ciprofloxacin, and penicillin. A training data set consisting of 1,280 N. gonorrhoeae strains was used to generate regression equations which were then applied to validation data sets of Canadian (n = 1,095) and international (n = 431) strains. The predicted MICs for extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ceftriaxone and cefixime) were fully explained by 5 amino acid substitutions in PenA, A311V, A501P/T/V, N513Y, A517G, and G543S; the presence of a disrupted mtrR promoter; and the PorB G120 and PonA L421P mutations. The correlation of predicted MICs within one doubling dilution to phenotypically determined MICs of the Canadian validation data set was 95.0% for ceftriaxone, 95.6% for cefixime, 91.4% for azithromycin, 98.2% for tetracycline, 90.4% for ciprofloxacin, and 92.3% for penicillin, with an overall sensitivity of 99.9% and specificity of 97.1%. The correlations of predicted MIC values to the phenotypically determined MICs were similar to those from phenotype MIC-only comparison studies. The ability to acquire detailed antimicrobial resistance information directly from molecular data will facilitate the transition to whole-genome sequencing analysis from phenotypic testing and can fill the surveillance gap in an era of increased reliance on nucleic acid assay testing (NAAT) diagnostics to better monitor the dynamics of N. gonorrhoeae

Equations to predict antimicrobial minimum inhibitory concentrations in Neisseria gonorrhoeae using molecular antimicrobial resistance determinants

The emergence of Neisseria gonorrhoeae strains that are resistant to azithromycin and extended-spectrum cephalosporins represents a public health threat, that of untreatable gonorrhea infections. Multivariate regression modeling was used to determine the contributions of molecular antimicrobial resistance determinants to the overall antimicrobial MICs for ceftriaxone, cefixime, azithromycin, tetracycline, ciprofloxacin, and penicillin. A training data set consisting of 1,280 N. gonorrhoeae strains was used to generate regression equations which were then applied to validation data sets of Canadian (n = 1,095) and international (n = 431) strains. The predicted MICs for extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ceftriaxone and cefixime) were fully explained by 5 amino acid substitutions in PenA, A311V, A501P/T/V, N513Y, A517G, and G543S; the presence of a disrupted mtrR promoter; and the PorB G120 and PonA L421P mutations. The correlation of predicted MICs within one doubling dilution to phenotypically determined MICs of the Canadian validation data set was 95.0% for ceftriaxone, 95.6% for cefixime, 91.4% for azithromycin, 98.2% for tetracycline, 90.4% for ciprofloxacin, and 92.3% for penicillin, with an overall sensitivity of 99.9% and specificity of 97.1%. The correlations of predicted MIC values to the phenotypically determined MICs were similar to those from phenotype MIC-only comparison studies. The ability to acquire detailed antimicrobial resistance information directly from molecular data will facilitate the transition to whole-genome sequencing analysis from phenotypic testing and can fill the surveillance gap in an era of increased reliance on nucleic acid assay testing (NAAT) diagnostics to better monitor the dynamics of N. gonorrhoeae

The relationship of meteorological conditions to the epidemic activity of respiratory syncytial virus

Our aim was to obtain knowledge of how meteorological conditions affect community epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection. To this end we recorded year-round RSV activity in nine cities that differ markedly in geographic location and climate. We correlated local weather conditions with weekly or monthly RSV cases. We reviewed similar reports from other areas varying in climate. Weekly RSV activity was related to temperature in a bimodal fashion, with peaks of activity at temperatures above 24–30°C and at 2–6°C. RSV activity was also greatest at 45–65% relative humidity. RSV activity was inversely related to UVB radiance at three sites where this could be tested. At sites with persistently warm temperatures and high humidity, RSV activity was continuous throughout the year, peaking in summer and early autumn. In temperate climates, RSV activity was maximal during winter, correlating with lower temperatures. In areas where temperatures remained colder throughout the year, RSV activity again became nearly continuous. Community activity of RSV is substantial when both ambient temperatures and absolute humidity are very high, perhaps reflecting greater stability of RSV in aerosols. Transmission of RSV in cooler climates is inversely related to temperature possibly as a result of increased stability of the virus in secretions in the colder environment. UVB radiation may inactivate virus in the environment, or influence susceptibility to RSV by altering host resistance