Handling Attrition in Longitudinal Studies: The Case for Refreshment Samples

Panel studies typically suffer from attrition, which reduces sample size and can result in biased inferences. It is impossible to know whether or not the attrition causes bias from the observed panel data alone. Refreshment samples - new, randomly sampled respondents given the questionnaire at the same time as a subsequent wave of the panel - offer information that can be used to diagnose and adjust for bias due to attrition. We review and bolster the case for the use of refreshment samples in panel studies. We include examples of both a fully Bayesian approach for analyzing the concatenated panel and refreshment data, and a multiple imputation approach for analyzing only the original panel. For the latter, we document a positive bias in the usual multiple imputation variance estimator. We present models appropriate for three waves and two refreshment samples, including nonterminal attrition. We illustrate the three-wave analysis using the 2007-2008 Associated Press-Yahoo! News Election Poll.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-STS414 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Near-UV OH Prompt Emission in the Innermost Coma of 103P/Hartley 2

The Deep Impact spacecraft fly-by of comet 103P/Hartley 2 occurred on 2010 November 4, one week after perihelion with a closest approach (CA) distance of about 700 km. We used narrowband images obtained by the Medium Resolution Imager (MRI) onboard the spacecraft to study the gas and dust in the innermost coma. We derived an overall dust reddening of 15\%/100 nm between 345 and 749 nm and identified a blue enhancement in the dust coma in the sunward direction within 5 km from the nucleus, which we interpret as a localized enrichment in water ice. OH column density maps show an anti-sunward enhancement throughout the encounter except for the highest resolution images, acquired at CA, where a radial jet becomes visible in the innermost coma, extending up to 12 km from the nucleus. The OH distribution in the inner coma is very different from that expected for a fragment species. Instead, it correlates well with the water vapor map derived by the HRI-IR instrument onboard Deep Impact \citep{AHearn2011}. Radial profiles of the OH column density and derived water production rates show an excess of OH emission during CA that cannot be explained with pure fluorescence. We attribute this excess to a prompt emission process where photodissociation of H$_2$O directly produces excited OH*($A^2\it{\Sigma}^+$) radicals. Our observations provide the first direct imaging of Near-UV prompt emission of OH. We therefore suggest the use of a dedicated filter centered at 318.8 nm to directly trace the water in the coma of comets.Comment: 21 page

Ab Initio Calculation of Impurity Effects in Copper Oxide Materials

We describe a method for calculating, within density functional theory, the electronic structure associated with typical defects which substitute for Cu in the CuO2 planes of high-Tc superconducting materials. The focus is primarily on Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8, the material on which most STM measurements of impurity resonances in the superconducting state have been performed. The magnitudes of the effective potentials found for Zn, Ni and vacancies on the in-plane Cu sites in this host material are remarkably consistent with phenomenological fits of potential scattering models to STM resonance energies. The effective potential ranges are quite short, of order 1 A with weak long range tails, in contrast to some current models of extended potentials which attempt to fit STM data. For the case of Zn and Cu vacancies, the effective potentials are strongly repulsive, and states on the impurity site near the Fermi level are simply removed. The local density of states (LDOS) just above the impurity is nevertheless found to be a maximum in the case of Zn and a local minimum in case of the vacancy, in agreement with experiment. The Zn and Cu vacancy patterns are explained as due to the long-range tails of the effective impurity potential at the sample surface. The case of Ni is richer due to the Ni atom's strong hybridization with states near the Fermi level; in particular, the short range part of the potential is attractive, and the LDOS is found to vary rapidly with distance from the surface and from the impurity site. We propose that the current controversy surrounding the observed STM patterns can be resolved by properly accounting for the effective impurity potentials and wave-functions near the cuprate surface. Other aspects of the impurity states for all three species are discussed.Comment: 37 pp. pdf including figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Water Ice and Dust in the Innermost Coma of Comet 103P/Hartley 2

On November 4th, 2010, the Deep Impact eXtended Investigation (DIXI) successfully encountered comet 103P/Hartley 2, when it was at a heliocentric distance of 1.06 AU. Spatially resolved near-IR spectra of comet Hartley 2 were acquired in the 1.05-4.83 micron wavelength range using the HRI-IR spectrometer. We present spectral maps of the inner ~10 kilometers of the coma collected 7 minutes and 23 minutes after closest approach. The extracted reflectance spectra include well-defined absorption bands near 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 micron consistent in position, bandwidth, and shape with the presence of water ice grains. Using Hapke's radiative transfer model, we characterize the type of mixing (areal vs. intimate), relative abundance, grain size, and spatial distribution of water ice and refractories. Our modeling suggests that the dust, which dominates the innermost coma of Hartley 2 and is at a temperature of 300K, is thermally and physically decoupled from the fine-grained water ice particles, which are on the order of 1 micron in size. The strong correlation between the water ice, dust, and CO2 spatial distribution supports the concept that CO2 gas drags the water ice and dust grains from the nucleus. Once in the coma, the water ice begins subliming while the dust is in a constant outflow. The derived water ice scale-length is compatible with the lifetimes expected for 1-micron pure water ice grains at 1 AU, if velocities are near 0.5 m/s. Such velocities, about three order of magnitudes lower than the expansion velocities expected for isolated 1-micron water ice particles [Hanner, 1981; Whipple, 1951], suggest that the observed water ice grains are likely aggregates.Comment: 51 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in Icaru

Predicate Abstraction for Linked Data Structures

We present Alias Refinement Types (ART), a new approach to the verification of correctness properties of linked data structures. While there are many techniques for checking that a heap-manipulating program adheres to its specification, they often require that the programmer annotate the behavior of each procedure, for example, in the form of loop invariants and pre- and post-conditions. Predicate abstraction would be an attractive abstract domain for performing invariant inference, existing techniques are not able to reason about the heap with enough precision to verify functional properties of data structure manipulating programs. In this paper, we propose a technique that lifts predicate abstraction to the heap by factoring the analysis of data structures into two orthogonal components: (1) Alias Types, which reason about the physical shape of heap structures, and (2) Refinement Types, which use simple predicates from an SMT decidable theory to capture the logical or semantic properties of the structures. We prove ART sound by translating types into separation logic assertions, thus translating typing derivations in ART into separation logic proofs. We evaluate ART by implementing a tool that performs type inference for an imperative language, and empirically show, using a suite of data-structure benchmarks, that ART requires only 21% of the annotations needed by other state-of-the-art verification techniques